SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 But going all in before we even have the storm developed just leaves no room to move in a direction Sure it does...further upward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm only thinking 5-7 here in Newport. Every time I change back to snow the heaviest moisture has moved too far to my N and E. I'm expecting the Cape and Rollo gets more than me. The NAM's bump NW is predicticable...the GFS being farther offshore is predictable...and I expect the Euro to bump NW. Boxing Day 2010...and the two biggies in January 2011 all trended NW inside 36 hours. A lot of these biggies that are progged to stay down at the benchmark often find a way to make it up to ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That was a bit of a stretch. As I remember it, there was thundersnow but not severe.Really maybe you should have been next to the ocean, nearly 3 hours of constant thunder and lightning with sustained winds of 45 gusting over hurricane strength. The closer you are to the dryslot the worse the conditions. I do not lie or stretch anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 calm before the abject terror - i cann't press any harder the significance of 52kt sustained wind in mid boundary layer, and although that was over Boston, you can bet you're getting 80% of that momentum even in the interior, in gusts. That could actually mean debris mixed in with the choking white-out snow. If anyone is out on the road in that ... two words: Darwin Award! Particularly on the Coastal Plain - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wait...Tolland didnt cancel first? LOL I'm only thinking 5-7 here in Newport. Every time I change back to snow the heaviest moisture has moved too far to my N and E. I'm expecting the Cape and Rollo gets more than me. The NAM's bump NW is predicticable...the GFS being farther offshore is predictable...and I expect the Euro to bump NW. Boxing Day 2010...and the two biggies in January 2011 all trended NW inside 36 hours. A lot of these biggies that are progged to stay down at the benchmark often find a way to make it up to ACK. I was thinking 4-8 here, up to thinking about 8 or 9 plus or minus an inch or two. Same fears as you. BI and Phil (not CC Phil) have some good ideas WRT low placement potential later. We'll see what the Euro does. It looks essentially like every model but the NAM mirrored the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am guessing if this pans out as modeled some of these jaded guys will understand. I envy you Mass guys right on the ocean. I will miss that part dearly, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Really maybe you should have been next to the ocean, nearly 3 hours of constant thunder and lightning with sustained winds of 45 gusting over hurricane strength. The closer you are to the dryslot the worse the conditions. I do not lie or stretch anything. Don't take it personally, Steve. It's cool. I wasn't next to the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am guessing if this pans out as modeled some of these jaded guys will understand. I envy you Mass guys right on the ocean. I will miss that part dearly, If only some were around in 1978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 calm before the abject terror - i cann't press any harder the significance of 52kt sustained wind in mid boundary layer, and although that was over Boston, you can bet you're getting 80% of that momentum even in the interior, in gusts. That could actually mean debris mixed in with the choking white-out snow. If anyone is out on the road in that ... two words: Darwin Award! Particularly on the Coastal Plain - I was next to Lake Michigan in Chicago in Jan 99. 60mph gusts....couldn't see and had to turn around and walk back....concerned we might've make a wrong step somewhere near the lake. Unreal and painful. Couldn't face the wind. I was never happier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sure it does...further upward You need to be hit on the nose with a rolled up newspaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The word on the street here is that Stamford will have an early release tomorrow, however, that seems really dumb, since it's supposed to get worse as it goes on. If I had to guess they close school, but will wait until the morning to do so. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bob Kovachick, the long time met in ALB actually showed the RPM output on the noon news. They seem to be riding the western outliers such as the NAM and RPM around here. I'd be more cautious for now as long as the Euro and GFS continue to keep most of the best banding from the Berkshires east. I think the RGEM got around 1" to ALB, but the track was clearly more in the eastern camp. Rgem looks dead nuts on euro spot at 48 right? Will etc? I'm on my phone too. But looks about like euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The interstates should be closed at 6PM tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Debris in choking snow? Lol. It's not an ef4. Should we expect to see. Debris ball on radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 5ft coastal flood tide with 5-7 foot waves here......astro winds gusting to 60 and feet of snow. Should be a wild ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Chances of greater than 30" of snow. Simply ridiculous ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Latest from NCEP, pre Euro, blend the 12z GFS/GEFS with the 12z NAM which is the 0z Euro. THE CURRENT THINKING IS TO GOHALFWAY BETWEEN THE RECENT 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS WHICH WOULD MAKE THE00Z ECMWF A REASONABLE STARTING PT. GIVEN THEUNCERTAINTY...COMBINING THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN/00ZECMWF ENS MEAN WOULD BE PRUDENT HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The word on the street here is that Stamford will have an early release tomorrow, however, that seems really dumb, since it's supposed to get worse as it goes on. If I had to guess they close school, but will wait until the morning to do so. -skisheep there will not be a single school district open in ct tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Debris in choking snow? Lol. It's not an ef4. Should we expect to see. Debris ball on radar? Nah, it'll be a landphoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The word on the street here is that Stamford will have an early release tomorrow, however, that seems really dumb, since it's supposed to get worse as it goes on. If I had to guess they close school, but will wait until the morning to do so. -skisheep Snow starts overnight. There won't be one school in the state open. Not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 there will not be a single school district open in ct tomorrow. I think you are right... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The word on the street here is that Stamford will have an early release tomorrow, however, that seems really dumb, since it's supposed to get worse as it goes on. If I had to guess they close school, but will wait until the morning to do so. -skisheep depends on whether there's snow on the ground at 6am...if it starts at 9 or so, they could at least get in a half day since the heavier stuff doesnt come till evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 5ft coastal flood tide with 5-7 foot waves here......astro winds gusting to 60 and feet of snow. Should be a wild ride. with winds out of the N I would think it's more of an issue for Long Island's north shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 depends on whether there's snow on the ground at 6am...if it starts at 9 or so, they could at least get in a half day since the heavier stuff doesnt come till evening... Ya wouldn't shock me if some schools pull off a half day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ya wouldn't shock me if some schools pull off a half day. This is a Blizzard...no way anything is open tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think you are right... -skisheep WE have not had a single snow day since 10-11 plenty of hurricane days.........light snow starts pre dawn, lawsuits etc etc I would imagine once winter storm and blizzard warnings start flying schools will start announcing tonight they are shut down tomorrow just makes life easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Feet and feet for days and days. These totals will have to be upped too. Think about that lol http://yfrog.com/obgx9pp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What do you guys think about NYC schools? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 with winds out of the N I would think it's more of an issue for Long Island's north shore? winds are east tonight, piles the water in, they go more northerly as the day goes on but still plenty of issues...............looks like this is pretty much an all snow event now. Need a big euro run something close to the nam and I am going to go all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 WE have not had a single snow day since 10-11 plenty of hurricane days.........light snow starts pre dawn, lawsuits etc etc I would imagine once winter storm and blizzard warnings start flying schools will start announcing tonight they are shut down tomorrow just makes life easy Agree-the hype and phrase "blizzard warning" should do the trick....plus with the weekend coming, they don't need to worry about multiple days off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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