trat Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 3ft in and around rt 128 ......wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Probably going to have to keep an eye on that. Short range models are sniffing out that feature really well I'm not really concerned about it here. I'd be more concerned about subsidence between mesoscale bands... but that's going to be next to impossible to pin down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Man that is just going to be one heavy wall of snow across SNE on Friday night. You should come down for some real powder skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I've already done so for my destination All nighter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Keep in mind too that not only does the NAM seem a shade warm...its still probably a bit too amped even though it trended east. Its still more amped than the SREFs. Share the wealth man. We're suffering this winter out here in ENY, WNE too I agree that the NAM probably drives the SLP too far NW (like a few of the SREF members). But the Euro starts out pretty similar along the mid-Atl coast before pulling more NE towards the benchmark. With a miller B setup of this type, I would favor the benchmark track over something more closely tucked. But there will likely be a secondary max on the NW flank with enhancement from the northern stream trof. I just don't think it will be as far NW or as wet as the last two NAM runs. Either way, the southeastern 5/6ths of SNE looks to be crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM's Sim Radar has that death band way too far NW. It Would be Another Western SNE special. This is Our Storm. Wow! That looks like 2/23/09 on steroids. That one dumped 9" in 2:45 and 24.5" overall. Would be very nice if the death band were that far NW, but I think the coastal areas or immediately inland have a better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 not related to the 18z nam run: euro valid 12z sat. 925mb. 85 knots. sick. nice to see the nam gradually shifting east. the 12z run made me want to vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Any Coastal Front with this system? I've tried to keep up with the posts but don't remember reading anything about a Coastal Front... FWIW - My wind has been steady out of the S and SE for the past 3 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 CT Valley shadow on the NAM lol What are your thoughts on jackpot for Ct, Ne or Nw, or does it depend where the banding sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 3"near Bob and up close to BOS. For those out west with less QPF, banding from heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 lol wow. Banding heaven. for us? say more. talk dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Howdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not really concerned about it here. I'd be more concerned about subsidence between mesoscale bands... but that's going to be next to impossible to pin down. Yeah...there will prob be some shadowing, esp north into the CEF area, but its a relative min and not a total stinkbomb like Boxing day or something. The amount of moisture is just staggering so I don't think anyone needs to worry too much. Heck, they might overcome any shadowing anyway if they get stuck under mid-level deformation. Winds should also go north by maybe 09z during the storm which shuts off any real downsloping component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Albany is the first to go blizzard warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 you want more signs of banding in W SNE. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ go to total precip. W MA (esp berks) down thru all of W CT 2.5 to 3.5 qpf (N to S) and 2.5+ 128 area including area S down to E RI . qpf max of 4-5 in brockton to all of plymouth counties. still has 2.0 for ORH and central CT valley shows signs of screw job as well as CON-MHT area in snh the less detailed 12km run show'd significantly less precip for W SNE and and areas outside SE Mass /capecod /S ri / but i think 4km is where banding would show up anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 With every run today, I see it and say weenie solution, this is the best run ever! Than the next model comes out and I do it all over again. Pretty crazy that I could be seeing and most likely will see 18-24"+ from a storm that a few days ago was a cold rain for me... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 someone please be straight with me...i have seen that finger of shadowing on so many models..i have lived the dissapointment so many times..what do you think realistically i can expect here.. i realize there could be meso banding with high ratios if i get lucky but assuming 10 or 12 to 1 ratios, what is the thinking for the lower ct valley?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah...there will prob be some shadowing, esp north into the CEF area, but its a relative min and not a total stinkbomb like Boxing day or something. The amount of moisture is just staggering so I don't think anyone needs to worry too much. Heck, they might overcome any shadowing anyway if they get stuck under mid-level deformation. Winds should also go north by maybe 09z during the storm which shuts off any real downsloping component. Yeah winds should be north for the bulk of the storm here so we'll be OK. Up north in Mass it will be a bit different I'm sure. The storms that stall to our south are when I worry about downsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Albany is the first to go blizzard warning to clarify, in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well the NAM has gotten much cheaper on precip. from those Widespread 3.0-5.0 qpf totals. So they are probably more real now and they are in the line with the EURO so maybe for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is that all snow for BOS on the NAM verbatim? Or is there some taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 man, these runs are epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 HowdyI Laughed my Azzzz off at the thought of someone saying Howdy to the storm for the first time Really Being something on radar after coming out of Texas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Will be shocked if Upton doesnt go Blizz warning for most of their cov'g area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And there we have it..first blizzard warning. Litchfield county http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CTZ001&warncounty=CTC005&firewxzone=CTZ001&local_place1=&product1=Blizzard+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anxiouly refreshing Upton's discussion page, should be a fun read when it come out. Here' their new map, roughly double their previous one in the city. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BOX putting up the blizzard warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Okay, here are a few images I plotted up: First is frontogenesis at 36 hours from the 12-km 18z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nice Blizzard warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ALY WSWarning for entire area, except Blizzard Warning for Litchfield County. BTV WSWarning for most of the area, advisory(4-8") for champlain valley and far northern vermont. Their warning criteria is 9" I think, and they usually hold off on warnings unless it's going to be the real deal. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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