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Feb 8th-9th Potential Blizzard


dryslot

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Coming from the dude that said 8-12 seemed likely yesterday and then bit on the 00z GFS last nite lol..

 

I didn't say it was likely and you know that. I said it was certainly possible that this could turn into an 8-12 kind of deal but was forecasting 12+. Stop trolling. 

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they'll have an inch OTG by 7:o0am

It's not 7:00 AM that i'm worried about, it's 12 when the early dismissal happens, there should be 2-4" by then and snowing moderatley.

 

They did early dismissal for the 1/2 that we got a week from last monday, and their not going to close for this? seems silly, as I said above, a snow day should not be decided based on how many days already have been used.

 

-skisheep

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Not sure where you're getting those numbers. The GFS at BDL looks solidly over 1" from the 18z run. 

Ryan, I was looking at Cobb data. Not sure how accurate they are.

 

StnID: kbdl    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%============================================================================================================================130207/2100Z   3  11005KT  25.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0130208/0000Z   6  09007KT  18.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0130208/0300Z   9  08007KT  15.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0130208/0600Z  12  07006KT  15.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/0900Z  15  06008KT  17.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0130208/1200Z  18  06010KT  23.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   10:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0130208/1500Z  21  07017KT  30.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    8:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0130208/1800Z  24  07018KT  32.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    8:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10   84|  0| 16----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/2100Z  27  05019KT  31.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117    7:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22  100|  0|  0130209/0000Z  30  04022KT  29.4F  SNOW    8:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148    8:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0130209/0300Z  33  02025KT  24.5F  SNOW   14:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138   10:1|  4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50  100|  0|  0130209/0600Z  36  02023KT  16.4F  SNOW   20:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.199   13:1|  8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0900Z  39  35017KT  20.2F  SNOW   16:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124   13:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0130209/1200Z  42  32015KT  22.4F  SNOW   21:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046   14:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87  100|  0|  0130209/1500Z  45  33016KT  20.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   14:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.87    0|  0|  0130209/1800Z  48  33019KT  21.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   14:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 
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Yeah nothing really shows that. In most of the state early dismissals are between 12 and 2... so buses aren't done until 230pm or so. That's cutting it pretty close. 

 

I respect your opinion even though we sometimes disagree...serious question:

 

If NYC does not cancel school, should I go to work tomorrow? I work in Brooklyn and finish school at 2:20. It takes me a bit under an hour to drive home, so I would be off the roads by about 3:30 or so. Can I fit this in without it being dangerous?

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18z BTV  WRF loves the CT Valley/Berks/W CT for a deform band...been hitting that all day.

 

18z Hi-Res NAM just crushes you at home in Litchfield County.  Has that deformation band that just rots there and lifts up into ME. 

 

What's interesting on these models is that the deform band is forming but it isn't curling eastward, but transitioning northeast into NH/ME.  Its interesting because east of that band, the models are sort of ending the heaviest snows until you get back towards the immediate coast. 

 

But man, get into this puppy and its all over.  This band is going to be ripping. 

 

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I respect your opinion even though we sometimes disagree...serious question:

 

If NYC does not cancel school, should I go to work tomorrow? I work in Brooklyn and finish school at 2:20. It takes me a bit under an hour to drive home, so I would be off the roads by about 3:30 or so. Can I fit this in without it being dangerous?

 

Can you take mass transit? 

 

I don't think it will be dangerous but the roads might be totally jammed with people leaving early and having to deal with developing S+.

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Can you take mass transit? 

 

I don't think it will be dangerous but the roads might be totally jammed with people leaving early and having to deal with developing S+.

 

I really can't...I work in a part of Brooklyn that takes forever to get too (hours) without a car, which takes about 45 minutes. What should I do?

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18z BTV MESO 4km

 

click total precip ....HELLO!   more robust than 12z . 

 

shows C conn and W central mass (lesser) areas pretty well /consistently

 

with great banding signature in WSNE from MRG and Conway/ashfield MA  S on a line to Hartford Center down to clinton/killingworth WEST toward stamford then back North thru Bethel , Goshen, and up to Peru MA . enahancement goes up into woodford vt area actually just less intense.

 

Then the big qpf bomb from W RI up thru 495 over to lawrence /gloucster And all areas S And east over 2.5 qpf  w 3 in BOS and 4 in middleboro over to the cape). another mini jackpot type ares in Monads, nh as well/ and can't forget the continuation of that deform band showing up from MHT on a line NNE to madison,nh (king pine ski) into maine

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18z Hi-Res NAM just crushes you at home in Litchfield County.  Has that deformation band that just rots there and lifts up into ME. 

 

What's interesting on these models is that the deform band is forming but it isn't curling eastward, but transitioning northeast into NH/ME.  Its interesting because east of that band, the models are sort of ending the heaviest snows until you get back towards the immediate coast. 

 

But man, get into this puppy and its all over.  This band is going to be ripping. 

 

attachicon.gifUntitled.jpg

If one of those bands backed up 10-15 miles my totals would triple.

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