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Forecast Model Information

SACRUS

By SACRUS,
in New York City Metro

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IrishRob17
IrishRob17

Some basic weenie sites so everyone doesn't have to ask "What does the GFS show?" http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ https://weathe

BxEngine
BxEngine

OMG

Juliancolton
Juliancolton

Depends where you are in Arizona. There's a reservation that doesn't observe DST, within the Navajo nation that does, within the state that doesn't... https://www.cntraveler.com/stories/2012-11-12/day

  • 8 months later...
Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
On 2/6/2013 at 9:00 PM, SACRUS said:

I know there have been better more detailed threads on this but a helpful reference for the next 36 hours.

 

time model starts to run

 

GFS: 10:30; 4:30 (AM/PM)

GEFS (Eneembles):   12:00, 6:00 (AM/PM)

NAM: 9:00, 3:00  (AM/PM

SREF:  8:20, 2:20 (AM/PM)

RGEM: 10:20, 4:00 (AM/PM)

GGEM (CMC):  11:00 (AM/PM

UKMET:  10:40 (AM/PM)

ECMWF (Euro/ECM):  12:45 (AM/PM)

ECM ensembles:  3:00 (AM/PM)

 

 

additional higher res model

 

MM5

AWR

 

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

If I’m in Arizona today what time does the HRRR come out?

Depends where you are in Arizona. There's a reservation that doesn't observe DST, within the Navajo nation that does, within the state that doesn't... https://www.cntraveler.com/stories/2012-11-12/daylight-saving-donut-arizona-ken-jennings-maphead

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted

I'm just going to put this here since there's no other relevant thread for it- who is the fool that decided that DST should be moved from late April- late Oct to weird second week of March to early November?  It must have been made for the South because no way any one is planting anything here in March.  late April-late Oct was a perfect fit for us because it was a symmetric six months and fit in perfectly with our snow season and our planting season.  Instead we now have to deal with DST for the majority of March and it even interferes with the NYC marathon which is run the Sunday of the time change in early November.

Also, it saves NOTHING, since most of us get up at like 5-6 am to get ready for school or work and the sun doesn't come up until after 7 am- IN MARCH!  So thank you to the lame brains that decided that DST should be moved into March.  We now wake up in total darkness and waste electricity for 2 hours in the "morning" instead of wasting it for 2 hours in the "evening"- great job by our stupid politicians, as usual.

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Edubbs83

Edubbs83

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Paragon said:

I'm just going to put this here since there's no other relevant thread for it- who is the fool that decided that DST should be moved from late April- late Oct to weird second week of March to early November?  It must have been made for the South because no way any one is planting anything here in March.  late April-late Oct was a perfect fit for us because it was a symmetric six months and fit in perfectly with our snow season and our planting season.  Instead we now have to deal with DST for the majority of March and it even interferes with the NYC marathon which is run the Sunday of the time change in early November.

Also, it saves NOTHING, since most of us get up at like 5-6 am to get ready for school or work and the sun doesn't come up until after 7 am- IN MARCH!  So thank you to the lame brains that decided that DST should be moved into March.  We now wake up in total darkness and waste electricity for 2 hours in the "morning" instead of wasting it for 2 hours in the "evening"- great job by our stupid politicians, as usual.

Bush administration signed in 2005. Energy policy act of 2005. 

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
On 2/6/2013 at 9:00 PM, SACRUS said:

I know there have been better more detailed threads on this but a helpful reference for the next 36 hours.

 

time model starts to run

 

GFS: 10:30; 4:30 (AM/PM)

GEFS (Eneembles):   12:00, 6:00 (AM/PM)

NAM: 9:00, 3:00  (AM/PM

SREF:  8:20, 2:20 (AM/PM)

RGEM: 10:20, 4:00 (AM/PM)

GGEM (CMC):  11:00 (AM/PM

UKMET:  10:40 (AM/PM)

ECMWF (Euro/ECM):  12:45 (AM/PM)

ECM ensembles:  3:00 (AM/PM)

 

 

additional higher res model

 

MM5

AWR

 

A 7 year, 10 month bump.

 

When was the MM5 retired?  2015?

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
Posted

Good Morning--- wasn't sure where to place this... I'd like a little immediate visibility for this written conversation with the ECMWF yesterday - January 20, 2021 - and then you take and run with it as you wish---just strongly recommend that we are are realistic about limitations of snowfall-snow depth on the EC model.  This speaks only of the ECMWF and EPS.  As some of us know there has been discussion about various vendor depictions of snowfall.  

My recommendation is to take the lower value of EC snowfall.  Snow depth on the EC is a good lower end check and may in some ways if initing at zero depth, represents a total positive snow depth change as seen via tropical tidbits, which I like to use as a baseline for accumulations.  However, I'm still unsure how sleet is treated in some of the vendor depictions but if it's 10 to 1...its wrong, probably ~70% inflated. 

Here is how the ECMWF group handles snow/rain/ice pellets (PL or sleet in the USA-) Note the UK calls a rain-snow mix as sleet, a different approach there.  I'll place this in the Model Thread as well so it's there as a reference for the future. 

