SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 With temps in the 20s now snow ratio may be higher than I originally thought You'll start off 8 or 10 to 1 and progress to 12-14 to 1 possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I honestly don't think it does. There are portions of the precip where the surface temperatures are a bit above freezing, but it looks like pretty much all snow for NYC, and for JFK, probably 2" or slightly higher or so of that 2.7" of QPF are all snow. Thanks Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 New map from Upton, looks like no changes. Dare I say this is where Bloomberg got his forecast from? Created: 02/07/13 12:40 PM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 mt hollfy afd sounds bullish for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 From Mt. Holly AFDWE`VE HAD AN EASTERN REGION CONFERENCE CALL WITH NCEP AT NOON ANDUNLESS THE ECMWF BACKS OFF CONSIDERABLY TO THE SE IN THE 12ZRUN...WE WILL WARN AND ADVISE. DETAILS TO BE FORTHCOMING AROUND230 PM. Well since the Euro actually came a bit west, expect warnings to go out in a half an hour for Mt. Holly's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i woiuldn't be surprised for blizzard watches/warnings being extended with the next update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Think you are goin to see an area wide 12- 18 off these news numbers , with the mention of up to 24 . From Upton and Mt Holly from Western Monmouth North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Im sorry. I respectively disagree here. The euro for NYC and LGA is 2.25" and 2.39" of total precip. Surface temps start at 36 degrees right when precip enters at 7am. By 1pm it's 34 degrees and only .26" has fallen. Anything after that is 33 degrees and below and as low as 26 degrees Saturday early morning. At worst, .25"-.30" of the precip is wet snow/mix and 2"-2.13" of it is pure and super heavy accumulating snow. Even using only 10 to 1 ratio, it's 20"+ for NYC and LGA. and I doubt that it will 10:1 considering the temps at h7 and even h8 once in the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It looks like about 15-16 inches for NYC/LGA/EWR/JFK region overall on the Euro, but I'd be wary of that changeover being earlier and hence more of that other 0.70-0.80 being snow, the Euro has a changeover maybe around 01Z, but it could easily be 4-5 hours before that I think. I'm thinking we're mostly in a very good position. You always have to watch the warm surge from primary low situations like this and I think still there's at least some mixing for coastal areas, but as that low cranks up what does mix rapidly goes to plastering snow. If we have a stalling or crawling deformation band, amounts could be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 New map from Upton, looks like no changes. Dare I say this is where Bloomberg got his forecast from? they are definitely thinking higher at this point. snipped from the afd: KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 INCHES. STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW INTO SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks Man. No problem. Turned out text soundings supported 1.9" of precip for JFK as snow, which obviously is great! I'm still skeptical of widespread 2"+ precip amounts for all of our area given the lack of a true block, but this storm will definitely come to a crawl and 1.5 to 2.0" of precip certainly seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You'll start off 8 or 10 to 1 and progress to 12-14 to 1 possibly. This storm could rival lots of records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No problem. KFWN sees 1.27" of liquid on the ECMWF. All snow. Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 New map from Upton, looks like no changes. Dare I say this is where Bloomberg got his forecast from? This is from mid morning. Does not take into account 12z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not only did the euro hold but it got even better with regard to QPF, location of low. I wonder what the amounts from mt holly will be. They can get pretty bullish in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 New map from Upton, looks like no changes. Dare I say this is where Bloomberg got his forecast from? Those numbers haven't changed since mid-morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I noticed that there was a 50/50 low last night on most models though. No problem. Turned out text soundings supported 1.9" of precip for JFK as snow, which obviously is great! I'm still skeptical of widespread 2"+ precip amounts for all of our area given the lack of a true block, but this storm will definitely come to a crawl and 1.5 to 2.0" of precip certainly seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I noticed that there was a 50/50 low last night on most models though. Slightly displaced, but it does its job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is from mid morning. Does not take into account 12z data. It was created at 12:40 which was after the GFS and NAM. I didn't understand why they didn't wait for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not only did the euro hold but it got even better with regard to QPF, location of low. I wonder what the amounts from mt holly will be. They can get pretty bullish in these situations. They update awhile ago and increased amounts by 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I noticed that there was a 50/50 low last night on most models though. Yes, there certainly is. And I guess that's the point of having a block to begin with, is to force a 50/50 low to remain in place. The pattern is still just a bit progressive, which is why I'm skeptical of the widespread 2-3" QPF amounts for now, but it still clearly supports a widespread 1.5 to 2" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It was created at 12:40 which was after the GFS and NAM. I didn't understand why they didn't wait for the Euro. Its just a re-stamped version of the AM map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For reference, top 10 highest snowfalls in NYC: 1) 26.9" Feb 11-12, 20062) 26.4" Dec 26-27, 19473) 21.0" Mar 12-14, 18884) 20.8" Feb 25-26, 20105) 20.2" Jan 7-8, 19966) 20.0" Dec 26-27, 20107) 19.8" Feb 16-17, 20038) 19.0" Jan 26-27, 20119) 18.1" Mar 7-8, 194110) 17.7" Feb 5-7, 1978 Euro verbatim is Top 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Appologies for the IMBY question....but I live in Staten Island, is it better to use KNYC or KEWR for a reporting station? Thanks for all the hard work and knowledge -Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You have to look at that list and really wonder. If you were a 90's kid (folks in their 20's and 30's today), you have been through 6/10 of the greatest snowfalls in NYC, and quite possibly heading towards 7/10. I don't think it's a coincidence. Folks from the Greatest Generation will tell you that something fishy has been going on. For reference, top 10 highest snowfalls in NYC: Euro verbatim is Top 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Does anyone have a good idea for western NJ. I live near PHillipsburg. I am seeing qpf. Est. near 1" here or better yet the only forcast amounts I am seeing are 3-6". Makes little sence unless temps keep precip mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 They update awhile ago and increased amounts by 3-6" I believe thats this mornings , I think we will get updated by 4 pm , and should look a little different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 JB goin 1 to 2 feet NYC , 24 Suffolk County East . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 To go through such a warm winter last year to a record breaking December and half of January this winter and possibly pull off another KU is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You have to look at that list and really wonder. If you were a 90's kid (folks in their 20's and 30's today), you have been through 6/10 of the greatest snowfalls in NYC, and quite possibly heading towards 7/10. I don't think it's a coincidence. Folks from the Greatest Generation will tell you that something fishy has been going on. Meanwhile its pretty much impossible for us break record lows outside of the months of May-August and I think our last top 10 coldest month was July 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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