Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Can we get some BUFKIT from the NAM for KMMU, KEWR, KSMQ, KNYC? I could only imagine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 mets/enthusiasts- looking at the hr 33 skew-t of JFK, is that sleet or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
denvillenj Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That was, without a doubt, the most extreme model run I've seen around here in regards to snow. less than 24 hours away too Hall of Fame Run for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't understand this. The NAM shows everyone getting 2-4" OF QPF, almost all snow for everyone, except for maybe a couple of hours during the transfer. This is a flat-out crippling, crushing snowstorm. 18+ is conservative's conservative. The NAM dumps 30+" of snow for everyone, east Jersey and east. because you are taking the NAM verbatim when everyone knows it overdoes qpf...if the Euro and GFS all show 3 feet for everyone and all the other models then yeah maybe they go with the higher amounts. You are model hugging here. Nothing wrong with starting with the lower totals with the possibility for more but you are not going to get exactly what the NAM spits out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 HR 36 still ripping for the a good portion of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 mets/enthusiasts- looking at the hr 33 skew-t of JFK, is that sleet or snow? I'm almost positive that that is snow. The snowflakes will not be able to melt given the heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When does the storm end completely? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 because you are taking the NAM verbatim when everyone knows it overdoes qpf...if the Euro and GFS all show 3 feet for everyone and all the other models then yeah maybe they go with the higher amounts. You are model hugging here. Nothing wrong with starting with the lower totals with the possibility for more but you are not going to get exactly what the NAM spits out understand..nobody is saying we get 3 feet lol..but Euro does back it up with close to 2 feet over the eastern sections..it has great support..when you sort of have the Euro on your side you can take it serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 mets/enthusiasts- looking at the hr 33 skew-t of JFK, is that sleet or snow? That's snow buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Can we get some BUFKIT from the NAM for KMMU, KEWR, KSMQ, KNYC? I could only imagine... JFK LGA, ISP please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Upton has not done their 4pm update yet have they? Still showing watches for the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 HR 36 still ripping for the a good portion of the area it snows thru hour 48 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 because you are taking the NAM verbatim when everyone knows it overdoes qpf...if the Euro and GFS all show 3 feet for everyone and all the other models then yeah maybe they go with the higher amounts. You are model hugging here. Nothing wrong with starting with the lower totals with the possibility for more but you are not going to get exactly what the NAM spits out Read my other posts. already acknowledged it's too high. That wasn't my point. Edit, and yeah, it does have support. Euro and SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BLIZZARD WARNING. NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anybody here have a snowplow or snowblower? Looks like they will come in handy in a couple of days . Doubt either could handle 2+ feet of heavy, wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 TWC just increased their totals for NYC to 12-18 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Upton has not done their 4pm update yet have they? Still showing watches for the metro area. not yet they should get thrown up in a couple mins, but they have uped totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Upton has not done their 4pm update yet have they? Still showing watches for the metro area.I don't think so- its a big forecast package this update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow, and those likely will be adjusted even higher later tonight/tomorrow. Given the southern stream/Gulf origin, I can see the high QPF amounts here. I don't see models being hugely overdone Yeah, this is the precip they are basing it on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm almost positive that that is snow. The snowflakes will not be able to melt given the heavy rates. well the previous 2 3 hr periods are basically identical. So JFK might be wire-to-wire snow, with what seem like 3.8 QPF...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i` Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It looks like the phasing tomorrow night introduces an intense banding merger with excellent aerial coverage to the heavy snow amounts. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NAMSFC4_18z/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Dudes, upton issued a bliz warning for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6 to 10 would seem a bit low around here but theres time to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, this is the precip they are basing it on.... Yeah depending on what the next GFS and EURO runs show they could be upping the precip numbers and the snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Dudes, upton issued a bliz warning for NYC Woooohoooo pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just got an alert on my iphone telling me there is a blizzard warning! so cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Woooohoooo pretty cool 12z fri - 15z sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow, and those likely will be adjusted even higher later tonight/tomorrow. Given the southern stream/Gulf origin, I can see the high QPF amounts here. I don't see models being hugely overdone That's the 12z GFS basically, the NWS will never learn. I've no problem with them doing this now and adjusting upwards as we go but the Euro is completely embarassing all other models not showing it's depiction at all levels so to go with more of a GFS solution for totals here well is delaying the inevitable anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Blizzard warningggg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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