February 8th-9th Potential Bomb Part III

[PB GFI]

So no one jumps off a cliff later , The NAM always has 1 super charged run 1- 2 days out .

So when 18 -24 doesnt show up later , theres noting wrong . SREF - EURO blend . The GFS is FAIR

1 - 1.25 frozen qpf is a good avg to go by .

[NorthShoreWx]

Mayor Bloomberg (NYC) just held a press conference and he (and the City's Sanitation Department) is expecting a 4-6 inch snowfall by Saturday morning.

And Sandy was just a run of the mill storm.

[bluewave]

The main difference between the NAM and GFS is the NAM has the earlier phase. I would probably

defer to the 12z Euro today for the phasing details. Even a compromise between the GFS and NAM

would be a really nice storm.

 

 

[SR Airglow]

Not sure what Bloomberg is thinking, not a single model supports him right now...

 

-skisheep

[MJO812]

6-12 is a good call right now

[Kaner587]

The main difference between the NAM and GFS is the NAM has the earlier phase. I would probably

defer to the 12z Euro today for the phasing details. Even a compromise between the GFS and NAM

would be a really nice storm.

 

f36G.gif

 

f36.gif

and that is what I think is the best call at this point. would be an MECS for all

[SnowGoose69]

The NOGAPS looks closer than the GFS...

 

[Kaner587]

we get in on some of the heavier precip on the nogaps...12-18mm or 0.5-0.75 roughly in that timeframe...city eastward

[Snowlover11]

Bloomberg will get wrecked again if the nam was to score one up here.

[mikemurph44]

These storms tend to have very sharp cutoffs. When you have very intense banding and synoptics taking place the areas directly under the banding can see a ton while areas to either side can see half that or even less. The best banding for Boxing day stayed just to my east. That's why I got 14" and Wayne just to my east got 20" plus.

. Exactly, it's the laws of physics, when you have intense lifting in the deform band, there has to be subsidence/sinking around it, equal and opposite reaction. I think there will be a real sharp cutoff west/northwest of NYC

[SnoSki14]

Red Flag is the usually east biased Nogaps is closer than the gfs?

[DaveTinNY]

Hence, my dry slot fears...

[SnowGoose69]

Red Flag is the usually east biased Nogaps is closer than the gfs?

 

Its precip shield does not look all that much closer but its surface low track sure does and yeah that could be a sign the GFS is too far east but I'd want to see the Euro more west too, even with the RGEM more west than the GFS.

[ace0927]

12z NAM bufkit for the    

 

KMMU

 

130208/0600Z  18  08010KT  29.2F  SNOW    8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    8:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/0700Z  19  09010KT  29.2F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

130208/0800Z  20  08010KT  29.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

130208/0900Z  21  08010KT  29.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0

130208/1000Z  22  07010KT  29.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0

130208/1100Z  23  07010KT  29.7F  SNOW    8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    8:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0

130208/1200Z  24  07011KT  30.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1300Z  25  07011KT  31.0F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0

130208/1400Z  26  07012KT  31.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    7:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0

130208/1500Z  27  07013KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    7:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

130208/1600Z  28  06015KT  31.0F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    8:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0

130208/1700Z  29  05016KT  30.6F  SNOW    5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074    7:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0

130208/1800Z  30  05016KT  30.3F  SNPL    3:1| 0.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.090    6:1|  1.6|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.29   60| 40|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1900Z  31  05016KT  30.8F  SNPL    1:1| 0.2|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.139    4:1|  1.8|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 0.42   26| 74|  0

130208/2000Z  32  05015KT  30.8F  SNOW    6:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119    5:1|  2.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 0.54  100|  0|  0

130208/2100Z  33  05015KT  30.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111    5:1|  3.4|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 0.66  100|  0|  0

130208/2200Z  34  05018KT  29.7F  SNOW    8:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.184    6:1|  5.0|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 0.84  100|  0|  0

130208/2300Z  35  04020KT  29.2F  SNOW    7:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197    6:1|  6.4|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.04  100|  0|  0

