JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Im going with the euro. 18+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:14 PM, WintersGrasp said: I'm expecting a trend back east on the 00z NAM close to where the GFS is and the GFS to hold serve but up amounts a bit....all in all.....around a foot for us I'm loving it Actually, the NAM will slightly decrease the amounts, but the GFS will increase the snowfall amounts by 00Z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Key here is the duration....storms always start off as "long duration" but always turn into "quick movers"....this one is truly a long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:12 PM, IntenseBlizzard2013 said: Or SW CT. that is what I meant by S CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:17 PM, ace0927 said: that is what I meant by S CT Okay, got ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:49 PM, winterwarlock said: interesting so now I know why Mt Holly is hedging with the 6-10 forecast. They seem to be mainly basing their forecast on the GFS. I think a blend of the NAM and GFS is a better way to go but we'll see what the 00z models have to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 with the talk here, you would think the gfs solution was bad for nyc qpf looks to me to be almost 1.5, and 850s are ok. and i am not very concerned with the surface temps on gfs, i have seen them be too high during these storms so many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:17 PM, ace0927 said: that is what I meant by S CT Or SSW Ct.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:17 PM, IntenseBlizzard2013 said: Actually, the NAM will slightly decrease the amounts, but the GFS will increase the snowfall amounts by 00Z tonight. Forecasting what a forecast model forecasts. Oh god, didn't know we were that advanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 these are the times I hate myself for moving to NC....wish you weenies all the best back home, may your bickering and pessimism throughout the past winter and a half be shattered when the flakes fly tomorrow. GL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:20 PM, RutgersWx92 said: They seem to be mainly basing their forecast on the GFS. I think a blend of the NAM and GFS is a better way to go but we'll see what the 00z models have to say... That's why I'm seeing the GFS and NAM converging on 14-18" of snow with localized amounts up to 2' to the north of I-87 and the southern half of NYC of NYC will have 10-14" of snow with localized amounts up to 18" of snow for Eastern NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:21 PM, TWCCraig said: Forecasting what a forecast model forecasts. Oh god, didn't know we were that advanced.I'm taking a guess based on past trends and outputs of the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The Euro has been the leader and you can see the GFS coming into line little by little. The GFS is in full agreement with 3+ inch qpf totals under the best banding. 6z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think this is going to be a top 5 all time storm with 2-3 foot totals across from NE NJ heading NE. A la' Blizzard of 96' ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looking nice! The GFS has tremendous precip just offshore NJ and south of LI. Tht signal is there even on the gfs just a few miles east... Blend the ecm...nam...gfs we're looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:16 PM, TWCCraig said: Sandy? Jenkins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:26 PM, Blizzardo said: I think this is going to be a top 5 all time storm with 2-3 foot totals across from NE NJ heading NE. A la' Blizzard of 96' ! Easy pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:28 PM, SACRUS said: Looking nice! The GFS has tremendous precip just offshore NJ and south of LI. Tht signal is there even on the gfs just a few miles east... Blend the ecm...nam...gfs we're looking good I think TWC said that those places in Georgia ans SC were going to get 5-7 inches of rain. And thats coming our way in the form of something white.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hey everyone.... This will be historic; on the scale of 1996-2010; 20-30+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:32 PM, Chris L said: Hey everyone.... This will be historic; on the scale of 1996-2010; 20-30+. Didn't I just say that?? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:26 PM, Blizzardo said: I think this is going to be a top 5 all time storm with 2-3 foot totals across from NE NJ heading NE. A la' Blizzard of 96' ! Slow down there buddy. I think that 1-2' is a more reasonable forecast from NE NJ/NYC to SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is it possible that the jackpot location is going to be further south than say E MA?? reading the posts it seems like the heaviest QPF has been trending southwards today?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 C LI recap: 18z GFS: 10-18"18z NAM: 24-30"12z Euro: 24+"12z NNM: 24-30"15z SREF Mean: 15-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Some more nowcasting... Really liking our SW in the central US as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nick Gregory said Thundersnow is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just realized how many views this thread got 62,000 wow although half of those are from us that is till a large number. Got gas for the snow blower, but I loathe that i have school tomorrow. I honestly think Bloomberg is making another large mistake and he needs new advisers because whoever is feeding him 4-6 is absolutely nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:34 PM, patrick05 said: Is it possible that the jackpot location is going to be further south than say E MA?? reading the posts it seems like the heaviest QPF has been trending southwards today?? i think the jackpot is an upton location not taunton......interesting bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 10:42 PM, StatenWx said: I just realized how many views this thread got 62,000 wow although half of those are from us that is till a large number. Got gas for the snow blower, but I loathe that i have school tomorrow. I honestly think Bloomberg is making another large mistake and he needs new advisers because whoever is feeding him 4-6 is absolutely nuts. Bloomberg is a bonehead. From the Blizzardgate of 2010 to mishandling Occupy Wall Street to downplaying Sandy, then trying to hold a marathon just 5 days after Sandy, now downplaying this when even the GFS suggests more than 4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z gfs jokes aside. it really clobbers Central to eastern Long island 2+ qpf , it has high qpf just off jersey shore, but then on a ENE line the qpf sort of drops off a bit before picking up again in G.O.M (maine) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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