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February 8th-9th Potential Bomb Part III


earthlight

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I don't understand this. The NAM shows everyone getting 2-4" OF QPF, almost all snow for everyone, except for maybe a couple of hours during the transfer. This is a flat-out crippling, crushing snowstorm. 18+ is conservative's conservative. The NAM dumps 30+" of snow for everyone, east Jersey and east.

because you are taking the NAM verbatim when everyone knows it overdoes qpf...if the Euro and GFS all show 3 feet for everyone and all the other models then yeah maybe they go with the higher amounts. You are model hugging here. Nothing wrong with starting with the lower totals with the possibility for more but you are not going to get exactly what the NAM spits out

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because you are taking the NAM verbatim when everyone knows it overdoes qpf...if the Euro and GFS all show 3 feet for everyone and all the other models then yeah maybe they go with the higher amounts. You are model hugging here. Nothing wrong with starting with the lower totals with the possibility for more but you are not going to get exactly what the NAM spits out

understand..nobody is saying we get 3 feet lol..but Euro does back it up with close to 2 feet over the eastern sections..it has great support..when you sort of have the Euro on your side you can take it serious

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because you are taking the NAM verbatim when everyone knows it overdoes qpf...if the Euro and GFS all show 3 feet for everyone and all the other models then yeah maybe they go with the higher amounts. You are model hugging here. Nothing wrong with starting with the lower totals with the possibility for more but you are not going to get exactly what the NAM spits out

Read my other posts. already acknowledged it's too high. That wasn't my point.

 

Edit, and yeah, it does have support. Euro and SREFs.

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I'm almost positive that that is snow. The snowflakes will not be able to melt given the heavy rates. 

well the previous 2 3 hr periods are basically identical. So JFK might be wire-to-wire snow, with what seem like 3.8 QPF...LOL. 

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Wow, and those likely will be adjusted even higher later tonight/tomorrow. Given the southern stream/Gulf origin, I can see the high QPF amounts here. I don't see models being hugely overdone

That's the 12z GFS basically, the NWS will never learn. :facepalm:

I've no problem with them doing this now and adjusting upwards as we go but the Euro is completely embarassing all other models not showing it's depiction at all levels so to go with more of a GFS solution for totals here well is delaying the inevitable anyway.

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