130209/0000Z  36  03019KT  29.0F  SNOW    7:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140    6:1|  7.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.18  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0100Z  37  02017KT  28.8F  SNOW   11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148    7:1|  9.1|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.33  100|  0|  0

130209/0200Z  38  01017KT  28.3F  SNOW   14:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.177    8:1| 11.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.50  100|  0|  0

130209/0300Z  39  36017KT  27.4F  SNOW   13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.228    8:1| 14.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.73  100|  0|  0

130209/0400Z  40  35016KT  26.0F  SNOW   16:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.254    9:1| 18.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 1.98  100|  0|  0

130209/0500Z  41  35017KT  24.3F  SNOW   13:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.231   10:1| 21.5|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.21  100|  0|  0

130209/0600Z  42  35018KT  22.9F  SNOW    9:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.137   10:1| 22.8|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.35  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0700Z  43  34019KT  21.6F  SNOW   11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084   10:1| 23.7|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.44  100|  0|  0

130209/0800Z  44  34019KT  20.7F  SNOW   17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057   10:1| 24.6|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.49  100|  0|  0

130209/0900Z  45  34019KT  19.7F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   10:1| 25.4|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.55  100|  0|  0

130209/1000Z  46  33019KT  19.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044   10:1| 25.7|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.59  100|  0|  0

130209/1100Z  47  33019KT  19.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036   10:1| 26.0|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.63  100|  0|  0

130209/1200Z  48  33019KT  18.6F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   10:1| 26.1|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.65  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/1300Z  49  33020KT  18.0F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   10:1| 26.2|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 2.66  100|  0|  0

 

KHPN

 

130208/1200Z  24  08016KT  31.2F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1300Z  25  08017KT  31.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0

130208/1400Z  26  08018KT  31.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    9:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0

130208/1500Z  27  08018KT  31.2F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038   10:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

130208/1600Z  28  07019KT  30.8F  SNOW   10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047   10:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12  100|  0|  0

130208/1700Z  29  06020KT  30.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076    9:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0

130208/1800Z  30  06020KT  30.5F  SNPL    3:1| 0.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.089    7:1|  2.0|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.29   59| 41|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1900Z  31  06018KT  31.9F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.124    7:1|  2.0|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.41    3| 97|  0

130208/2000Z  32  06017KT  31.7F  SNOW    5:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116    6:1|  2.6|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0

130208/2100Z  33  06018KT  30.6F  SNOW    5:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119    6:1|  3.1|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.65  100|  0|  0

130208/2200Z  34  06021KT  30.1F  SNOW    7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.197    6:1|  4.5|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 0.84  100|  0|  0

130208/2300Z  35  05023KT  29.9F  SNOW    7:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219    6:1|  6.0|| 0.32|| 0.00|| 1.06  100|  0|  0

130209/0000Z  36  04023KT  30.3F  SNPL    7:1| 1.5|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.209    7:1|  7.5|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 1.27   81| 19|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0100Z  37  03023KT  31.2F  SNPL    9:1| 3.7|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 0.401    7:1| 11.3|| 0.59|| 0.00|| 1.67   77| 23|  0

130209/0200Z  38  02022KT  31.5F  SNPL    7:1| 3.3|| 0.39|| 0.00|| 0.443    7:1| 14.5|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 2.11   56| 44|  0

130209/0300Z  39  01020KT  29.4F  SNOW   15:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.226    8:1| 17.8|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 2.34  100|  0|  0

130209/0400Z  40  36019KT  27.6F  SNOW    8:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.241    8:1| 19.7|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 2.58  100|  0|  0

130209/0500Z  41  35021KT  25.2F  SNOW    5:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213    8:1| 20.9|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 2.79  100|  0|  0

130209/0600Z  42  34022KT  22.7F  SNOW    5:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144    8:1| 21.6|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 2.94  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0700Z  43  34022KT  20.0F  SNOW   10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106    8:1| 22.7|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.05  100|  0|  0

130209/0800Z  44  34023KT  18.2F  SNOW   16:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080    8:1| 24.0|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.13  100|  0|  0

130209/0900Z  45  34024KT  17.5F  SNOW   16:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065    8:1| 25.1|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.19  100|  0|  0

