IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 torching seriously?maybe mixing for afew hours, but sayig torching is absurd Agreed, I thought in storm mode posts like that wouldn't be allowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 39 heavy snow blizzard conditions likely ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 torching seriously?maybe mixing for afew hours, but sayig torching is absurd 12z NAM was warmer, and every single other model is colder yet. Rain won't cut down on the back end totals. I think that any place that does mix for a while has a good shot at ending with more snow in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This run is colder than 12z, though. An earlier phase and a quicker developing storm helps us to benefit from the ageostrophic flow earlier. Signficantly colder than prior run and now matches thermal profiles of GFS/EURO/Other models....NYC N&W 80-90% Snow or more...EPIC RUN. Verbatim would give 1996 and 2010 a run for the money... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This run is too aggressive...even BOS would have mixing problems. ummm i dont see that through 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ok, time to throw Blizzard Warnings up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The ECMWF and Euro ensembles and to a good extent the SREF's support this well. The low closing off over NC would just be incredible. I guess I wouldn't rule it out, but the progressive flow would argue against it to an extent, and other models close it off nearer to us. If that were true, the New England guys might not like it as it could max out and occlude too soon for some of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 2-3"+ QPF for the whole NY Metro area. Everything north of 40.5N looks like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Basically, NAM is 20-40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hr 42 mod to heavy snow continues. epic run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Everything's all ready to go... Excellent trends today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Damn, Power outages are going to be a HUGE problem here . Heavy, wet snow at the onset? Winds cranking towards hurricane force? Good luck power companies.. As well as the safety for people. I work for Con Edison not going to be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Under a Winter Storm Warning now for 6-10" of snow with a trace of ice possible. I have a feeling these accumulation numbers will go up later tonight or tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mt. Holly going with WINTER STORM WARNINGS ON A LINE FROM OCEAN COUNTY TO TRENTON North east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 2-3"+ QPF for the whole NY Metro area. Everything north of 40.5N looks like snow. There is a large swath of 3-4" qpf as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That's not a torch. Most soundings are essentially isothermal with the heavy precip, with maybe a small warm layer just below 850mb. skew-t's even for JFK are cold enough after h24 on the 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thats as good as it gets folks, that 700 low track is classic, might sniff a sleet pellet for a few minutes and then its just an aboslute crush job.....coldest and most impressive run yet, anybody saying otherwise is trolling. Dear Lord what a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Everything's all ready to go... Excellent trends today grearth 2013-02-07 15-22-45-38.png Wow, hadn't looked at the WV in a few hours. That's a beautiful classic leaf shape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thats as good as it gets folks, that 700 low track is classic, might sniff a sleet pellet for a few minutes and then its just an aboslute crush job.....coldest and most impressive run yet, anybody saying otherwise is trolling. Dear Lord what a run Enjoy joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There is a large swath of 3-4" qpf as well. lol yeah note the '3"+'. However a lot of the 3"+ amounts are over southern NJ and south shore of LI which will start as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This isn't just epic people. If this run verified, this would be a bonafied BECS. I mean, at some point, we admit we've seen so many HECS recently, that we need a new classification. This is as close to the perfect storm as we can get. MJO baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the snow maps are just INCREDIBLE on this nam run. i can't believe what I'm seeing. if the nam verifies (doubtful unless more guidance support), it will rival '96 for #1. Widespread 1-2' from central jersey up to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 After looking at today's runs come in colder; I dont think mixing will be a problem anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 39 everyone still getting hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 skew-t's even for JFK are cold enough after h24 on the 18Z NAM Awesome! Thanks for checking them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This isn't just epic people. If this run verified, this would be a bonafied BECS. I mean, at some point, we admit we've seen so many HECS recently, that we need a new classification. This is as close to the perfect storm as we can get. MJO baby! Easy now. And you guys are riding me for being pessimistic, this is just as weenie-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The soundings for JFK ticked down a few tenths of a degree in the lower few thousand feet from the 12z NAM run. So this run is a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NJ - BOS bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What is this? (From hour 39) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This run is too aggressive...even BOS would have mixing problems. JFK has almost zero issue after h24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.