Chrisjmcjr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What is the next model run and what time does it come out??? is it the nam @ 9:30??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What is the next model run and what time does it come out??? is it the nam @ 9:30??? Nam at 8:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 C LI recap: 18z GFS: 10-18" 18z NAM: 24-30" 12z Euro: 24+" 12z NNM: 24-30" 15z SREF Mean: 15-20" Thanks for the recap. I was hoping to get a quick summary about where the models stand. The Euro +24 seems impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow, I've been tracking this for days, and right now up here in the Mid-Hudson Valley, New Paltz, expecting 12-15" hopefully. If only I was in the city, but always reading up on you guys. This is getting real with most models still shifting west and heavier amounts too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 gfs still E, really hammers LI. though Id go with a euro/nam compromise with slightly less qpf than what the nam spat out, there is still some bust potential in the coverage area, esp areas W of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 there is such an unbelievable amount of moisture available for this storm. its really crazy stuff this is going got be quite the show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 They seem to be mainly basing their forecast on the GFS. I think a blend of the NAM and GFS is a better way to go but we'll see what the 00z models have to say... No euro? Bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's nice to see a storm that comes along breaks the typical KU mold. The blocking near the Maritimes where the 50/50 usually sets up is really helping our cause. These phasing events between the streams with a a wave dying out to our west usually bomb out too far east for us like 2-19-04. This storm is pretty much defying the odds of what you would expect. But as we have seen recently, rare phases have been happening lately in the East. 18 storm KU composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Slow down there buddy. I think that 1-2' is a more reasonable forecast from NE NJ/NYC to SW CT. ECMWF had over 2" QPF for Newark-NYC. And the ECMWF is a little bit dry on QPF at times. IF it shows the same thing at 0z, then we are going get the 20+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm thinking the final, realistic totals for NE NJ and NYC will be in the 11 to 14 inch range. NW of us might get a 14-18 inch band and certainly into CT/eastern LI/MA, etc will have a WIDE SPREAD 18-36". Highest amounts I expect to be around 45" If that is your call for NYC because that is what the GFS says you are making a terrible mistake. It is so apparent that the GFS is suffering convective feedback issue messing up the entire thermal profile and underdoing the western edge of the storm. 4 Inches QPF around the center of the storm and a 3 inch drop off just to the west. It's ludicrous, it's convective feedback, it's the goofus. I'm all in with the Euro for NYC/NE NJ. A model that has had a warning criteria snow storm on every run for 8 straight runs is not out to lunch 24 hours from the event because the GFS says so and all the local TV and radio sheep follow it. The GFS has failed in these setups time and time again and the Euro has crushed it virtually 100% of the time in my 15+ years of tracking winter storms. It ain't changing now, not at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm thinking 12-18" NYC metro, 14-20" n NJ into sw CT, and 15-22" central Long Island. My estimates for New England are mainly in the 20-30 inch range. Some mixing early in event and distance from deepest phase are the only reasons for going lower for NYC than max in New England, but it will be a major impact storm from about NJ-PA border (north of TTN) east to New Brunswick Canada. However I think it will only be a "crippling blizzard" in parts of southern New England and possibly some parts of Maine/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If that is your call for NYC because that is what the GFS says you are making a terrible mistake. It is so apparent that the GFS is suffering convective feedback issue messing up the entire thermal profile and underdoing the western edge of the storm. 4 Inches QPF around the center of the storm and a 3 inch drop off just to the west. It's ludicrous, it's convective feedback, it's the goofus. I'm all in with the Euro for NYC/NE NJ. A model that has had a warning criteria snow storm on every run for 8 straight runs is not out to lunch 24 hours from the event because the GFS says so and all the local TV and radio sheep follow it. The GFS has failed in these setups time and time again and the Euro has crushed it virtually 100% of the time in my 15 years of tracking winter storms. Here are the amounts I'm seeing... NYC/EWR/LGA: 16-20" JFK: 14-18" HPN (White Plains): 18-24" HVN/OKX/GON: 22-30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here are the amounts I'm seeing... NYC/EWR/LGA: 16-20" JFK: 14-18" HPN (White Plains): 18-24" HVN/OKX/GON: 22-30" That makes some friggin' sense at least. Easy to lollipop to Euro totals in some areas of best banding with a call like that for NYC/EWR/LGA. Euro is 22 inches for LGA/NYC, 20 for EWR. 19 for JFK and all guidance but the GFS is in line or better with the Euro. But yes let's all go with the outlier and the worst model historically with coastal storms. SMH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I will look at the 00z models but at this point less the 24 hours to the event it's now casting time and that national radar is nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If that is your call for NYC because that is what the GFS says you are making a terrible mistake. It is so apparent that the GFS is suffering convective feedback issue messing up the entire thermal profile and underdoing the western edge of the storm. 