130209/1000Z  46  33023KT  17.0F  SNOW   14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    8:1| 25.7|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.24  100|  0|  0

130209/1100Z  47  33023KT  16.4F  SNOW   13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    8:1| 26.2|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.27  100|  0|  0

130209/1200Z  48  33023KT  15.9F  SNOW   20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    8:1| 26.7|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.30  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/1300Z  49  33024KT  15.9F  SNOW   21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    8:1| 26.9|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.31  100|  0|  0

130209/1400Z  50  33026KT  16.4F  SNOW   18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    8:1| 26.9|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.31  100|  0|  0

130209/1500Z  51  33027KT  17.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    8:1| 26.9|| 0.98|| 0.00|| 3.31    0|  0|  0

 

KSWF

 

130208/1200Z  24  07009KT  25.2F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004    7:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1300Z  25  08010KT  26.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

130208/1400Z  26  08011KT  29.0F  SNOW    8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

130208/1500Z  27  09012KT  30.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0

130208/1600Z  28  08012KT  30.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    9:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0

130208/1700Z  29  06012KT  30.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    9:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0

130208/1800Z  30  05014KT  29.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    8:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1900Z  31  05015KT  28.8F  SNOW    6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.071    7:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0

130208/2000Z  32  04015KT  28.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086    7:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0

130208/2100Z  33  05015KT  28.5F  SNOW    4:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.097    6:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0

130208/2200Z  34  06016KT  28.3F  SNOW    5:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098    6:1|  2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46  100|  0|  0

130208/2300Z  35  05018KT  27.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115    6:1|  3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58  100|  0|  0

130209/0000Z  36  04020KT  26.7F  SNOW   10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113    7:1|  4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0100Z  37  03020KT  26.0F  SNOW    8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.123    7:1|  5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0

130209/0200Z  38  02021KT  25.4F  SNOW   11:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153    8:1|  7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96  100|  0|  0

130209/0300Z  39  01022KT  24.2F  SNOW   14:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213    9:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18  100|  0|  0

130209/0400Z  40  01022KT  22.2F  SNOW   14:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.244   10:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.42  100|  0|  0

130209/0500Z  41  36021KT  20.0F  SNOW   16:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.295   11:1| 18.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.72  100|  0|  0

130209/0600Z  42  36021KT  18.0F  SNOW   14:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.273   11:1| 22.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.99  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0700Z  43  35022KT  16.6F  SNOW   18:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230   12:1| 26.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.22  100|  0|  0

130209/0800Z  44  35022KT  16.1F  SNOW   23:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178   13:1| 30.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.40  100|  0|  0

130209/0900Z  45  35022KT  15.9F  SNOW   18:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.156   13:1| 33.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.55  100|  0|  0

130209/1000Z  46  35022KT  15.7F  SNOW   18:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113   13:1| 35.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.67  100|  0|  0

130209/1100Z  47  35022KT  15.5F  SNOW   18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083   13:1| 36.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.75  100|  0|  0

130209/1200Z  48  35022KT  15.2F  SNOW   17:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053   13:1| 37.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.80  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/1300Z  49  34022KT  14.8F  SNOW   17:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039   14:1| 38.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.84  100|  0|  0

130209/1400Z  50  34022KT  15.0F  SNOW   26:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   14:1| 38.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.86  100|  0|  0

130209/1500Z  51  34023KT  16.1F  SNOW   26:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005   14:1| 39.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.86  100|  0|  0

 

KLGA

 

130208/1100Z  23  07010KT  32.8F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   81|  0| 19

130208/1200Z  24  07011KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   61|  5| 35

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1300Z  25  07012KT  33.7F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   36| 23| 41

130208/1400Z  26  07013KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07   67|  0| 33

130208/1500Z  27  06014KT  32.8F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.046    8:1|  0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.12   46| 33| 21

130208/1600Z  28  05017KT  33.0F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087    8:1|  0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.20   21| 47| 31

130208/1700Z  29  05019KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099    8:1|  0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.30    0|  0|100

