ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z fri - 15z sat wow - long duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Next will be Mt Holly - always catching up! Rossi They've issued warnings but going with 6 to 10 for Middlesex/Somerset, while Upton is going with 10-14 nearby in Union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 4km NAM 20"+ for the NYC metro http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bloomberg is going to look like a fool...once again He really needs to stop making absolutes in his PSA's Just watched a clip of his press conference. What a moron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No. Bloomberg said 3-6 and tomorrow will just be another normal workday in NYC. I think he'll decide to cancel given that OKX issued a blizzard warning saying travel would be very dangerous. Bloomberg often updates a bit behind the NWS/model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z NAM the 30 HR doesnt look right - the skew t's tell a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z fri - 15z sat Next will be Mt Holly - always catching up! Rossi You must not be paying very good attention, Mt. Holly has had warnings out since 3:30. At least know what you're talking about before trashing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just a thought: Upton starting the blizzard warning at 6am would give Bloomberg more of a reason to cancel school and keep people from going to work. Call it activist or call it being over-cautious or call it bullish, I dont think blizzard conditions would really kick in until 6 PM rather than 6 AM. That being said, I approve of them going with 6am just to get everyone off the roads and out of work if they dont need to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 4km NAM 20"+ for the NYC metro http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif there are 30's on the map, nassau/suffolk border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just a thought: Upton starting the blizzard warning at 6am would give Bloomberg more of a reason to cancel school and keep people from going to work. Call it activist or call it being over-cautious or call it bullish, I dont think blizzard conditions would really kick in until 6 PM rather than 6 AM. That being said, I approve of them going with 6am just to get everyone off the roads and out of work if they dont need to be. you may be right but I would think by 1-2pm its coming down hard in and around nyc. Wouldn't be safe for kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You must not be paying very good attention, Mt. Holly has had warnings out since 3:30. At least know what you're talking about before trashing them. Hey I am talking about Blizzaed warning. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No. Bloomberg said 3-6 and tomorrow will just be another normal workday in NYC. Will this storm be known as "The Bloomberg Bomb"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You must not be paying very good attention, Mt. Holly has had warnings out since 3:30. At least know what you're talking about before trashing them. I think he was referring to blizzard warnings. Places like Perth amboy oldbridge, sayreville are all within 10-15 miles of staten island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the 30 HR doesnt look right - the skew t's tell a different story I was surprised myself to see how warm it was.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just a thought: Upton starting the blizzard warning at 6am would give Bloomberg more of a reason to cancel school and keep people from going to work. Call it activist or call it being over-cautious or call it bullish, I dont think blizzard conditions would really kick in until 6 PM rather than 6 AM. That being said, I approve of them going with 6am just to get everyone off the roads and out of work if they dont need to be. It's a safety play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That was, without a doubt, the most extreme model run I've seen around here in regards to snow. Only 3 short months from the most extreme runs for anything ever. (Sandy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think he was referring to blizzard warnings. Places like Perth amboy oldbridge, sayreville are all within 10the miles of staten island. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hey guys I posted a question earlier and no one responded so here it is again, I unfortunately am taking a 11am flight out of JFK. I am going on American which is apt to cancel flights with little or no real reason or safety issue. Do you think I am right to assume it will be cancelled also because of the 5am blizzard warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC230 PM EST THU 7 FEB 2013 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 1430Z HI RES ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 25 KT RETURNS ABOUT 120 NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...AND THESE E TO SE WINDS SHUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO GALE FROM ALL THE WAY UP TO NEARLY CAPE CHARLES THIS EVENING AND OVERNGT. ALBEIT SMALLER DIFFERENCES THAT 24 TO 48HRS AGO...THERE REMAIN SOME BETWEEN 12Z MDLS WITH RESPECT TO TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WERE DROPSONDES RELEASED FROM RECON AIRCRAFT OVER GLF OF MEXICO LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TDA/TNGT OFF SE COAST. WITH RESPECT TO ITS PREVIOUS TWO RUNS THE 12Z GFS EVER SO SLIGHTLY NUDGED TRACK N AND NW. ALSO NAM IS NOW WRN MOST SOLUTION...WHILE 12Z ECMWF WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED SOLUTION. ALSO 12Z UKMET TRENDED NW TOWARD MDL CONSENSUS AND ITS RUNS YESTERDAY. 