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Feb 8th-9th Potential Blizzard


dryslot

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I think those GFS tracks are fairly unlikely. I would trust most of the other guidance (particularly the Euro) to handle this almost mesoscale phase more correctly than the GFS. But the GFS does show that its not a total slam dunk to get a uber wrapped up west solution.

 

Yeah it's certainly not the most likely scenario but I don't think it can be tossed. It's certainly possible it's a more pedestrian 1"-2" liquid event as opposed to 2"+ widespread.

 

FWIW we split the difference and when with a Euro/GFS blend. 

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Before everyone tosses the GFS, it's important to remember that it too has been consistent in a storm with less QPF. While I don't think it will verify, it's important to keep it on the table as just another potential solution. Odds of it verifying I think are 10-15%, in which case everyone still sees a foot, so it's not a bad situation. Do I think it's likely, no, possible, yes.

 

-skisheep

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BTV WRF almost has a Boxing Day look with a heavy slug of precip near the coast, then a deformation band from hell coupled with strong easterly upslope winds into the east slopes of the Berkshires up towards Dendrites area.  We've seen that show before plenty of times lately, lol.

 

Don't you guys always joke that a certain mountain top in CT gets 14 inches during all the big storms? BTV WRF must've factored that in, too.

 

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