IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the NAM always overdoes precip so keep that in mind and love that people are even commenting on it after trashing it Honestly, one could argue that the totals would be even higher. You're going to see some 3-5" per hour rates in the strongest banding. The CCB stays over us for 12-14 hours. You do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 just gazed at the skew-t's at JFK from hours 39-48...the ratios might be pretty damn good (by that i mean amazing) at h7 the temps are about -12...i think thats about as perfect as it gets for snow growth...would love to see those cool charts that show omega That would be good, along with a lot of lift that's occurring. I'd think maybe 12 or 13:1 with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the NAM always overdoes precip so keep that in mind and love that people are even commenting on it after trashing it Still think the nws knocks you down to 3-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If that warm nose is close enough to 0C, then the heavy precip should help to cool that off, IMO. Of course, a lack of heavy precip would not be able to do that, but considering what we're seeing on the models now... for JFK its not even close...probably +2 or so and its fairly thick EDIT - its not letting save the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The QPF on the Euro 2.50 SREF 1.75 NAM 3.0 IF 25 perc of it was lost to liq You average that out , still gets you to 17 in NYC . A foot and half Blizzard . not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So we start 12z off very well. Timing still looking the best snows occur between 5-7PM Fri and 4-6AM Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If that warm nose is close enough to 0C, then the heavy precip should help to cool that off, IMO. Of course, a lack of heavy precip would not be able to do that, but considering what we're seeing on the models now... The hardest part of this storm forecasting for people who want to know timing all comes down to if that changeover occurs, the wind directions on the models east of 060 which is usually the magic number here for a changeover suggest from 15-22Z or so we should turn over but I'm not so sure if that period is a bit longer or does not happen at all. I'm worried about some sort of crazy heavy band swinging across early in the event during the mid AM that kills any chance of a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 4km changes the coast to snow at around 6pm tomorrow followed by a CCB pounding tomorrow night across the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the NAM always overdoes precip so keep that in mind and love that people are even commenting on it after trashing it People are excited because of trend to the Euro and more amplified modeling. And the liquid output isn't much different than other models like the Euro. If this develops in time and the CCB pivots overhead, a lot of people will be very, very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What time does it actually start? Early friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So we start 12z off very well. Timing still looking the best snows occur between 5-7PM Fri and 4-6AM Sat. 12z NAM has the steady snow starting around hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow! Thanks to all who make this site remarkable to follow! Thought we were out of the game in the Northern Pocono/Scranton area but that NAM Clown map looks promising! Taking it with a grain of salt but starting to think we are going to do better than the 1-2 inches on the local news this AM-LOL. Wnep always downplays storms especially the mornin and afternoon Wx hosts. But however I would watch out for that cut off gradient which usually screws anyone nw of the Pocono plateau in storms with this path. Think back to 2010/2011. Monmouth county nj had more than 30 inches on the ground and wilkes barre had a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The hardest part of this storm forecasting for people who want to know timing all comes down to if that changeover occurs, the wind directions on the models east of 060 which is usually the magic number here for a changeover suggest from 15-22Z or so we should turn over but I'm not so sure if that period is a bit longer or does not happen at all. I'm worried about some sort of crazy heavy band swinging across early in the event during the mid AM that kills any chance of a changeover. I feel the same way. I posted the NAM on facebook and everyone is asking me about changeover (to snow) times, and I just said around 5 p.m....it's not an easy forecast. I'd be pretty surprised if Long Island sees no rain and no sleet. But models do have the tendency to underestimate ageostrophic flow in bombing coastal storms, especially considering that once the primary dies, we will have full access to the cold source region from the high to the north, only aiding in cold air advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What time does it actually start? Early friday? I would say early afternoon NW of the city and during the evening commute for the city and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The hardest part of this storm forecasting for people who want to know timing all comes down to if that changeover occurs, the wind directions on the models east of 060 which is usually the magic number here for a changeover suggest from 15-22Z or so we should turn over but I'm not so sure if that period is a bit longer or does not happen at all. I'm worried about some sort of crazy heavy band swinging across early in the event during the mid AM that kills any chance of a changeover. Could be similar to the situation that happened on 12/5/03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mother Of God.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro and nam are almost similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro and nam are almost similar The NAM actually has more snow than the Euro west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It will be interesting to see what Upton does with the forecast after the 12Z GFS and EURO runs if they are similar to the NAM's precip forecasts .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The RGEM looks like it may be coming west as well through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thundersnow possible in this type of storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 4km is about .75-1.00 mixed or rain for front end coastal areas. The rest is all snow after about 5 pm or so. The CCB placement would be ideal for the area to really get blasted with very heavy snow tomorrow night. P-type concerns front end CCB dynamite at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z NAM has the steady snow starting around hr 24 Based off the latest the real stuff and accumulating snows for the NYC/NJ metro and c-nj areas should occur between 4P and 6PM give or take an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thundersnow possible in this type of storm?? Yes, thundersnow will be possible in any of the good banding, along with snowfall rates exceeding 3" per hour locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Based off the latest the real stuff and accumulating snows for the NYC/NJ metro and c-nj areas should occur between 4P and 6PM give or take an hour. The simulated radar has the precip starting around here late morning as snow and staying all snow NW of the city. The city eastward briefly changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 With a CCB like that I wouldn't be too concerned about losing on too much accumulation. This would still be epic for just about everyone. The highest total in a scenario like this could actually be where there's mixing initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 4km is about .75-1.00 mixed or rain for front end coastal areas. The rest is all snow after about 5 pm or so. The CCB placement would be ideal for the area to really get blasted with very heavy snow tomorrow night. P-type concerns front end ptot35.gif CCB dynamite at night ptot60.gif NYC loses .50 - .75 to rain or mixed on this , 1.75- 2 is Snow .. total qpf is around 3 so 15- 20 is possible , would match Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think it could trend colder than we think to be honest, I'm not buying that extra warmth the nam has. It is much colder compared to the 06z run so it could head that way. We are nearing ground zero here so the nam could finally be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NYC loses .50 - .75 to rain or mixed on this , 1.75- 2 is Snow .. total qpf is around 3 so 15- 20 is possible , would match EuroActually 2-3" of the liquid is snow on the 4KM NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Holy crap guys, this storm is reminding me of the Dec 2010 Boxing Day Blizzard. Wishing I was back in NYC just for the next couple of days. You better enjoy it and take some good pics for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.