wxmanmitch Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The second is moist symmetric instability layer depth at 36 hours. This can be used to diagnose areas of conditional symmetric instability and mesoscale snow banding along with frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah winds should be north for the bulk of the storm here so we'll be OK. Up north in Mass it will be a bit different I'm sure. The storms that stall to our south are when I worry about downsloping. We're more susceptible to it than you, but with such strong hp to the north and even west I am less worried than usual. Agree that the vertically stacked lows off LI seem to be the worst. Maybe a 30% reduction instead of a 50-75% reduction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The second is moist symmetric instability layer depth at 36 hours. This can be used to diagnose areas of conditional symmetric instability and mesoscale snow banding along with frontogenesis. What exactly is frontogensis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Will be shocked if Upton doesnt go Blizz warning for most of their cov'g areaBlizzard warning NYC !10-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Upton for me, going 13-21" !!! (And according to the NAM and to an extent the EURO their being conservative, but I guess they want to see the GFS spit out the biblical(2"+) numbers before they go all out, it's a good baseline for now) Tonight: A chance of snow, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 25. East wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Blustery, with a north wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Saturday Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 28. Blustery, with a northwest wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Finally I have dendritic growth zone depth at hour 36: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Same set of plots at hour 39: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/ptot51.html more signs of banding for WSNE i'm just posting that for those in W SNE who maybe concerned wrt gfs precip totals or something. I remember scooter yesterday said there WILL BE banding in those areas. And meso models are pretty much lined up and on board. 2-3 qpf wma to w ct" screw zone w tolland county up thru parts of ct river valley in mass" (1-1.5 qpf) and then everyone east of that has 2 plus qpf into the monads and foothills nw of portland with cape 3+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Everyone be careful. Winter storm Nemo is only 24 hours away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 wowl everyone's phones just went off.. warnings.. blizzards etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BOX just issued a Blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nice charts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Same set of plots at hour 42 (note the increased CSI layer depth where the meso band is): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And so it begins.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just got my first ever weather emergency posting on my phone. So yeah, that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Holy crap first for me Cras message on my phone, blizzard warning. Was loud and the ultimate cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Everyone's phones just went off at the bar. Emergency alert. Never seen that before. This is the real deal. To keep it on topic. The models are pure porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Holy crap first for me Cras message on my phone, blizzard warning. Was loud and the ultimate cool My audio was off. It just overrode it and buzzed anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sweet blizzard warning........15-25 in the p and c Party time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So do you go with 2-3 feet or 3- -4 feet is the question I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Haven't looked at the newest models, still a good chance of 2ft in BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What exactly is frontogensis? Basically frontogenesis is an area where the horizontal temperature gradient is increasing with respect to time to create fronts. Converging winds will act to bring isotherms closer together. Frontolysis is the opposite. In response to frontogenesis, you get a circulation in the atmosphere that results in rising air on the warm side of the frontogenesis zone and sinking air on the cold side of it. The rising air in association with mid-level frontogenesis can result in an area of enhanced precipitation. Wikipedia has a more detailed description: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tau tons new map give the whole CT river valley the middle finger of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hurricane Force Wind Warnings flying as well...........Happy Birthday Sultginxy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 New map out from BOX along with the Blizzard Warning. Can't save and link at work, but most everyone inside 495/395 except immediate coast is >24" of snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 CT shadowing IMO may be overdone..it's the mesoscale screw zones like Ryan said...and that will not be able to be nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RGEM just completely weenied out at 18z. Looks like near 3" of QPF for eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Basically frontogenesis is an area where the horizontal temperature gradient is increasing with respect to time to create fronts. Converging winds will act to bring isotherms closer together. Frontolysis is the opposite. In response to frontogenesis, you get a circulation in the atmosphere that results in rising air on the warm side of the frontogenesis zone and sinking air on the cold side of it. The rising air in association with mid-level frontogenesis can result in an area of enhanced precipitation. Wikipedia has a more detailed description: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontogenesis Is subsidence on the side with the cold sinking air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Great BOX disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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