dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Definitely still a nice storm, but backing away from historic territory for NNE at least. Not yet, I would not base that off the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Classic back bent WF at 700. Epic. The depth of the snow growth region on some of these soundings is awesome. That will help with achieving some great rates too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Uncle (Ukie) came back west too...looks like it tracks almost over the BM. It was way east last night. Call for ORH? (I know were getting a lot, I'm curious what numbers you'd throw out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah the OP runs....GEFS has been pretty good in the off hours. OP run bad. RGEM is up on meteocentre. I think even east of the GFS by some bit. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=036 Did someone say the GFS was lackluster? Isn't it a couple of feet of snow? Tough to tell, But it may be a hair NW of the 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Liking the GFS, 1.25" QPF all snow. Thinking Upton is going to up numbers pretty significantly (6-10" to 12-16") for me after EURO -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You can tell its trending towards NAM/EURO with regards to strength of the southern vort. It will keep getting better and better imo. I agree with you. The GFS is a very good model...better than most people give it credit. In fact...I think it is easily second to the ECMWF...and not as far behind as people think. The reality is it was not made to simulate such extreme convection, and it is still at a disadvantage due to its lower resolution and the convective params it must rely on. Unlike the NAM, the GFS will likely make a slow but positive dprog/dt trend...but will likely be hampered by poor convective params for at least another day of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Call for ORH? (I know were getting a lot, I'm curious what numbers you'd throw out) Prob 18-20 or so. There is certainly potential for higher though depending on mesoscale banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ukie destroys all of sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree with you. The GFS is a very good model...better than most people give it credit. In fact...I think it is easily second to the ECMWF...and not as far behind as people think. The reality is it was not made to simulate such extreme convection, and it is still at a disadvantage due to its lower resolution and the convective params it must rely on. Unlike the NAM, the GFS will likely make a slow but positive dprog/dt trend...but will likely be hampered by poor convective params for at least another day of runs. Its bad beyond 96-108 hours but inside of that it gets alot of crap it probably should not from people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Prob 18-20 or so. There is certainly potential for higher though depending on mesoscale banding.Sounds great, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree with you. The GFS is a very good model...better than most people give it credit. In fact...I think it is easily second to the ECMWF...and not as far behind as people think. The reality is it was not made to simulate such extreme convection, and it is still at a disadvantage due to its lower resolution and the convective params it must rely on. Unlike the NAM, the GFS will likely make a slow but positive dprog/dt trend...but will likely be hampered by poor convective params for at least another day of runs. BI, based on what you're saying I'd say you're leaning towards a more extreme/west solution? IE, towards the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sorry for the non-meteorological post (but it is related). How do the mets envision this starts, timing wise, in the Boston area? I am trying to decide what to do with my staff, i.e., when we should close our office and send people home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At this point is there a single model that doesen't show a foot plus for everyone? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tough to tell, But it may be a hair NW of the 06z run This NW shift should be a bit better for us, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At this point is there a single model that doesen't show a foot plus for everyone? -skisheep Is the NOGAPS still OTS? I thought it came west yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At this point is there a single model that doesen't show a foot plus for everyone? -skisheep NAM gives the Cape the shaft...but its probably not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not yet, I would not base that off the GFS Agreed. The GFS is notorious for going east before an event. The eastward trend for it stopped, and it came west now. Now that the NAM has stayed west, and pending the Euro holding or coming NW, I think this still could be a very big snow storm for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At this point is there a single model that doesen't show a foot plus for everyone? -skisheep Not really, even the JMA is pretty good and actually right in the consensus. http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I expect after rest of suite comes in every single outlet will have 2-3 feet. You are going to be forced to based upon what us being printed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Spoken with a tinge of disappointment. How much would you hve paid for a straight gfs solution 2 weeks ago lol. Your inference, not my implication; I'm merely comparing it to the rest