Zir0b Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ... Blizzard Warning in effect from 6 am Friday to 1 PM ESTSaturday... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a BlizzardWarning... which is in effect from 6 am Friday to 1 PM ESTSaturday. * Locations... New York City... southern Westchester County... andcoastal portions of northeast New Jersey.* Hazard types... heavy snow and strong winds.* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches... withlocalized higher amounts within developing snow bands.* Winds... north 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.* Temperatures... falling into the 20s by Friday evening. * Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.* Timing... the strongest winds and heaviest snow will occur Fridayevening into Saturday morning.* Impacts... heavy snow and winds will make for dangerous drivingconditions with visibilities near zero in white-out conditions.In addition... some tree limbs will be downed... causing scatteredpower outages.Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions areexpected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong windsand poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteoutconditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. Ifyou must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you getstranded... stay with your vehicle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BLIZZARD WARNING FOR NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just got an alert on my iphone telling me there is a blizzard warning! so cool same, scared the hell out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12z fri - 15z sat Next will be Mt Holly - always catching up! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just got an alert on my iphone telling me there is a blizzard warning! so cool Same, it shocked me. That has never happened before, not even for Tornado Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Same here, I was like WTF is that XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Huge set of runs tonight and then the fun begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 because you are taking the NAM verbatim when everyone knows it overdoes qpf...if the Euro and GFS all show 3 feet for everyone and all the other models then yeah maybe they go with the higher amounts. You are model hugging here. Nothing wrong with starting with the lower totals with the possibility for more but you are not going to get exactly what the NAM spits out Lol, the Euro shows similar and has been nailing this storm for 8 runs now, but yeah we should just discount that I guess because the NAM agrees with it. Wow, just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 had a feeling with the developments today upton was going with blizz warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Aren't blizzard conditions solely visibility based now and not dependent on wind? I could use less wind here-we've had enough wind and storm damage to last a lifetime since October. I am pretty sure the wind criteria is a part of it. Can you imagine a blizzard with no wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 well the previous 2 3 hr periods are basically identical. So JFK might be wire-to-wire snow, with what seem like 3.8 QPF...LOL. i think 24-27 is mix/rain, post the soundingif u have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just got an alert on my iphone telling me there is a blizzard warning! so cool Same here.. Im working in the BX right now. It said blizzard warning issued for this area. Avoid travel lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well-defined comma head already over the southeast. This thing is juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 same, scared the hell out of me. I got one due to evacuation orders for Sandy, so I've gotten it before. I think it's so sick, the sound makes it seem like doomsday is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Upgrade to Hurricane Force wind warning just off MTP. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=okx&wwa=hurricane%20force%20wind%20warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looking fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BLIZZARD WARNING FOR NYC Are they cancelling school tomorrow? I work in NYC public schools.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 well the previous 2 3 hr periods are basically identical. So JFK might be wire-to-wire snow, with what seem like 3.8 QPF...LOL. I'd like the colum to cool just a little more, but I would think that's predominantly snow as well-maybe some sleet mixed at times. Good thing is the NAM is likely a little too warm and cooled from last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Are they cancelling school tomorrow? I work in NYC public schools.. Bloomberg/DOE usually decide by 6pm the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That's the 12z GFS basically, the NWS will never learn. I've no problem with them doing this now and adjusting upwards as we go but the Euro is completely embarassing all other models not showing it's depiction at all levels so to go with more of a GFS solution for totals here well is delaying the