130208/1800Z  30  05018KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107    8:1|  0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.41    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1900Z  31  05018KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146    8:1|  0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.55    0|  0|100

130208/2000Z  32  05018KT  33.0F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159    8:1|  0.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.71   18| 77|  6

130208/2100Z  33  05019KT  32.3F  SNPL    6:1| 1.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.152    3:1|  1.0|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.87   88| 12|  0

130208/2200Z  34  04022KT  32.1F  SNPL    4:1| 0.9|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.226    3:1|  1.9|| 0.36|| 0.00|| 1.09   46| 54|  0

130208/2300Z  35  04025KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.343    3:1|  1.9|| 0.36|| 0.00|| 1.44    0|  0|100

130209/0000Z  36  04024KT  32.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.344    3:1|  1.9|| 0.36|| 0.00|| 1.78    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0100Z  37  03022KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.412    3:1|  1.9|| 0.36|| 0.00|| 2.19    0|  0|100

130209/0200Z  38  01019KT  32.6F  SNPL    8:1| 3.3|| 0.37|| 0.00|| 0.404    5:1|  5.2|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 2.59   54| 38|  8

130209/0300Z  39  36017KT  30.3F  SNOW    9:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.252    6:1|  7.6|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 2.85  100|  0|  0

130209/0400Z  40  35018KT  28.7F  SNOW    5:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.273    6:1|  8.9|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.12  100|  0|  0

130209/0500Z  41  34019KT  26.3F  SNOW    6:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.214    6:1| 10.1|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.33  100|  0|  0

130209/0600Z  42  34019KT  24.0F  SNOW    8:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124    6:1| 11.1|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.46  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0700Z  43  34020KT  21.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081    6:1| 11.9|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.54  100|  0|  0

130209/0800Z  44  34021KT  19.7F  SNOW   17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059    7:1| 12.9|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.60  100|  0|  0

130209/0900Z  45  34021KT  18.8F  SNOW   22:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    7:1| 14.0|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.65  100|  0|  0

130209/1000Z  46  33020KT  18.4F  SNOW   15:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    7:1| 14.6|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.69  100|  0|  0

130209/1100Z  47  33020KT  18.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    7:1| 14.8|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.72  100|  0|  0

130209/1200Z  48  33020KT  18.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018    7:1| 15.0|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.74  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/1300Z  49  33020KT  18.2F  SNOW   19:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    7:1| 15.1|| 0.73|| 0.00|| 3.74  100|  0|  0

 

KISP

 

130208/1200Z  24  08013KT  33.7F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   59|  0| 41

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1300Z  25  08014KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   64|  0| 36

130208/1400Z  26  08015KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07   77|  0| 23

130208/1500Z  27  07016KT  32.8F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.046    0:1|  0.0|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.12   66| 21| 13

130208/1600Z  28  06018KT  32.8F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.14|| 0.00|| 0.093    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.21   27| 46| 27

130208/1700Z  29  06020KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.32    0|  0|100

130208/1800Z  30  06020KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.109    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.43    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1900Z  31  06020KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.57    0|  0|100

130208/2000Z  32  06022KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.71    0|  0|100

130208/2100Z  33  06023KT  33.5F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.92   21| 66| 13

130208/2200Z  34  05026KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.301    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 1.23    0|  0|100

130208/2300Z  35  04029KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.294    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 1.52    0|  0|100

130209/0000Z  36  04030KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.344    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 1.86    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0100Z  37  03030KT  33.2F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.283    0:1|  0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.15    2| 95|  3

130209/0200Z  38  02029KT  32.1F  SNOW   11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128   11:1|  1.4|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.27  100|  0|  0

130209/0300Z  39  01027KT  30.6F  SNOW   10:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139   10:1|  2.8|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.41  100|  0|  0

130209/0400Z  40  36025KT  29.0F  SNOW   10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119   10:1|  3.9|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.53  100|  0|  0

130209/0500Z  41  35025KT  27.0F  SNOW    6:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.109    9:1|  4.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.64  100|  0|  0

130209/0600Z  42  34025KT  24.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.103    9:1|  5.2|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.74  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0700Z  43  34026KT  22.0F  SNOW   10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098    9:1|  6.2|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.84  100|  0|  0