of the guidance suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is the NOGAPS still OTS? I thought it came west yesterday Not in yet....the GFS/UKIE are the "worst" models right now and if either was 50-70 miles too far east with the CCB we'd be bombed on those too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 when do the warnings get hoisted up? before 18z suite or later tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I expect after rest of suite comes in every single outlet will have 2-3 feet. You are going to be forced to based upon what us being printed out I actually don't doubt that, the BOX map is looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NCEP first weigh in on the 12z ...SRN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFYING OFFSHORE OF THE NERN U.S......RAPID COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ACRS THE WRN ATLC...AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING THRU THE SERN U.S. ISCURRENTLY PRODUCING MDT TO HEAVY PCPN ACRS THE ERN GULF COAST. ASTHIS SYSTEM LIFTS N AND E...IT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY ALONG THEOUTER BANKS ON FRI MORNING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASINGOCCURRING WITH THE NRN STREAM. CONSEQUENTLY...RAPID CYCLOGENESISIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUING TO DEEPEN WHILEMOVING E OF NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. NOTABLE SHIFTS IN THENAM ARE EVIDENT AS THE 12Z RUN HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THETROF/SFC LOW ACRS THE OUTER BANKS ON 08/1200Z. THIS CONTINUESFURTHER INTO THE PERIOD AS THE 12Z NAM IS STRONGER AND MORE TO THEN/W RELATIVE TO ITS EARLIER RUNS. EVENTUALLY IT BEGINS LOOKINGLIKE THE 06Z RUN ACRS RI BY SAT MORNING. RELATIVE TO OTHERGUIDANCE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH THE LOW CENTER OVER THE OUTERBANKS WITH THE 12Z NAM FOLLOWING SUIT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSMEAN. AGAIN...THE MOST OUTLYING SOLN APPEARS TO BE THE 00Z UKMETWHICH IS WEAKER AND MORE OFFSHORE. THE FOLLOWING 12 HRS ARE MOSTCRUCIAL WHERE MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING ON A PARTICULAR SOLN. AT09/0000Z...THE 12Z NAM ENDS UP BEING THE FARTHEST W MODEL WITH THE00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENS MEAN JUST OFF TO ITS E. FURTHER...THE 06ZGFS/GEFS MEAN IS E OF THE ECMWF SUITE OF SOLNS WHICH HAS BEENNOTED IN THE PAST SEVERAL ENS RUNS. THE ENS SFC LOW PLOTSACCURATELY DEPICT THIS DIVERGING OF OPINIONS ALBEIT WITHDIMINISHING SPREAD RELATIVE TO FEB 6 (00Z/12Z) GUIDANCE. ON ASIDE...THE 00Z UKMET IS THE MOST OFFSHORE SOLN WITH NO SUPPORT ATTHIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BI, based on what you're saying I'd say you're leaning towards a more extreme/west solution? IE, towards the NAM? Hard to call. Still a lot of sensitivity to timing of the northern stream phase and how moist DMC continues to develop the southern low. The NAM races that southern low to the N pretty fast and that is mostly why it takes such a westward track. The NAM would definitely represent the extreme solution. The 00z ECMWF Ens actually strikes a relatively nice balance from what I have seen in current observations and modeling. I think a more realistic reasoning for a farther W solution would be if the northern stream digs/deepens more and slows down...a possible solution. Giving probabilities though, there is a far greater chance, IMHO, that this would wrap up tightly along the coast than take an eastward track. I do think the NAM has a low probability of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think I'm escaping to middleboro mass for the weekend with my buddy from school. Still debating because I have alot of work to do. Good call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm going to hold @ 15-30" for my area......just too many mesoscale nuances in a system so grande to be much more percise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There is not doubt the southern stream is more amplified than the models had been projecting. However, I do want to throw caution in the wind. The importance of BOTH the northern stream shortwave and the southern stream shortwave can't be overstated. My concern is that the southern stream shortwave continues to become more and more dominant until its driving the phase interaction. This is important to think about from a vorticity perspective, since the dominant vorticity maxima will tend to drive the motion and timing of the phasing. A stronger southern stream s/w and a weaker northern stream s/w might lead to a more amplified (and lower SLP) cyclone, but it also might mean it bombs further offshore. For the further westward tracks to verify (and for all of the NE to get blitzed with snow rather than merely E MA/NH and Maine) we also need the northern stream to continue to amplify in step with the southern stream impulse. Thats what happened in the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard, the northern stream drove the interaction with the southern stream s/w. Even though the southern stream s/w vorticity was under-forecasted, so was the northern stream s/w. That's what ultimately lead to a much further west solution with a rapidly deepening cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 This NW shift should be a bit better for us, no? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm going to hold @ 15-30" for my area......just too many mesoscale nuances in a system so grande to be much more percise. I think that's healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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