SnowDemon Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The precipitation looks to be racing northwards as well. Early start possible? Is it me or do all of the major storms seem to arrive earlier than progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 fyi our dp right now in knyc is 11. thats is some fresh cold/dry air. Granted waa will make inroads, but it isn't a terrible place to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 They look at what the GFS originally forecasted for highs tomorrow and apparently continues to forecast today either this morning or last night and say the GFS forecasted it to be above freezing so it will be that warm so that means it has to rain first. It cannot be any other method. No accounting for other models, little to no influence by the primary because the GFS does it kill it when it should, no correction for it's hideous SE bias, no correction for it's low resolution that cannot pick up dynamic cooling and on an on. This is the ineptitude we are forced to endure. That model need a serious tune up. It didn't even see the southern stream development until long after the Euro saw it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Radar is looking sexy http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 TV mets are still calling for a long duration of rain in the forecast tomorrow in the city. Doesn't make sense to see 6 hours of straight rain. I don't even think the warmest models have that duration of rain. Once the dynamics arrive via mesoscale frontogenetic forcing and large scale lift from the bombing low and midlevel centers I'd highly doubt a very long period of rain. Out here in nrn IL we had much more marginal thermal profiles than will be in place in the NYC metro and we went over to a heavy wet snow pretty quickly due to very strong fgen and the strong northern stream vort. Some places north of Chicago in far northeast IL are going to end up close to 10" with surface temperatures at or a bit above freezing and the profile aloft nearly hugging the zero line. And as luck would have it, I'm flying back to NYC tonight so I'll be there to enjoy the show Ma Nature puts on. Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Radar is looking sexy http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true cant really look much better than that prior to a MECS/HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm thinking the final, realistic totals for NE NJ and NYC will be in the 11 to 14 inch range. NW of us might get a 14-18 inch band and certainly into CT/eastern LI/MA, etc will have a WIDE SPREAD 18-36". Highest amounts I expect to be around 45" If that is your call for NYC because that is what the GFS says you are making a terrible mistake. It is so apparent that the GFS is suffering convective feedback issue messing up the entire thermal profile and underdoing the western edge of the storm. 4 Inches QPF around the center of the storm and a 3 inch drop off just to the west. It's ludicrous, it's convective feedback, it's the goofus. I'm all in with the Euro for NYC/NE NJ. A model that has had a warning criteria snow storm on every run for 8 straight runs is not out to lunch 24 hours from the event because the GFS says so and all the local TV and radio sheep follow it. The GFS has failed in these setups time and time again and the Euro has crushed it virtually 100% of the time in my 15+ years of tracking winter storms. It ain't changing now, not at this range. . The Euro is such a great model....but let's not forget....the GFS is the model of choice of many educated mets and networks for a reason. Put it this way....when just yesterday the NAM was the one showing much less snow, many were saying "the NAM is not catching on to things", and now we are saying the same for the GFS (which was the one that WAS catching on to things and we went by it then).....and we should just say the GFS is out to lunch? I'm thinking that the heaviest snows and banding stays east of our area and that the 00z models will converge on a solution about 50 miles further east. I am still saying around a foot of snow for NYC! Just don't think we see the 20-30". 14" sure ! Maybe so....all in all lets not just discount the GFS when we want to and the NAM when we want to...we have to value them both and remember that the GFS is one of the most reliable models up there with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Enjoy the ride guys. Whether its 10 or 20, it's still going to be a hell of a storm. These shortwaves mean business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ... A model that has had a warning criteria snow storm on every run for 8 straight runs is not out to lunch 24 hours from the event because the GFS says so and all the local TV and radio sheep follow it. The GFS has failed in these setups time and time again and the Euro has crushed it virtually 100% of the time in my 15+ years of tracking winter storms. It ain't changing now, not at this range. ++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i just cant believe this is unfolding in front of our eyes. it feels similar to a lot of major ones though with models trending in our favor, blizz warnings and upton increasing totals by the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lets just all enjoy it....be it 10" or 20" or so....it's MUCH more than we thought yesterday. Jim Cantore in TWC yesterday, when asked "could NYC see more than what we are forecasting now", said "yes but they just WILL NOT see 15 or 20 inches....no chance this time"....he might come close to eating those words ! He's great though. I love the enthusiasm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 . The Euro is such a great model....but let's not forget....the GFS is the model of choice of many educated mets and networks for a reason. Put it this way....when just yesterday the NAM was the one showing much less snow, many were saying "the NAM is not catching on to things", and now we are saying the same for the GFS (which was the one that WAS catching on to things and we went by it then).....and we should just say the GFS is out to lunch? I'm thinking that the heaviest snows and banding stays east of our area and that the 00z models will converge on a solution about 50 miles further east. I am still saying around a foot of snow for NYC! Just don't think we see the 20-30". 14" sure ! Maybe so....all in all lets not just discount the GFS when we want to and the NAM when we want to...we have to value them both and remember that the GFS is one of the most reliable models up there with the Euro Doesn't matter what the GFS or NAM say..Euro is the model to follow with this storm..they have had it since Sunday..when GFS had a front with rain and snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Radar is looking sexy http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true cant really look much better than that prior to a MECS/HECS Beautiful ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 . The Euro is such a great model....but let's not forget....the GFS is the model of choice of many educated mets and networks for a reason. Put it this way....when just yesterday the NAM was the one showing much less snow, many were saying "the NAM is not catching on to things", and now we are saying the same for the GFS (which was the one that WAS catching on to things and we went by it then).....and we should just say the GFS is out to lunch? I'm thinking that the heaviest snows and banding stays east of our area and that the 00z models will converge on a solution about 50 miles further east. I am still saying around a foot of snow for NYC! Just don't think we see the 20-30". 