psv88 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The SREF's are pretty warm through 0z tomorrow night for the coast so it will all come down to the CCB at night not slipping a little further east for the best wraparound snows. R-S transitions are very tricky to forecast correctly so it should be a nowcast event. f39.gif It will definitely be close, and the difference between 6 inches, which is a lock, and 20 inches, which will be nearby. I think south shore north shore will have huge differences again, esp out in suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The differences are staggering from the 6z run. This run might do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sim radar hr 24 hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 30, phase in process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 30 snow/rain line up to ewr give or take. Ccb getting going in se jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Going to wait until after 12z before really sounding the horn, but we have huge potential if the pieces align in time for us. But even the very amped Euro put us on a short leash, so last minute trends are always consequential for us. Hopefully high risk=high reward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The southern stream actually has a tiny closed contour right over Delaware at 30 hours (on my WSI maps), and looks very potent, along with a northern stream that's digging even more. This run is going to be ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Great run, hr 30 the 850 freezing line is right over the city, probably still snow for most with the low off the VA capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Going to wait until after 12z before really sounding the horn, but we have huge potential if the pieces align in time for us. But even the very amped Euro put us on a short leash, so last minute trends are always consequential for us. Hopefully high risk=high reward? Long island so freakin borderline right now. Real chance of 12-18, but could still be 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 30 deform banding (CCB) already underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is going to be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is one of the more dramatic shifts you'll ever see from a 6z to a 12z run at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And there you go guys. The NAM gave in to King EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 it's warm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 33 snow from city-nw. Ccb starting to crank. Going to be a mother of god run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is going to be a huge hit for areas N and E of the city, probably 12"+, at this point with the NAM onboard I think Upton is going to have to raise their totals for Long Island and SW CT/Westchester... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6z GFS hr 36 vs hr 33 on 12z, seeing the southern stream at last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Surface temps and 850s look to be exactly the same at 33 hours, indicating an isothermal sounding and a wet snow bomb. Coastal areas are probably transitioning to snow at 33 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 it's warm though Yup. Not N and W, but for the CIty. When it pulls away, I'd imagine NYC and LI get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 36 rain/snow line looks to be riding 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I still wouldn't be surprised if it trends a little bit colder due to the earlier phase. Remember, the mechanism for warming us up depends on the northern stream staying dominant and the primary dragging warm air in. Heavy initial precip can also delay changeovers, seen this a number of times. The front end could be snowier than we think, hopefully. And obviously, hopefully the main coastal low trends stronger and closer so we get crushed later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Seriously sharp cutoff in E PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 it's warm though Maybe some mixing issues after the initial front end thump for the city and south shore, but NW of the city stays almost all snow and the real CCB hasn't even arrived yet which will cool the column dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 nam caved..........sw ct snowbomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Very warm though. Lot of rain in the city. Isn't the NAM supposed to be very good with temp profiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Seriously sharp cutoff in E PA. That's going to happen in just about every coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 it's warm though Through 33, yes, but given that the surface 32 F line and 850mb 0 line are right on top of each other at 33 hours, the sounding has definitely become isothermal, and coastal areas look to be switching over to snow at 33 hours, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think if the track is as depicted people do best NW of the city not NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 36 still a somewhat sloppy phase ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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