Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Rgem looks dead nuts on euro spot at 48 right? Will etc? I'm on my phone too. But looks about like euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM Bufkit really not as bad down here as I expected. Was expecting a prolonged period of sleet...but really only spits out ~0.5" as sleet...2"+ all snow. Still would be surprised if any of the other major guidance came in that amped. Agreed. Guarentee the GFS isn't as amped. I also bet the GFS won't be the final solution either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol at Tim Kelly tweets for NYC and BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm pretty jealous of missing out on experiencing something of this magnitude but we'll do just fine over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here RGEM at 48...it did take a much wider turn: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here RGEM at 48...it did take a much wider turn: Did it still track inside the BM or over it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It has a band..like a low level fronto band similar to Boxing day 2010. I'd rather not have the NAM because when it's that close...stuff like drysloits and meso things can cause good and bad issues regarding snow. But a lot of times being near the dry slot is where you can get csi so its a double edged sword and offers really good banding not far from the dry slot. I'd still lean towards the euro solution than the NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Did it still track inside the BM or over it? 12 hour panels can't tell really probably over or se. Geez. I know the tendency is to discount the nam but what if its right? Huge stakes for NYC etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 A couple observations worth noting that lends credence to the ECMWF and away from eastward 00z solutions is the way the moist convection is developing across the GOM/SE states. Convection along the trough axis is wrapping inward into a quasi convective scale comma cloud...which indicates the diabatic low is interacting favorably with the split upper jet...and is likely deepening into a well developed closed PV anomaly in the low levels as opposed to propagating east along an elongated front. You can see the difference in the NAM how it initializes and develops the precip shield compared to previous runs which simulated , IMHO, spurious/unrealistic precip bullseyes too far ahead of the low. I would say there is increasing confidence that an east track is unlikely. Bigger worry may eventually be how far W this low wraps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 12 hour panels can't tell really probably over or se. Geez. I know the tendency is to discount the nam but what if its right? Huge stakes for NYC etc. Well a Nam track as opposed to the Euro track for most won't matter much but up here its a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Did it still track inside the BM or over it? Tracks just about directly over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 But a lot of times being near the dry slot is where you can get csi so its a double edged sword and offers really good banding not far from the dry slot. I'd still lean towards the euro solution than the NAM solution. Yeah definitely. That area actually pushes into NH and ME too. The NAM had tremendous lift over the 950 and 850 WF. Not often you have a 850 theta-e plume lined perpendicular over the 850 WF. Was awesome to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Baro, noticed that as well. Awesome WV look to it with drier air right on the edge of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Tracks just about directly over it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am pleased with the NAM. My guess is too amped up...but we'll see. I do think an inside the BM track..in betrween ACK and the BM is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ginxy 1) Happy Birthday 2) Historic - can we use that yet? Top 5 for Boston? Top 10 for ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I have horrible memories of Boxing day. If this storm closes off too quickly and occludes, it may cause a intense bands to form, and then dryslots in my area. One town gets 30 inches, the other 10. Similar to MBY. We tried to drive to PWM that day (wife's surgery follow-up) because my place had -SN, and gave it up when we hit near-zero visibility in AUG, where 15" fell and blizzard criteria were met for 3+ hr. I measured 8", and to the north, Eustis had 17", NW - Rangeley 23.5". The same thing happened two weeks later, 14-15" AUG, 15.4" Rangeley, 7.3" MBY. Was still a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is going to come in more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS slightly west of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Baro, noticed that as well. Awesome WV look to it with drier air right on the edge of the convection. Yeah I am impressed. It is beginning to form into a very well defined and organized area of DMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 WOW the GFS might look like the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is going to come in more amped. Yeah this is going to slaughter SNE again. This is going to be so much fun to watch unfold. Going to be one heck of a wall of +SN/++SN moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 WOW the GFS might look like the NAM... Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 should be East of the NAM though, based on through hr 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is going to come in more amped. I don't think so. Looks pretty close to 06z run at 27hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is going to come in more amped. Yeah I would hope so considerign its last two runs, lol. Hopefully today and tonight is when we start honing in on the exact track...Euro has been pretty consistent. Might be close to the final outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is going to come in more amped. Massive difference in how 12z GFS initialized the southern low. Much deeper and slower through its early progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is going to be a nicer GFS run, east of the NAM but west of 6z. EURO esque? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Massive difference in how 12z GFS initialized the southern low. Much deeper and slower through its early progression. Yes, very noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS going to be west, but not as far as NAM. Looks much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.