MaverickTrader Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Reminds me of the 1978 Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 new afd out from upton. pretty solid discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Gfs 8-12 for nnj and NYC 4-8 cnj 12+ eastern Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 jh21 h24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Gfs 1+ of liquid for Ttn-east. NYC is 1.25+ and Long Island is hammered is this all frozen for my part of central jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is still not the NAM but I wouldn't expect it to be with the lower resolution. The phase is a bit late but better than 12z. I would expect that it's not fully taking into the account the strength of the southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Gfs 8-12 for nnj and NYC 4-8 cnj 12+ eastern Long Island its more than that...no question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 well 8+ is a given over NNJ/NYC take the qpf of the nam/euro and gfs and combine it you talking about a 12-20" snowstorm over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The gfs is better but not great, the 6 to 10 would definitely verify, over a foot in the city and parts of LI get whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 is this all frozen for my part of central jersey? No. You get 4-8 on this run .6-.7 frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Going to be a close shave on the south shore/east end, but if precip stays heavy enough we might luck out and hold the warm air off completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It looks like the GFS even gives more precip to NYC than to Boston. What a shift of events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This run would be more frozen than what the snow maps would indicate because the GFS's low resolution still won't be able to handle the evaporational and ageostrophic cooling as well as the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Can NYC/ Western LI escape any mixed and stay from beginning to end as snow despite varying ratios? If so, what would be the potential maximum snowfall if no sleet, rain or freezing rain is involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like the GFS is still catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 18z RGEM has a foot of snow for NYC. Much improved from it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I hope the storm is further west than the gfs. My county middlesex monmouth and extending north are going to see a sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No. You get 4-8 on this run .6-.7 frozen interesting so now I know why Mt Holly is hedging with the 6-10 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The gfs is better but not great, the 6 to 10 would definitely verify, over a foot in the city and parts of LI get whacked. Would not worry about it. #1, it's the 18z and #2 it is blatantly obvious the GFS is suffering crippling convective feedback issues that misrepresents the temperature profiles and total QPF. Count on QPF being higher than this and temperatures being colder but for sure count on all the local TV and radio stations to not say higher than 12 or at most 14 for NYC metro for tonight's early evening news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I hope the storm is further west than the gfs. My county middlesex monmouth and extending north are going to see a sharp cutoff. It will be at OZ - as long a sthe Euro is there we are rock solid. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like the GFS is still catching up. GFS is still quite warm, temps still above freezing until after 0z tomorrow night. 850s are below freezing but my guess is most of what falls in the afternoon would be wet snow or a rain/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You are correct sorry for that. But based on the latest models it should be for W./E. Monmouth on north thru Middlesex. Rossi C'mon man our Mt. Holly crew is one of the best around who know exactly what they are doing AND are nice enough to keep us in the loop by posting on this board. No need to second guess them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The GFS is at the low end of all the QPF guidance the NAM , EURO , EURO ens and SREF are all plus 2 . be careful taking too much away from this . lets see who corrects at 0z And being a tad warmer at the surface is a function of not being as robust . The others make this a bomb the GFS is less than that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I see 1.50 for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Amazing discussion by Upton .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...GLOBALMODELS HAVE ALL COMING INTO OVERWHELMINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AMAJOR...IF NOT HISTORIC WINTER STORM ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREAFRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWS AND STRONGEST WINDS WILLFRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILLUNDERGO MAJOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH ANDEAST OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEFCHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX AT THE COAST LATE FRIDAY MORNINGAND AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO SNOW BY EVENING.IN FACT...TRENDS IN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN COLDER...INCLUDING THE MOSTRECENT 18Z NAM WRF. A HEALTHY E/SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATETONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TOBRING IN SOME WARMER AIR AT THE COAST. THE OFFSETTING FACTOR THOUGH ISTHE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW AND THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THEWINDS...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE COLD AIR TO DRAIN SOUTH INTO THEFORECAST AREA EVEN FASTER THAN WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. INTHIS CASE...SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AT THE COAST IF ACHANGEOVER DOES NOT OCCUR. PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWFBASED ON GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND TRENDS IN OTHER MODELS.THE NAM WRF AND ECWMF ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WITH SEVERALINCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS WHILE MORECONSERVATIVE...ALSO POINTS TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 85-70HLAYER WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND INSTABILITY ALOFT...ALLINGREDIENTS POINTING TOWARD SIGNIFICANT SNOW BANDING SOMEWHERE INSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SIGNATURE OFTEN INDICATES VERY HIGHSNOWFALL TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. INADDITION...WITH STORM CENTRAL PRESSURE SAT MORNING DROPPING TOAROUND 975 MB NEAR THE BENCHMARK...40N...70W...AND HIGH PRESSUREOVER EASTERN CANADA AROUND 1040 MB...WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG.BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM NYC AND POINTS EAST...WITHSLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS TO THE WEST.AS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...LOOKING FOR 10 TO 15 INCHES ALONGTHE COAST...12 TO 16 INCHES LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND 18 TO 24INCHES ACROSS CT. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHSTRONG SNOW BANDS.THUS...BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM NYC METRO ANDPOINTS EAST...WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO THE NW. THE WORSTCONDITIONS WILL BE DURING THE NIGHTTIME FRIDAY AND EARLY MORNINGHOURS SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It will be at OZ - as long a sthe Euro is there we are rock solid. Rossi Is the topic of tonights show going to be this Blizzard/Snowstorm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Local stations love hugging the gfs so i dont expect them to be very bullish yet. But the gfs seems to still be trending so it will be interesting what tonight will bring. Ill trust the euro over the other models at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is the topic of tonights show going to be this Blizzard/Snowstorm ? Possibly!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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