NorthShoreWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I've got the dreaded DRY SLOT blues... Cheer up. You are in the green from the high end of the scale...that's 35-40 inches! That map isn't right though. Suffolk County goes from 20" to 0" to 20" in just a few miles. There isn't going to be a snow hole like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Actually 2-3" of the liquid is snow on the 4KM NAM. Yeh deeper Orange , is that RED in Monmouth county at nite snow ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well the Euro was colder.. just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 From what is being said in the NE forum...RGEM is somewhat east of NAM and very similar to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think the big question will be where is the cutoff for this west and northwest of the city? I think it will go from alot to a little over a relatively short distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow the NAM destroys NW areas.. Obviously over done but cool to look at nonetheless.. 30-40" lol smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Cheer up. You are in the green from the high end of the scale...that's 35-40 inches! That map isn't right though. Suffolk County goes from 20" to 0" to 20" in just a few miles. There isn't going to be a snow hole like that. Those snow depth maps are awful and are always unreliable. That outcome is literally impossible-my town literally goes from 1" to 20" one end to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 RGEM a little weaker/warmer compared to the NAM. But still good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 From what is being said in the NE forum...RGEM is somewhat east of NAM and very similar to the EURO. RGEM=4KM NAM in terms of storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RGEM looks well east of the nam to me 12 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/591_100.gif 24 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif 36 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/593_100.gif 48 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Those snow depth maps are awful and are always unreliable. That outcome is literally impossible-my town literally goes from 1" to 20" one end to the other. I've found the one that earthlight just posted from PSU E-Wall to be more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hey all, With a significant to potentially historic snow event on the way, I thought this would be a good time to review proper snow measuring techniques so that we have the most accurate records for this storm (and because significant drifting may occur, making accurate measurements difficult). http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/program_areas/snow_spotters/SnowMeasurement.pdf Before the First Snow Place your snowboard outside. A snowboard can be any lightly colored board that is about 2 feet by 2 feet. A piece of plywood painted white works very well. Choose a location that is away from trees, buildings, and shadows. Try to avoid areas that are known to be prone to drifting. Mark the location of the snowboard with a stake so you can find it after a fresh snowfall. Measuring Snowfall Snowfall is measured to the nearest tenth of an inch. Measure the greatest amount of snowfall that has accumulated on your snowboard since the last observation. You can measure on a wooden deck or ground if a snowboard is not available. Snowfall should not be measured more than 4 times in 24 hours. You can measure the hourly snowfall rate, but do not clean off your board each hour. Only clean off the board when you take one of the four daily measurements. Once the snow ends, add up the measurements from each time the snowboard was cleaned to reach a storm total. Special cases: - Snow falls and accumulates on the snowboard, but then melts. In this case, the snowfall is the greatest depth of snow observed on the board before it begins to melt. If this occurs several times, measure the snowfall after each snow shower and add each measurement for the total snowfall. - Snow falls and melts continuously on the board. In this case, if the snow never reaches a depth of a tenth of an inch, then a trace of snowfall is recorded. - Snow has blown or drifted onto the snowboard. In this case, take several measurements from around the yard where the snow has not drifted, being careful only to measure new snow. Take an average of the various measurements to arrive at a total. - Sleet counts towards total snowfall, freezing rain accumulation does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 The SREF mean now has probability of 12" up to 50% in NYC http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREFPROBNE_9z/f12s51.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RGEM looks well east of the nam to me 12 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/591_100.gif 24 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif 36 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/593_100.gif 48 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Yeah looks East of NAM and basically passes over benchmark.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah looks East of NAM and basically passes over benchmark.... NAM was likely over done but definitely an encouraging leap to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wonder if they will keep the 4-10" forecast for parts of central nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Those snow depth maps are awful and are always unreliable. That outcome is literally impossible-my town literally goes from 1" to 20" one end to the other. It makes more sense by you becasue the lower totals are over the ocean. But I agree that map is full of holes, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So far GFS is a somewhat colder and a tick NW with precip shield...low placement similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wonder if they will keep the 4-10" forecast for parts of central nj. They won't do anything until after seeing the new GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is definitely a tick northwest of the 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is a tad NE of the NAM at hr 27, looks close at 500mb. Moderate snows over the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Snowing HR 30 - HR 36 . 850 `S still south of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Through 42 it's stronger...a hair northwest..and better organized with the CCB. Not extreme like the NAM...but still a good hit for everybody. Eastern LI getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Based off the NAM 4k looks like the bigger snows north of trenton NJ-Interstate 195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wonder if they will keep the 4-10" forecast for parts of central nj. they should because its one NAM run...look at the RGEM, the NAM almost always is overdone, central jersey has never been the hotspot, I would think maybe a revise to 6-12 inches is appropriate if the GFS and Euro hold serve but really why should they go more right now. There are still concerns about how much is lost to rain as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Best deform banding stays east of the city. Much colder for Long Island, bad for NJ and far NW sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 HR 42 , its all SNOW . 850`S never get N or Monmouth County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Best deform banding stays east of the city. Much colder for Long Island, bad for NJ and far NW sections I wouldn't call it bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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