dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is it me or did the 0z NAM increase QPF regino wide? Big increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What are the odds off mixing occuring along the coast on the North Shore of Boston? I don't think that's an issue and certainly the nam doesn't show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM kicks it out to sea, then changes it's mind and backs it into the cape. Very similar to the November Noreaster. Doesn't look like a hook and latter pattern though so the backing would probably be less extreme. Hopefully it never gets that far east in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What are the odds off mixing occuring along the coast on the North Shore of Boston? Pretty remote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Big increase Thought so. That is pretty eye opening b/c I thought at this stage we would perhaps start seeing some back off. Have to wait for the GFS/Euro to really determine this but if neither model back off we can probably expect at least a solid 60-70% of these values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Regarding the NAM torching CT...it hasn't exactly been stellar this year resolving thermal profiles. Not gonna worry too much about that unless the GFS/Euro come in warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 0z NAM looks like a total joke and I'm surprised there's this much discussion of it. No way I go over to plain rain for hours like the NAM shows, and it's almost totally missing the southern stream energy which is indeed very potent on WV/radar/etc. I agree that it's a later phase like the Euro, but this is also a poor use of this model as it's not a model for figuring out complex synoptic evolution of systems with phasing, closed off mid-levels, etc. The ECM and GFS handle these broader features much better. I also think this is the type of storm where SE CT does well..I would personally think the jackpot amounts may run from HVN to IJD, but I wouldn't cut out GON. Areas just inland like Old Lyme could do really nicely in this set-up, maybe more than here. Old Lyme is on the coast. Nice spot if you like sleet and rain while everyone else gets pounded with snow LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pinch me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This would be more exciting if the NAM wasn't an atrocious model....but fun to see that type of QPF being spit out, lol. lol... I would pay for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pinch me. Winter Storm Bryce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NCEP SREF plume for Total-SNO at FIT from 20130206/21 UTC run FIT = 25.7" ORH = 22.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 3hr snowfall totals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 White is 48-60" yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pinch me. The clown maps will be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Feb '69 was a retro-job...def different setup than this. True,.. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol 0z nam is a major improvement for everyone it's finally catching on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 21z Sref plume mean is 30.59" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Old Lyme is on the coast. Nice spot if you like sleet and rain while everyone else gets pounded with snow LOL. In all fairness...I think sometimes people overestimate how much influence the sound has more than 1-2 miles inland. I'm 3-4 miles inland...and we often can do surprisingly well even when the NWS/local stations have us in the coastal screw zone. The northern portions of the shoreline town cans sometimes be like night/day compared to immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Winter Storm Bryce? He's excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 10:1 WeatherBell shows northern RI at 35-40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM actually closes off all the way up to 250mb lol. Would that imply we see this retrograde for a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 So we cut the totals by 1/3rd on the nam............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 21z SREFs have come back to reality after the 15z crazy run. Here's ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 10:1 WeatherBell shows northern RI at 35-40". AHHHHHH don't do this to me! Your making me want to take the train back home tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 21z SREFs have come back to reality after the 15z crazy run. Here's ORH. Where's the scale on the y-axis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Even deducting the normal 30% from the NAM is resulting in obscene QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Where's the scale on the y-axis? Oops! Increments of 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 weather porn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Checking in from the Subtropics. Enjoy your blizzard guys. Someone in your region should get 40''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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