Mitchel Volk Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Best Analog I can find is from Feb 22-28 1969, just shift it SW a few hundred miles, that is the best I can come up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's amazing what a 50-75 miles shift can do as well and all it takes is some faster phasing or so. There's definitely a bust potential out there either way, but I think we're more likely to see more snow than less. Can you imagine if the Nam was correct? ya its pretty crazy how sensitive these dynamics are. I'm tempering my expectations for now, but a solution like the NAM would be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Did anybody ever post the GGEM?..similar to the RGEM? Similar, very cold, 850 0C doesnt make it north of I-195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We just don't have very many analog split flow snowy phase bombs.Our best storms are usually all STJ developments or when the whole northern stream is forced south under a block. Most of the split flow phasing events of the past have blasted either New England or the Maritimes. This is a very rare set up for us and an interesting study case. I have been looking at 83' these past few days, it's somewhat similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's amazing what a 50-75 miles shift can do as well and all it takes is some faster phasing or so. There's definitely a bust potential out there either way, but I think we're more likely to see more snow than less. Can you imagine if the Nam was correct? Whats funny is if even it was 50% correct it would still yield 12-18" area wide.. smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I have been looking at 83' these past few days, it's somewhat similar CIPS has 83 for track, but that was a strong El Nino STJ disturbance without a wave in the northern stream dying out in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If the Euro continues to show 2 inches liquid that`s frozen , You are gona see the private guys , call for 12- 24 accross NYC . These guys wana pull the trigger so bad , but thats the guidance they most care about . So they are keeping with the 12 inch MAX ... Will know by 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here is the LGA NAM FOUS TT PTT R1 R2 R3VVV LI PS DD FF HH T1 T3 T5 30 037 96 94 62 083 08 13 06 26 41 00 01 99 36 130 94 94 55 007 08 03 04 33 43 00 00 00 42 145 95 86 35 043 22 01 35 27 32 95 92 94 48 028 88 86 37 -14 24 05 33 28 24 92 88 88 54 001 72 82 36 -04 21 09 34 30 26 94 87 90 as you can see only hour 30 has anything over 0C (bolded) at any level of the atmosphere...1.30" and 1.45" QPF in consecutive 6 hour periods...WOW EDIT - there could be an embedded level (850-900) that has a nose of warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Whats funny is if even it was 50% correct it would still yield 12-18" area wide.. smh The NAM always seems to be biased on the high side with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 CIPS has 83 for track, but that was a strong El Nino STJ disturbance without a wave in the northern stream dying out in the OV. Yeah this one is def unique. 83' didn't bomb out like this one is progged to do either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah this one is def unique. 83' didn't bomb out like this one is progged to do either. 12/19/09 was more like 83, there was no real phase in 83 it was basically a southern disturbance amplifying on its own due to a very unique pattern. I think this is still closer to a more SE version of 12/25/02, this time you've got what went on over NRN PA and Upstate NY occurring near the coast. 2/12/06 is in the CIPS analogs too but that was more a true single coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah this one is def unique. 83' didn't bomb out like this one is progged to do either. We have been seeing plenty of unique events around here lately to keep us on our toes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah this one is def unique. 83' didn't bomb out like this one is progged to do either. Not a great analog for anyone south of 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12/19/09 was more like 83, there was no real phase in 83 it was basically a southern disturbance amplifying on its own due to a very unique pattern. I think this is still closer to a more SE version of 12/25/02, this time you've got what went on over NRN PA and Upstate NY occurring near the coast. 2/12/06 is in the CIPS analogs too but that was more a true single coastal storm. DING DING - 12/25/02 is #2 on the list and to me a much better overall analog. However, I do not expect SE MA to get zero snow... 2/12/06 is #3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DING DING - 12/25/02 is #2 on the list and to me a much better overall analog 4/6/82 I think still matches the 500mb pattern right but this time the surface low re-develops way more south as opposed to just off NJ or the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the 12z JMA is uh, lets say, epic...precip amounts off the chart lol like close to 3in over the area and longisland/ct northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the 12z JMA is uh, lets say, epic How epic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 JMA=My god http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 12/19/09 was more like 83, there was no real phase in 83 it was basically a southern disturbance amplifying on its own due to a very unique pattern. I think this is still closer to a more SE version of 12/25/02, this time you've got what went on over NRN PA and Upstate NY occurring near the coast. 2/12/06 is in the CIPS analogs too but that was more a true single coastal storm. These northern-southern stream phasers usually happen too late for us like 2-19-04 which makes this such a rare storm for us. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us0219.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 JMA=My god http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Lol, goodbye Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Does anyone feel Upton with their 4PM package will extend Blizzard watches westard into western LI/NYC/NE NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol, goodbye Long Island. Talk about Clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Does anyone feel Upton with their 4PM package will extend Blizzard watches westard into western LI/NYC/NE NJ? Yes, but wait for the Euro first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol, goodbye Long Island. Meaning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Does anyone feel Upton with their 4PM package will extend Blizzard watches westard into western LI/NYC/NE NJ? yes...maybe not 4pm but by tn or tmrw morning blizzard warnings would probably include fairfield and nassau cty at the minimum. I'd say 50/50 blizzard warning for NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 um, wow.. jma is la epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 These northern-southern stream phasers usually happen too late for us like 2-19-04 which makes this such a rare storm for us. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004/us0219.php I remember that one, that was the closest near miss I had ever seen up to that time, 40 mile shift and we'd have been slammed there was heavy snow 20 miles SE of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 2-4 inches of accumulated precip http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Meaning? LOADS of snow/wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Meaning? Dump trucks of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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