130209/0800Z  44  34026KT  20.6F  SNOW   14:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077    9:1|  7.3|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.92  100|  0|  0

130209/0900Z  45  34026KT  20.0F  SNOW   16:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064   10:1|  8.3|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 2.98  100|  0|  0

130209/1000Z  46  34025KT  20.0F  SNOW   15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048   10:1|  9.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.03  100|  0|  0

130209/1100Z  47  34024KT  19.8F  SNOW   14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   10:1|  9.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.07  100|  0|  0

130209/1200Z  48  33024KT  19.1F  SNOW   17:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035   11:1| 10.2|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.11  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/1300Z  49  33024KT  18.0F  SNOW   27:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033   11:1| 11.1|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.14  100|  0|  0

130209/1400Z  50  32024KT  17.1F  SNOW   20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   11:1| 11.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.17  100|  0|  0

130209/1500Z  51  33026KT  16.8F  SNOW   18:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   11:1| 11.9|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.18  100|  0|  0

130209/1600Z  52  33027KT  16.8F  SNOW   21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   12:1| 12.1|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.19  100|  0|  0

130209/1700Z  53  33026KT  16.6F  SNOW   22:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012   12:1| 12.4|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.20  100|  0|  0

130209/1800Z  54  33027KT  16.8F  SNOW   23:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   12:1| 12.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.21  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/1900Z  55  33026KT  17.3F  SNOW   20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   12:1| 12.8|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 3.22  100|  0|  0

 

KJFK

 

130208/1100Z  23  07011KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   48|  0| 52

130208/1200Z  24  07013KT  34.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03   23|  9| 68

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1300Z  25  07014KT  34.4F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05   15| 23| 63

130208/1400Z  26  07015KT  34.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08   50|  0| 50

130208/1500Z  27  06016KT  33.3F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14   19| 31| 50

130208/1600Z  28  05018KT  33.3F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24    2| 32| 66

130208/1700Z  29  05019KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33    0|  0|100

130208/1800Z  30  05019KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.112    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1900Z  31  05019KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59    0|  0|100

130208/2000Z  32  05019KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.170    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76    0|  0|100

130208/2100Z  33  05021KT  33.5F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.233    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.99   35| 45| 20

130208/2200Z  34  04024KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.299    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.29    0|  0|100

130208/2300Z  35  04027KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.323    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.61    0|  0|100

130209/0000Z  36  03027KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.386    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.00    0|  0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0100Z  37  03026KT  33.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.431    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.43    0|  0|100

130209/0200Z  38  02023KT  33.2F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.363    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.79   64| 19| 17

130209/0300Z  39  36020KT  31.0F  SNOW    7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.180    7:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.97  100|  0|  0

130209/0400Z  40  35020KT  29.2F  SNOW    5:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.211    6:1|  2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.19  100|  0|  0

130209/0500Z  41  35021KT  27.0F  SNOW    5:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178    6:1|  3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.36  100|  0|  0

130209/0600Z  42  34021KT  24.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115    6:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.48  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0700Z  43  34021KT  22.0F  SNOW   10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079    6:1|  4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.56  100|  0|  0

130209/0800Z  44  34022KT  20.0F  SNOW   15:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062    7:1|  5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.62  100|  0|  0

130209/0900Z  45  34022KT  18.9F  SNOW   20:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    8:1|  6.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.67  100|  0|  0

130209/1000Z  46  34022KT  18.4F  SNOW   21:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    8:1|  7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.71  100|  0|  0

130209/1100Z  47  33021KT  17.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    8:1|  8.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.74  100|  0|  0

130209/1200Z  48  33021KT  17.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    8:1|  8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.76  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/1300Z  49  33021KT  17.7F  SNOW   20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1|  8.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.77  100|  0|  0

 

Big winner is KSWF with 39.0". Loser is KFJK with 8.3"

the skew-t's paint a completely different picture...not sure if thats the text of them but ill go with the skew-t's

[bluewave]

and that is what I think is the best call at this point. would be an MECS for all

 

I have to really give credit to the modeling crew at ECMWF. The Euro was all over the stronger

southern stream development and phase potential while the other models were really blah.

