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February 8th-9th Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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HR 30 - 850`S go from I 80 east accross the northen NYC through the North Shore of Long island

but by HR 36 - 850 `S running just south side of NYC through central Long Island .

850`s will sag south and east from here and will see what wraps around .

990 off AC .

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Through 33, yes, but given that the surface 32 F line and 850mb 0 line are right on top of each other at 33 hours, the sounding has definitely become isothermal, and coastal areas look to be switching over to snow at 33 hours, in my opinion.

Yes, the storm is going to stack. Also, just Imho, the nam has been running really warm with this one I've noticed. You?

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I still wouldn't be surprised if it trends a little bit colder due to the earlier phase. Remember, the mechanism for warming us up depends on the northern stream staying dominant and the primary dragging warm air in. Heavy initial precip can also delay changeovers, seen this a number of times. The front end could be snowier than we think, hopefully. And obviously, hopefully the main coastal low trends stronger and closer so we get crushed later.

NAM has always done this with coastals after a primary transfer re depicting a warm intrusion more than ever verifies particularly at this range. In fact the ETA used to do it as well pre-NAM (NAM of course is next generation ETA). It also always led to overdoen up QPF which still persists today as it did with the ETA. It is actually funny to see these NAM biases from coastal storms of the past show up for this oen. I take it as an excellent sign. As others have pointed out this is really an isothermal sounding anyway. Definitely more frozen than anything else.

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