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Feb 8th-9th Potential Blizzard


dryslot

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I'm only thinking 5-7 here in Newport.  Every time I change back to snow the heaviest moisture has moved too far to my N and E. I'm expecting the Cape and Rollo gets more than me.  The NAM's bump NW is predicticable...the GFS being farther offshore is predictable...and I expect the Euro to bump NW.  Boxing Day 2010...and the two biggies in January 2011 all trended NW inside 36 hours.  A lot of these biggies that are progged to stay down at the benchmark often find a way to make it up to ACK.

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That was a bit of a stretch. As I remember it, there was thundersnow but not severe.

Really maybe you should have been next to the ocean, nearly 3 hours of constant thunder and lightning with sustained winds of 45 gusting over hurricane strength. The closer you are to the dryslot the worse the conditions. I do not lie or stretch anything.
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calm before the abject terror -

 
i cann't press any harder the significance of 52kt sustained wind in mid boundary layer, and although that was over Boston, you can bet you're getting 80% of that momentum even in the interior, in gusts.  That could actually mean debris mixed in with the choking white-out snow.  
 
If anyone is out on the road in that ...   two words:  Darwin Award!  Particularly on the Coastal Plain -
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Wait...Tolland didnt cancel first?

 

LOL

 

I'm only thinking 5-7 here in Newport.  Every time I change back to snow the heaviest moisture has moved too far to my N and E. I'm expecting the Cape and Rollo gets more than me.  The NAM's bump NW is predicticable...the GFS being farther offshore is predictable...and I expect the Euro to bump NW.  Boxing Day 2010...and the two biggies in January 2011 all trended NW inside 36 hours.  A lot of these biggies that are progged to stay down at the benchmark often find a way to make it up to ACK.

 

I was thinking 4-8 here, up to thinking about 8 or 9 plus or minus an inch or two.  Same fears as you.  BI and Phil (not CC Phil) have some good ideas WRT low placement potential later.  We'll see what the Euro does.  It looks essentially like every model but the NAM mirrored the Euro.

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Really maybe you should have been next to the ocean, nearly 3 hours of constant thunder and lightning with sustained winds of 45 gusting over hurricane strength. The closer you are to the dryslot the worse the conditions. I do not lie or stretch anything.

Don't take it personally, Steve. It's cool. I wasn't next to the ocean. 

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calm before the abject terror -

 
i cann't press any harder the significance of 52kt sustained wind in mid boundary layer, and although that was over Boston, you can bet you're getting 80% of that momentum even in the interior, in gusts.  That could actually mean debris mixed in with the choking white-out snow.  
 
If anyone is out on the road in that ...   two words:  Darwin Award!  Particularly on the Coastal Plain -

I was next to Lake Michigan in Chicago in Jan 99.  60mph gusts....couldn't see and had to turn around and walk back....concerned we might've make a wrong step somewhere near the lake.  Unreal and painful.  Couldn't face the wind.

 

I was never happier....

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Bob Kovachick, the long time met in ALB actually showed the RPM output on the noon news. They seem to be riding the western outliers such as the NAM and RPM around here.  I'd be more cautious for now as long as the Euro and GFS continue to keep most of the best banding from the Berkshires east. I think the RGEM got around 1" to ALB, but the track was clearly more in the eastern camp.

 

 

 

Rgem looks dead nuts on euro spot at 48 right? Will etc? I'm on my phone too. But looks about like euro?

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Latest from NCEP, pre Euro, blend the 12z GFS/GEFS with the 12z NAM which is the 0z Euro.

 

THE CURRENT THINKING IS TO GO
HALFWAY BETWEEN THE RECENT 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS WHICH WOULD MAKE THE
00Z ECMWF A REASONABLE STARTING PT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...COMBINING THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN/00Z
ECMWF ENS MEAN WOULD BE PRUDENT HERE.
 

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The word on the street here is that Stamford will have an early release tomorrow, however, that seems really dumb, since it's supposed to get worse as it goes on. If I had to guess they close school, but will wait until the morning to do so.

 

-skisheep

there will not be a single school district open in ct tomorrow.

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The word on the street here is that Stamford will have an early release tomorrow, however, that seems really dumb, since it's supposed to get worse as it goes on. If I had to guess they close school, but will wait until the morning to do so.

-skisheep

Snow starts overnight. There won't be one school in the state open. Not 1
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The word on the street here is that Stamford will have an early release tomorrow, however, that seems really dumb, since it's supposed to get worse as it goes on. If I had to guess they close school, but will wait until the morning to do so.

 

-skisheep

depends on whether there's snow on the ground at 6am...if it starts at 9 or so, they could at least get in a half day since the heavier stuff doesnt come till evening...

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I think you are right...

 

-skisheep

WE have not had a single snow day since 10-11 plenty of hurricane days.........light snow starts pre dawn, lawsuits etc etc I would imagine once winter storm and blizzard warnings start flying schools will start announcing tonight they are shut down tomorrow just makes life easy

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with winds out of the N I would think it's more of an issue for Long Island's north shore?

winds are east tonight, piles the water in, they go more northerly as the day goes on but still plenty of issues...............looks like this is pretty much an all snow event now.  Need a big euro run something close to the nam and I am going to go all in.

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WE have not had a single snow day since 10-11 plenty of hurricane days.........light snow starts pre dawn, lawsuits etc etc I would imagine once winter storm and blizzard warnings start flying schools will start announcing tonight they are shut down tomorrow just makes life easy

Agree-the hype and phrase "blizzard warning" should do the trick....plus with the weekend coming, they don't need to worry about multiple days off...

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