baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't think so. Looks pretty close to 06z run at 27hrs. It is quite a bit different...most importantly and more realistically...it isn't forming a spurious region of extreme DMC across the NE quadrant of the low along the warm front/LLJ axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks good for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It is quite a bit different...most importantly and more realistically...it isn't forming a spurious region of extreme DMC across the NE quadrant of the low along the warm front/LLJ axis. I was totally also going to say that but figured it was totes obvious to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Massive difference in how 12z GFS initialized the southern low. Much deeper and slower through its early progression. Please stick around, your updates are appreciated. Great post earlier with the water vapor, the system is really wrapping up already. GFS...for whatever reason is less exicting with the QPF through 48. Still terrific though. I was totally also going to say that but figured it was totes obvious to everyone. BI is good, not sure what he's talking about, but it makes sense Need a great meso low guy around during an event like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Its better then 06z, A little further north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well the GFS doesn't look AS good as I thought it would based on earlier frames but it is still a shellacking. Wow. 20-30" for some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Winds really ramping up... Lovely long duration crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I could live with the GFS...could also live with maybe a 50 mile tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is most conservative and it gives me 15" back home. 18-26" is my call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was totally also going to say that but figured it was totes obvious to everyone. Not a good idea to make assumptions on a weather weenie board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pedestrian (hard linked) Well the GFS doesn't look AS good as I thought it would based on earlier frames but it is still a shellacking. Wow. 20-30" for some spots. Pedestrian (hard linked) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Better than the last few runs, but still way east of most models. I imagine is continues its west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Uncle (Ukie) came back west too...looks like it tracks almost over the BM. It was way east last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM West..GFS east.. EURO in the middle.. looks good to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RGEM is an absolute snow shellacking for BOS. Qpf obscene and still raging at 48 hours.....wow! Gfs 12-24 for most of us but 4-8 for NYC vs nam burial. Rollio is right..livery tough forecst for the largest metro area iin the east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Its better then 06z, A little further north and west After yesterday's excitement, seeing only enough qpf for high-end advisory snow on 06z was a bit of a comedown. The rebound would be welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not quite as juiced as the Euro but still substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You can tell its trending towards NAM/EURO with regards to strength of the southern vort. It will keep getting better and better imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Uncle (Ukie) came back west too...looks like it tracks almost over the BM. It was way east last night. GFS is still a touch lackluster compared to the rest of what I've seen. I think it's good to at least factor it into the overall picture when projecting what's actually going to happen tomorrow. About 1.5" QPF for Boston is still a solid hit. NWS's 1-2 feet broadbrush sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ern ma smoke show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Uncle (Ukie) came back west too...looks like it tracks almost over the BM. It was way east last night. Yep, hard linking for record keeping. With the new mb limits...no longer an issue to leave stuff for the history of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 After yesterday's excitement, seeing only enough qpf for high-end advisory snow on 06z was a bit of a comedown. The rebound would be welcome. Foe whatever reason over the last couple days the 06z run and 18z runs have been noticeably different then the 0z and 12z and there really should not be i don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS shows the stall/loop as well it just does it a bit too far NE of the BM to rack up the snowfall outside of SE MA and the cape. GFS had the loop over ACK. will have to see it the EURO spliits the difference between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Trends gave been rather favorable today especially for some of the fence sitters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Classic back bent WF at 700. Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Better than the last few runs, but still way east of most models. I imagine is continues its west trend. Definitely still a nice storm, but backing away from historic territory for NNE at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Foe whatever reason over the last couple days the 06z run and 18z runs have been noticeably different then the 0z and 12z and there really should not be i don't think Very noticable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is still a touch lackluster compared to the rest of what I've seen. I think it's good to at least factor it into the overall picture when projecting what's actually going to happen tomorrow. About 1.5" QPF for Boston is still a solid hit. NWS's 1-2 feet broadbrush sounds reasonable. Spoken with a tinge of disappointment. How much would you hve paid for a straight gfs solution 2 weeks ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Very noticable Yeah, Its like they have a hiccup and end up to far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Foe whatever reason over the last couple days the 06z run and 18z runs have been noticeably different then the 0z and 12z and there really should not be i don't think Yeah the OP runs....GEFS has been pretty good in the off hours. OP run bad. RGEM is up on meteocentre. I think even east of the GFS by some bit. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=036 Did someone say the GFS was lackluster? Isn't it a couple of feet of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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