14" sure ! Maybe so....all in all lets not just discount the GFS when we want to and the NAM when we want to...we have to value them both and remember that the GFS is one of the most reliable models up there with the Euro Dude who is using the NAM? I completely ignored it last night when it looked ludicrous and discounted it today when it showed 30-40 inches in the vicinity of NYC. This has all been about the EURO for me. It has had warning snows in the area for 8 runs! 8 friggin runs in a row. That is the model to choose especially when ALL guidance not just the NAM or GFS are trending to it. ALL OF IT has gone to the Euro. The 18z GFS already busted as the radar is currently impressively better than the 18z GFS had. That my friend is the definition of a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 With all this QPF if we manage to start and stay as snow, boost the ratios later on then we can be looking at 15-20 over the majority of LI. Banding and thundersnow: add 6 to12 more inches...Looks Historic. And like others have pointed out it's not a 6 - 10 hour event, it is easily an 18 hour event if not 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 With all this QPF if we manage to start and stay as snow, boost the ratios later on then we can be looking at 15-20 over the majority of LI. Banding and thundersnow: add 6 to12 more inches...Looks Historic. And like others have pointed out it's not a 6 - 10 hour event, it is easily an 18 hour event if not 24. Yup, excellent point. Temperatures will crash to the lower 20's per pretty much every single model, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Those two phasing storms are simply beautiful to watch traversing on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 . Doesn't matter what the GFS or NAM say..Euro is the model to follow with this storm..they have had it since Sunday..when GFS had a front with rain and snow showers I agree the Euro should be followed....but not necessarily 100%. When the models show the same idea for days in a row....it is that idea that it continues to portray. When the the mods ingest the additional data, they as well can come within the realm of possibility. This close to the event though, it can be either of the models that show the correct solution, as very rarely does one show it EXACTLY, and they usually wind up pretty close together leading right up to the event. I'm hoping the Euro holds serve though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18 -24 hour event with many hours of prolly 2" + per hour. do the math. I heard up to 3" per hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree the Euro should be followed....but not necessarily 100%. When the models show the same idea for days in a row....it is that idea that it continues to portray. When the the mods ingest the additional data, they as well can come within the realm of possibility. This close to the event though, it can be either of the models that show the correct solution, as very rarely does one show it EXACTLY, and they usually wind up pretty close together leading right up to the event. I'm hoping the Euro holds serve though Fair point, I can concede that if it is 0z that is the final run that you need to feel confident that a concensus is reached, then I can respect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DT Lol that goes along with what I was just saying and my thinking exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 omg. iconapop concert or model watching? such a tough choice. but going out is so hard when it's snowing so might as well do it tonight... or is this going to be that historic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18 -24 hour event with many hours of prolly 2" + per hour. do the math. I heard up to 3" per hour... The Heaviest Snow last for 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol that goes along with what I was just saying and my thinking exactly It's his 1st call, he is likely waiting for 0z as you said you'd like to as well before he releases a Final Call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree the Euro should be followed....but not necessarily 100%. When the models show the same idea for days in a row....it is that idea that it continues to portray. When the the mods ingest the additional data, they as well can come within the realm of possibility. This close to the event though, it can be either of the models that show the correct solution, as very rarely does one show it EXACTLY, and they usually wind up pretty close together leading right up to the event. I'm hoping the Euro holds serve though There are no more serves to hold. It's over. It's done. The Euro wins. Enough of this. Please. The GFS was STILL a mess w/ the precip field. The trolling that has gone on in this thread is as epic as the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Fair point, I can concede that if it is 0z that is the final run that you need to feel confident that a concensus is reached, then I can respect that. Believe me man...I'm with you on this....The Euro has been very solid with this....but in a way...we do have to be cautious. If this was a DC to BOS historic snowstorm, I'd say we could be LESS cautious. But let's be honest....we're on the edge here....on the edge of the "historic" snows....with "major" snows not far at all SW of us. Any shift, even a slight shift as the models all converge on a solution between now and these 00z runs....is a big, big deal. If at 00z these runs still show the same or even amp it up....I'll give up my 11-14" call for NYC and raise it....but I'm pretty confident that we will receive inside those amounts with amounts up to 18" a bit N like I said....and up to 3" in New England and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar is looking sexy http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Coma is organizing fast. Not many dryslots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Also. As everyone knows, the NAM is way overdone. It loves spitting out 36" amounts for the historic events (it did the same for DC in 2/2010, one time giving IAD 40"+). Luckily when it does do this it's because something historic is about to occur. My call is for 22" measured in Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 By the way...I apologize for not putting my last several posts in the banter thread. Please excuse them and/or delete if necessary ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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