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Feb 8th-9th Potential Blizzard


dryslot

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Further evidence of the banding potential for this storm. Pay attention to the orientation of the yellow dashed lines, that's deformation at 700 mb. Just to the cold side of that maximum, within the area of strongest frontogenesis will be the most favorable area for a strong deformation band. This just rots over this area for 12 hours or so.

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attachicon.gifECMWF1.jpg

 

Further evidence of the banding potential for this storm. Pay attention to the orientation of the yellow dashed lines, that's deformation at 700 mb. Just to the cold side of that maximum, within the area of strongest frontogenesis will be the most favorable area for a strong deformation band. This just rots over this area for 12 hours or so.

 

Looks good for this area I think but gosh that's a lava lamp short of an acid trip. 

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I don't think we can toss the GFS at all. With those mid level low tracks that's the type of precip you'd expect to see.

 

I think those GFS tracks are fairly unlikely. I would trust most of the other guidance (particularly the Euro) to handle this almost mesoscale phase more correctly than the GFS. But the GFS does show that its not a total slam dunk to get a uber wrapped up west solution.

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