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February 8th-9th Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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... Blizzard Warning in effect from 6 am Friday to 1 PM EST
Saturday... 

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Blizzard
Warning... which is in effect from 6 am Friday to 1 PM EST
Saturday. 

* Locations... New York City... southern Westchester County... and
coastal portions of northeast New Jersey.

* Hazard types... heavy snow and strong winds.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches... with
localized higher amounts within developing snow bands.

* Winds... north 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Temperatures... falling into the 20s by Friday evening. 

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.

* Timing... the strongest winds and heaviest snow will occur Friday
evening into Saturday morning.

* Impacts... heavy snow and winds will make for dangerous driving
conditions with visibilities near zero in white-out conditions.
In addition... some tree limbs will be downed... causing scattered
power outages.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded... stay with your vehicle.

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because you are taking the NAM verbatim when everyone knows it overdoes qpf...if the Euro and GFS all show 3 feet for everyone and all the other models then yeah maybe they go with the higher amounts. You are model hugging here. Nothing wrong with starting with the lower totals with the possibility for more but you are not going to get exactly what the NAM spits out

Lol, the Euro shows similar and has been nailing this storm for 8 runs now, but yeah we should just discount that I guess because the NAM agrees with it. Wow, just wow.

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well the previous 2 3 hr periods are basically identical. So JFK might be wire-to-wire snow, with what seem like 3.8 QPF...LOL. 

I'd like the colum to cool just a little more, but I would think that's predominantly snow as well-maybe some sleet mixed at times. Good thing is the NAM is likely a little too warm and cooled from last run.

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That's the 12z GFS basically, the NWS will never learn. :facepalm:

I've no problem with them doing this now and adjusting upwards as we go but the Euro is completely embarassing all other models not showing it's depiction at all levels so to go with more of a GFS solution for totals here well is delaying the inevitable anyway.

We will never learn? Please inform me since the NWS needs informing. 

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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

230 PM EST THU 7 FEB 2013

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

1430Z HI RES ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 25 KT RETURNS ABOUT

120 NM SE OF CAPE FEAR...AND THESE E TO SE WINDS SHUD CONTINUE

TO INCREASE TO GALE FROM ALL THE WAY UP TO NEARLY CAPE CHARLES

THIS EVENING AND OVERNGT. ALBEIT SMALLER DIFFERENCES THAT 24 TO

48HRS AGO...THERE REMAIN SOME BETWEEN 12Z MDLS WITH RESPECT TO

TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL CYCLONE OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE

WERE DROPSONDES RELEASED FROM RECON AIRCRAFT OVER GLF OF MEXICO

LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TDA/TNGT OFF SE COAST. WITH RESPECT

TO ITS PREVIOUS TWO RUNS THE 12Z GFS EVER SO SLIGHTLY NUDGED

TRACK N AND NW. ALSO NAM IS NOW WRN MOST SOLUTION...WHILE 12Z

ECMWF WAS FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED

SOLUTION. ALSO 12Z UKMET TRENDED NW TOWARD MDL CONSENSUS AND ITS

RUNS YESTERDAY. 12Z 25KM ECMWF AND NOW THE EMSL FIELD OFF THE

12Z GFS BOTH RAPIDLY INTENSIFY CYCLONE FRI INTO EARLY SAT AND

INDICATE CNTRL PRES IN LOW 970'S NEAR GEORGES BANK BY SAT

MORNING. THERE WAS BEEN A GENERAL STRENGTHENING TREND AMONG MDLS

OVER LAST FEW CYCLES. ALREADY BUMPED UP HUDSON TO BALT AND BALT

TO HATTERAS CNYNS TO STORM WRNGS...AND WILL FURTHER BUMP UP

THESE STORM FORCE WINDS BY 5 TO 10 KT. 12Z GFS BNDRY LAYER WINDS

SHOWS 75 KT MAX JUST E OF NANTUCKET/CAPE COD EARLY SAT...WHICH

EVEN MAY EVEN BE UNDERDONE AS COULD LIKELY SEE 925 MB WINDS

MIXING TO SFC. WILL ALSO BE BUMPING UP THE HURCN FORCE WINDS

FROM PREVIOUSLY FORECAST 65 KT. OTHERWISE WILL NOT BE MAKING

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIUOS NT1/NT2 FORECASTS THRU DAY3.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MOVING

RIDGE OFFSHORE SUN AND ALSO WERE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING

OF COLD FRONT MON. AND WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST PRE

FRNTL GALES OVER BALT TO HATTERAS CNYNS AS WELL AS BALT CNYN TO

HAGUE LINE WATERS. BY TUE NON GFS GLBL MDLS MOVE COLD FRNT JUST

SE OF MID ATLC WATERS WHILE 12Z GFS BRINGS SHARP UPPER SHRTWV

JUST E OF MID/SRN MS VALLEY LATE TUE...AND DVLPG SFC LOW TOWARD

CAROLINA COAST RESULTING IN MUCH STRONG TO GALE SW WINDS S OF

HATTERAS CNYN. AM FAVORING THE WEAKER MDL CONSENSUS.

12Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III WAS AGAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH SIG

WV HGTS FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN MAINLY IN AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS

NEW ENGL/NRN MID ATLC WATERS FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT. BASED ON

PERFORMANCE OF MWW3 IN SIMILIAR PREVIOUS EVENTS...WILL BE

BUMPING UP THESE VALUES BY AT LEAST 15 TO 20 PERCENT. AS MWW3

HAS CONSITENTLY BEEN TRENDING HIER THE 12Z ECMWF WAVE MDL IS

ONLY SLIGHTLY HIER THAN 12Z MWW3 NOW. OVER ABOVE WATERS MAY GO

AS HIGH AS WAVEWATCH III ENSEMBLE MAX SIG WV HGT...THAT IS

AROUND 40 FT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT

BETWEEN THE 12Z ESTOFS AND 12Z ETSS SURGE HGTS...WITH MAXES ONLY

A FEW TENTHS FT OFF...ESTOFS HIGHER. WITH THE THOUGHT THAT WILL

LIKELY SEE 925MB WINDS MIXING TO SFC POLEWARD OF OCCLUSION

INCLUDING BENT BACK PORTION...THAT THESE MDLS ARE RUN OFF THE

GFS 10M WINDS...AND WITH PREFERENCE FOR ECMWF TRACK WHICH IS

SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO COAST...THESE SURGE VALUES ARE UNDERDONE.

.WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE

COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

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