 

Ice pellets are not stored as such in the model but reach the ground as a mixture of rain and snow, and it is the proportions of those that are present, and the type of surface onto which the ice pellets are falling, that will determine how the accumulation on the ground works. Similarly if there is already snow on the surface, then it depends on how deep the snow there is modelled to be, what it's density is, and what the air and snow temperatures are. In short there is a lot of scope for forecast snow depth on the ground to go wrong, and this is particularly true if you have ice pellets or (UK style) sleet falling, or if there is already a lot of snow on the ground. And known (extraneous) systematic errors in the handling of snow depth on the ground, relating mainly to there being only 1 snow layer currently in the IFS, do not help at all. So unfortunately there really is no rule of thumb (like 10:1), and this evidently stems from many issues. Ordinarily ice pellets would, I think, change snow depth on the ground via a ratio that is rather less than 10:1, but that is about all I can say.

The deterministic ECMWF model (HRES) and the ensemble (ENS) both behave as described above.

So I doubt this is the answer you were hoping for, but anyway please feel free to read further on such topics in either the Forecast User Guide (e.g. here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/9.7+Precipitation+Types - second sub-section in particular), or in our listing of known model issues (here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Known+IFS+forecasting+issues)

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 1/21/2021 at 7:37 AM, wdrag said:

Good Morning--- wasn't sure where to place this... I'd like a little immediate visibility for this written conversation with the ECMWF yesterday - January 20, 2021 - and then you take and run with it as you wish---just strongly recommend that we are are realistic about limitations of snowfall-snow depth on the EC model.  This speaks only of the ECMWF and EPS.  As some of us know there has been discussion about various vendor depictions of snowfall.  

My recommendation is to take the lower value of EC snowfall.  Snow depth on the EC is a good lower end check and may in some ways if initing at zero depth, represents a total positive snow depth change as seen via tropical tidbits, which I like to use as a baseline for accumulations.  However, I'm still unsure how sleet is treated in some of the vendor depictions but if it's 10 to 1...its wrong, probably ~70% inflated. 

Here is how the ECMWF group handles snow/rain/ice pellets (PL or sleet in the USA-) Note the UK calls a rain-snow mix as sleet, a different approach there.  I'll place this in the Model Thread as well so it's there as a reference for the future. 

 

 

Ice pellets are not stored as such in the model but reach the ground as a mixture of rain and snow, and it is the proportions of those that are present, and the type of surface onto which the ice pellets are falling, that will determine how the accumulation on the ground works. Similarly if there is already snow on the surface, then it depends on how deep the snow there is modelled to be, what it's density is, and what the air and snow temperatures are. In short there is a lot of scope for forecast snow depth on the ground to go wrong, and this is particularly true if you have ice pellets or (UK style) sleet falling, or if there is already a lot of snow on the ground. And known (extraneous) systematic errors in the handling of snow depth on the ground, relating mainly to there being only 1 snow layer currently in the IFS, do not help at all. So unfortunately there really is no rule of thumb (like 10:1), and this evidently stems from many issues. Ordinarily ice pellets would, I think, change snow depth on the ground via a ratio that is rather less than 10:1, but that is about all I can say.

The deterministic ECMWF model (HRES) and the ensemble (ENS) both behave as described above.

So I doubt this is the answer you were hoping for, but anyway please feel free to read further on such topics in either the Forecast User Guide (e.g. here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/9.7+Precipitation+Types - second sub-section in particular), or in our listing of known model issues (here: https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Known+IFS+forecasting+issues)

Hey Walt if you have any suggestions for any software that does this please let me know

Hey....a lot of the software I use for weather was based on Flash and since that's gone now I have to look elsewhere.  Does anyone know of any desktop software that allows me to present current conditions (from airports, both in the US and international, as well as research stations in Antarctica like Vostok and in Greenland like Summit Camp) in tabular format?  It should allow usage of four letter airport codes for both US and international airports and for research stations and others I could search by WMO code or by name.  Is there anything out there like that?  I'd like an installable program that does it rather than having to view the information on a site and I'd like to be able to view up to 50 locations simultaneously and for it to automatically update the data at least once an hour.

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hey Walt if you have any suggestions for any software that does this please let me know

Hey....a lot of the software I use for weather was based on Flash and since that's gone now I have to look elsewhere.  Does anyone know of any desktop software that allows me to present current conditions (from airports, both in the US and international, as well as research stations in Antarctica like Vostok and in Greenland like Summit Camp) in tabular format?  It should allow usage of four letter airport codes for both US and international airports and for research stations and others I could search by WMO code or by name.  Is there anything out there like that?  I'd like an installable program that does it rather than having to view the information on a site and I'd like to be able to view up to 50 locations simultaneously and for it to automatically update the data at least once an hour.

Sorry... you're way ahead of me on programming and I cannot help.  You might want to write NWS EMC-NCEP.  Someone there might be able to assist. 

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