inevitable anyway. We will never learn? Please inform me since the NWS needs informing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Are they cancelling school tomorrow? I work in NYC public schools.. nope bloomberg said not a serious storm for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why will they cancel school? When does it starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bloomberg/DOE usually decide by 6pm the day before. Hopefully he isn't sticking to his 4-6" forecast from this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Same, it shocked me. That has never happened before, not even for Tornado Warnings. They activated the Emergency Alert System, it still didn't carry over to FM radio but it was heard on AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Why will they cancel school? When does it starts? Blizzard warning goes into effect at 7am tomorrow morning. They might be able to fit school in before the heaviest snow, but I would think they cancel given what Upton says...very strong wording! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Are they cancelling school tomorrow? I work in NYC public schools.. No. Bloomberg said 3-6 and tomorrow will just be another normal workday in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bloomberg is going to look like a fool...once again He really needs to stop making absolutes in his PSA's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC 230 PM EST THU 7 FEB 2013 .FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT .WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 1430Z HI RES ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 25 KT RETURNS ABOUT 120 NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...AND THESE E TO SE WINDS SHUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO GALE FROM ALL THE WAY UP TO NEARLY CAPE CHARLES THIS EVENING AND OVERNGT. ALBEIT SMALLER DIFFERENCES THAT 24 TO 48HRS AGO...THERE REMAIN SOME BETWEEN 12Z MDLS WITH RESPECT TO TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WERE DROPSONDES RELEASED FROM RECON AIRCRAFT OVER GLF OF MEXICO LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TDA/TNGT OFF SE COAST. WITH RESPECT TO ITS PREVIOUS TWO RUNS THE 12Z GFS EVER SO SLIGHTLY NUDGED TRACK N AND NW. ALSO NAM IS NOW WRN MOST SOLUTION...WHILE 12Z ECMWF WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED SOLUTION. ALSO 12Z UKMET TRENDED NW TOWARD MDL CONSENSUS AND ITS RUNS YESTERDAY. 12Z 25KM ECMWF AND NOW THE EMSL FIELD OFF THE 12Z GFS BOTH RAPIDLY INTENSIFY CYCLONE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AND INDICATE CNTRL PRES IN LOW 970'S NEAR GEORGES BANK BY SAT MORNING. THERE WAS BEEN A GENERAL STRENGTHENING TREND AMONG MDLS OVER LAST FEW CYCLES. ALREADY BUMPED UP HUDSON TO BALT AND BALT TO HATTERAS CNYNS TO STORM WRNGS...AND WILL FURTHER BUMP UP THESE STORM FORCE WINDS BY 5 TO 10 KT. 12Z GFS BNDRY LAYER WINDS SHOWS 75 KT MAX JUST E OF NANTUCKET/CAPE COD EARLY SAT...WHICH EVEN MAY EVEN BE UNDERDONE AS COULD LIKELY SEE 925 MB WINDS MIXING TO SFC. WILL ALSO BE BUMPING UP THE HURCN FORCE WINDS FROM PREVIOUSLY FORECAST 65 KT. OTHERWISE WILL NOT BE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIUOS NT1/NT2 FORECASTS THRU DAY3. 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOVING RIDGE OFFSHORE SUN AND ALSO WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT MON. AND WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST PRE FRNTL GALES OVER BALT TO HATTERAS CNYNS AS WELL AS BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE WATERS. BY TUE NON GFS GLBL MDLS MOVE COLD FRNT JUST SE OF MID ATLC WATERS WHILE 12Z GFS BRINGS SHARP UPPER SHRTWV JUST E OF MID/SRN MS VALLEY LATE TUE...AND DVLPG SFC LOW TOWARD CAROLINA COAST RESULTING IN MUCH STRONG TO GALE SW WINDS S OF HATTERAS CNYN. AM FAVORING THE WEAKER MDL CONSENSUS. 12Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III WAS AGAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH SIG WV HGTS FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN MAINLY IN AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS NEW ENGL/NRN MID ATLC WATERS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF MWW3 IN SIMILIAR PREVIOUS EVENTS...WILL BE BUMPING UP THESE VALUES BY AT LEAST 15 TO 20 PERCENT. AS MWW3 HAS CONSITENTLY BEEN TRENDING HIER THE 12Z ECMWF WAVE MDL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIER THAN 12Z MWW3 NOW. OVER ABOVE WATERS MAY GO AS HIGH AS WAVEWATCH III ENSEMBLE MAX SIG WV HGT...THAT IS AROUND 40 FT. .EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z ESTOFS AND 12Z ETSS SURGE HGTS...WITH MAXES ONLY A FEW TENTHS FT OFF...ESTOFS HIGHER. WITH THE THOUGHT THAT WILL LIKELY SEE 925MB WINDS MIXING TO SFC POLEWARD OF OCCLUSION INCLUDING BENT BACK PORTION...THAT THESE MDLS ARE RUN OFF THE GFS 10M WINDS...AND WITH PREFERENCE FOR ECMWF TRACK WHICH IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO COAST...THESE SURGE VALUES ARE UNDERDONE. .WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No. Bloomberg said 3-6 and tomorrow will just be another normal workday in NYC. just like how sandy won't be worse than irene oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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