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Feb 8th-9th Potential Blizzard


dryslot

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Yeah winds should be north for the bulk of the storm here so we'll be OK. Up north in Mass it will be a bit different I'm sure.

 

The storms that stall to our south are when I worry about downsloping.

 

We're more susceptible to it than you, but with such strong hp to the north and even west I am less worried than usual.  Agree that the vertically stacked lows off LI seem to be the worst.  Maybe a 30% reduction instead of a 50-75% reduction?

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Upton for me, going 13-21" !!! (And according to the NAM and to an extent the EURO their being conservative, but I guess they want to see the GFS spit out the biblical(2"+) numbers before they go all out, it's a good baseline for now)

 

Tonight:

A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 25. East wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

  • Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
  • Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Blustery, with a north wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.
  • Saturday Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/ptot51.html

 

more signs of banding for WSNE

 

i'm just posting that for those in W SNE who maybe concerned wrt gfs precip totals or something.

 

I remember scooter yesterday said there WILL BE banding in those areas.  And meso models are pretty much lined up and on board. 2-3 qpf wma to w ct" screw zone w tolland county up thru parts of ct river valley in mass" (1-1.5 qpf)  and then everyone east of that has 2 plus qpf into the monads and foothills nw of portland with cape 3+

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What exactly is frontogensis?  

 

Basically frontogenesis is an area where the horizontal temperature gradient is increasing with respect to time to create fronts. Converging winds will act to bring isotherms closer together. Frontolysis is the opposite.

 

In response to frontogenesis, you get a circulation in the atmosphere that results in rising air on the warm side of the frontogenesis zone and sinking air on the cold side of it. The rising air in association with mid-level frontogenesis can result in an area of enhanced precipitation.

 

Wikipedia has a more detailed description: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontogenesis

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Basically frontogenesis is an area where the horizontal temperature gradient is increasing with respect to time to create fronts. Converging winds will act to bring isotherms closer together. Frontolysis is the opposite.

 

In response to frontogenesis, you get a circulation in the atmosphere that results in rising air on the warm side of the frontogenesis zone and sinking air on the cold side of it. The rising air in association with mid-level frontogenesis can result in an area of enhanced precipitation.

 

Wikipedia has a more detailed description: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontogenesis

Is subsidence on the side with the cold sinking air?

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