[IsentropicLift]

Red Flag is the usually east biased Nogaps is closer than the gfs?

I'm not sure if I would buy into its bias right now. As of yesterday it wasn't even showing a phase.

[NorthShoreWx]

I didn't see mentioned that the 12z NAM keeps temps in the teens all day on Saturday.

 

On the obs side, last night was a few degrees warmer than forecasted, but the current dewpoints are very low.

[IsentropicLift]

the skew-t's paint a completely different picture...not sure if thats the text of them but ill go with the skew-t's

It's just fun to look at without taking too seriously.

[snywx]

. Exactly, it's the laws of physics, when you have intense lifting in the deform band, there has to be subsidence/sinking around it, equal and opposite reaction. I think there will be a real sharp cutoff west/northwest of NYC

 

Relax dude.. Every single one of your post has been about this supposed cut off. Yes there will be a cutoff but it won't be as drastic as Boxing Day. I had 12" while 10 miles to my east had 26-28". This time the cutoff will be in E PA. Precip will be also oriented in a SW- NE fashion as well.

[Metsfan]

the skew-t's paint a completely different picture...not sure if thats the text of them but ill go with the skew-t's

For kjfk at max temp I could find was 34 F. Problem is the 850-900 layer is warm, so it could be in the form of sleet/snow even a little bit of rain.

[Kaner587]

I have to really give credit to the modeling crew at ECMWF. The Euro was all over the stronger

southern stream development and phase potential while the other models were really blah.

exactly...and that compromise fwiw would look very similar to the 00z euro. not so bad GFS/NAM/EURO blend

[goombatommy]

Relax dude.. Every single one of your post has been about this supposed cut off. Yes there will be a cutoff but it won't be as drastic as Boxing Day. I had 12" while 10 miles to my east had 26-28". This time the cutoff will be in E PA. Precip will be also oriented in a SW- NE fashion as well.

 

In addition if anyone needs to worry about the sharp cut-off it would be us in ABE. .

[snywx]

In addition if anyone needs to worry about the sharp cut-off it would be us in ABE. .

 

I know your pain bro lol.. Trust me

 

The beautiful thing about this setup is you really don't know where these bands are gonna set up.  There always tends to be a secondary max somewhere on the western flank of the storm.

[LehighValleyDad]

In addition if anyone needs to worry about the sharp cut-off it would be us in ABE. .

Thanks for the reminder ... very worried about this.   We need an early phase and perhaps another tick west.

[goombatommy]

I know your pain bro lol.. Trust me

 

The beautiful thing about this setup is you really don't know where these bands are gonna set up.  There always tends to be a secondary max somewhere on the western flank of the storm.

 Yea, I hear ya. Honestly though if we wind up with 4 - 6" back here I'm definitely OK with that. Better than those dreaded clippers. 

[Kaner587]

surprised no one has mentioned this yet. another weekend rule in effect here

[bluewave]

exactly...and that compromise fwiw would look very similar to the 00z euro. not so bad GFS/NAM/EURO blend

 

Yeah, the GFS/NAM compromise is the euro solution from last night. It will be interesting to see the 12z run today.

Maybe a stronger southern development pumps the ridge to the east a tad more forcing a track closer to the

coast and earlier phase. I would be great  see this bombing even a little more moving over KHAT.

[Snowlover11]

surprised no one has mentioned this yet. another weekend rule in effect here

this. Cant wait to travel to work friday night, its gunna be a nightmare

[Zelocita Weather]

GGEM simialr to RGEM from NE thread...track over the B/M

[Kaner587]

Yeah, the GFS/NAM compromise is the euro solution from last night. It will be interesting to see the 12z run today.

Maybe a stronger southern development pumps the ridge to the east a tad more forcing a track closer to the

coast and earlier phase. I would be great  see this bombing even a little more moving over KHAT.

yup...would help our thermal profiles too. Not that we need help during the ccb but with with initial stuff that falls, which would still probably be around 0.5-0.75in.