4 Inches QPF around the center of the storm and a 3 inch drop off just to the west. It's ludicrous, it's convective feedback, it's the goofus. I'm all in with the Euro for NYC/NE NJ. A model that has had a warning criteria snow storm on every run for 8 straight runs is not out to lunch 24 hours from the event because the GFS says so and all the local TV and radio sheep follow it. The GFS has failed in these setups time and time again and the Euro has crushed it virtually 100% of the time in my 15+ years of tracking winter storms. It ain't changing now, not at this range. They say a picture is worth a thousand words: One look at the radar makes it apparent that the lack of precip on the western flank as modeled on the GFS is clearly wrong. The consistency of the NAM and Euro solutions holds more merit IMO than the GFS at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 TV mets are still calling for a long duration of rain in the forecast tomorrow in the city. Doesn't make sense to see 6 hours of straight rain. I don't even think the warmest models have that duration of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 They say a picture is worth a thousand words: One look at the radar makes it apparent that the lack of precip on the western flank as modeled on the GFS is clearly wrong. The consistency of the NAM and Euro solutions holds more merit IMO than the GFS at this point in time. I have NEVER seen a radar look like that leading into a storm... This will definitely be a top 5 er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mother of God....I don't even know what to say.....Is this really happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NYC could break the 2006 record for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mother of God....I don't even know what to say.....Is this really happening I don't know what to say either.. I been speechless pretty much all day..lol Im going to be spending alot of time in a skid steer for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 TV mets are still calling for a long duration of rain in the forecast tomorrow in the city. Doesn't make sense to see 6 hours of straight rain. I don't even think the warmest models have that duration of rain. The GFS is easily 36-38 most of the day. Not saying its right but it is the warmest at the surface right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I got work tonight 12am-8am I will not be able to focus one bit LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looking at that radar I'm not surprised the most extreme models have widespread 2 to 3" QPF amounts. I wouldn't be surprised to see snowfall amounts continue to rise on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 All I'm hoping is that rain/mixed doesn't make it past sunrise highway in western nassau county. ABC news calling this "Storm of the Century" thought that was March 1993...wait that was a different century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No euro? Bad idea. Yup. Why GFS and no Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 All I'm hoping is that rain/mixed doesn't make it past sunrise highway in western nassau county. ABC news calling this "Storm of the Century" thought that was March 1993...wait that was a different century its a new century... ahh.. you caught it..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The GFS is easily 36-38 most of the day. Not saying its right but it is the warmest at the surface right now GFS surface temps are bad in these situations. Warmest 850's get to 0 here and there's a lot of heavy precip. A lot of mets here said that the GFS is not picking up on some of the cooling processes that the hi-res models are. Which is why the Euro and the NAM have only bout 2-3 hours mixing max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So every few years we get a new storm of the century. It should be titled storms of the century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 TV mets are still calling for a long duration of rain in the forecast tomorrow in the city. Doesn't make sense to see 6 hours of straight rain. I don't even think the warmest models have that duration of rain. They look at what the GFS originally forecasted for highs tomorrow and apparently continues to forecast today either this morning or last night and say the GFS forecasted it to be above freezing so it will be that warm so that means it has to rain first. It cannot be any other method. No accounting for other models, for the fact that it already busted based on current radar, for blatantly obvious convective feedback, little to no influence by the weaker and earlier dead primary because the GFS never kills it when it should, no correction for it's hideous SE bias, no correction for it's low resolution that cannot pick up dynamic cooling and on an on. This is the ineptitude we are forced to endure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looking at that radar I'm not surprised the most extreme models have widespread 2 to 3" QPF amounts. I wouldn't be surprised to see snowfall amounts continue to rise on the models. The precipitation looks to be racing northwards as well. Early start possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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