12Z 25KM ECMWF AND NOW THE EMSL FIELD OFF THE 12Z GFS BOTH RAPIDLY INTENSIFY CYCLONE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AND INDICATE CNTRL PRES IN LOW 970'S NEAR GEORGES BANK BY SAT MORNING. THERE WAS BEEN A GENERAL STRENGTHENING TREND AMONG MDLS OVER LAST FEW CYCLES. ALREADY BUMPED UP HUDSON TO BALT AND BALT TO HATTERAS CNYNS TO STORM WRNGS...AND WILL FURTHER BUMP UP THESE STORM FORCE WINDS BY 5 TO 10 KT. 12Z GFS BNDRY LAYER WINDS SHOWS 75 KT MAX JUST E OF NANTUCKET/CAPE COD EARLY SAT...WHICH EVEN MAY EVEN BE UNDERDONE AS COULD LIKELY SEE 925 MB WINDS MIXING TO SFC. WILL ALSO BE BUMPING UP THE HURCN FORCE WINDS FROM PREVIOUSLY FORECAST 65 KT. OTHERWISE WILL NOT BE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIUOS NT1/NT2 FORECASTS THRU DAY3. 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOVING RIDGE OFFSHORE SUN AND ALSO WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT MON. AND WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST PRE FRNTL GALES OVER BALT TO HATTERAS CNYNS AS WELL AS BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE WATERS. BY TUE NON GFS GLBL MDLS MOVE COLD FRNT JUST SE OF MID ATLC WATERS WHILE 12Z GFS BRINGS SHARP UPPER SHRTWV JUST E OF MID/SRN MS VALLEY LATE TUE...AND DVLPG SFC LOW TOWARD CAROLINA COAST RESULTING IN MUCH STRONG TO GALE SW WINDS S OF HATTERAS CNYN. AM FAVORING THE WEAKER MDL CONSENSUS. 12Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III WAS AGAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH SIG WV HGTS FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN MAINLY IN AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS NEW ENGL/NRN MID ATLC WATERS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF MWW3 IN SIMILIAR PREVIOUS EVENTS...WILL BE BUMPING UP THESE VALUES BY AT LEAST 15 TO 20 PERCENT. AS MWW3 HAS CONSITENTLY BEEN TRENDING HIER THE 12Z ECMWF WAVE MDL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIER THAN 12Z MWW3 NOW. OVER ABOVE WATERS MAY GO AS HIGH AS WAVEWATCH III ENSEMBLE MAX SIG WV HGT...THAT IS AROUND 40 FT..EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z ESTOFS AND 12Z ETSS SURGE HGTS...WITH MAXES ONLY A FEW TENTHS FT OFF...ESTOFS HIGHER. WITH THE THOUGHT THAT WILL LIKELY SEE 925MB WINDS MIXING TO SFC POLEWARD OF OCCLUSION INCLUDING BENT BACK PORTION...THAT THESE MDLS ARE RUN OFF THE GFS 10M WINDS...AND WITH PREFERENCE FOR ECMWF TRACK WHICH IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO COAST...THESE SURGE VALUES ARE UNDERDONE. .WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: Great read/info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Someone could easily see 3+ inch liquid equivalents under the best banding. Phasing events tend to deliver on the higher QPF forecasts. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NAMSFC4_18z/ploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks Np...how can anyone whoa loves snow not be paying attn. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottynic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 MT holly just updated again!!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hear the 18z RGEM is really wet for SNE...how is it down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 After careful consideration, I decided to issue my forecast map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 MT holly just updated again!!... PLease post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hey guys I posted a question earlier and no one responded so here it is again, I unfortunately am taking a 11am flight out of JFK. I am going on American which is apt to cancel flights with little or no real reason or safety issue. Do you think I am right to assume it will be cancelled also because of the 5am blizzard warning? Possibly, but we don't work for American so we can't answer that. Why don't you call them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wonder if the gfs will follow, its coming up shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How many Blizzard Warnings have been issued for NYC since 2003? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hear the 18z RGEM is really wet for SNE...how is it down here? looking niccce. maybe a little warm,but still good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am actually a bit surprised Mt.Holly didn't go a bit higher on accumulations for my area, I am just south or the Union Co. border and right across from Richmond Co. NY, they are still holding at 6-10" but like I mentioned in a previous post I think that will certainly go up. I'm surprised they didn't raise totals as well based on the Euro and NAM but maybe they are counting on more mixing issues than what most models are currently showing, or they are waiting for the GFS to come completely on board. Counties just to our north are under WSW for 10-16 inches. If models hold serve tonight I think our totals will almost definitely go up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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