ksstormhunter Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just refreshed my Trendcast output for Boston area. Looking at snow to begin around 08/16Z, then increasing in intensity around 23Z, with the heaviest snow looking to be from 09/01Z to 09/20Z. Showing rates of up to 1.6" per hour during this time frame. Total snowput for the storm looks to be around 21.4 to 22.3" in and around the Boston area. In addition, seeing winds over 40Kts from 09/04Z to 09/18Z, peaking at 47Kts around 13 to 15Z timeframe. Airtravel will be the worst from 8/18Z to 09/18Z, with LIFR conditions. Boston Output: http://smartwxmodel.net/51.htm Worcester Output http://smartwxmodel.net/52.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM may go just SE of ACK. It's taking every fiber of my being not to leave here tonight and come up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There's a pretty good period of a pellet-fest in SW CT on the 12z NAM before it goes over to obscenely heavy snow for a time. When would you it say it changes over to snow? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Have to say it...Harwinton jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Have to say it...Harwinton jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Qpf max in the se is well north of where the 00z gfs had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As we said this morning this is 2-3 feet regionwide . There won't be any dryslots with this one either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I have horrible memories of Boxing day. If this storm closes off too quickly and occludes, it may cause a intense bands to form, and then dryslots in my area. One town gets 30 inches, the other 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As we said this morning this is 2-3 feet regionwide . There won't be any dryslots with this one either Are you including West of the River? Or is this just East of the river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Don't worry about that yet. Just let the models come in...I didn't mean to cause scary thoughts..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 4km nam. Lol. Rots the lot between Chatham and ack. Didn't we hear these are the models to go with in this situation? Nam= non hydrostatic? Euro hasn't moved a few miles in 3 runs. what a brutal news cycle potentially for forecasters down the coast Yes but it doesn't mean the most extreme solution of the non-hydro models is the one to follow either. The globals sans Euro were really far east. If you weight the mesos like 70/30 or 80/20 you prob end up with something close to the Euro anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Holy heck look at Bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes but it doesn't mean the most extreme solution of the non-hydro models is the one to follow either. The globals sans Euro were really far east. If you weight the mesos like 70/30 or 80/20 you prob end up with something close to the Euro anyway Rgem north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Another warm solution from the NAM I see. NAM really isn't being all that consistent...which isn't really a surprise. My guess is it winds up being the most amped solution of the 12z suite...but who knows. Just crazy that I went to bed after the 0z GFS worried that this thing might phase too late for anything more than 6-8" around here...only to see the NAM spit out something on the other end of the spectrum this morning...an early phase leading to a sleet fest. If it ends up somewhere in the middle I think most CT posters will be happy with the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Enjoy this everyone...we've all waited a long time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Zeus is probably still waiting to buy a train ticket...but realizing they are sold out... You do realize you've taken the metaphor to a place it doesn't actually go, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I like how the NAM gets a tight, well defined eye going for a while overnight Fri-Sat lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RPM has nearly 3 feet for all of eastern Mass haha (edit * save Cape / extreme SE areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You do realize you've taken the metaphor to a place it doesn't actually go, right? LOL...just having some fun... You all in now? Or still skeptical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM may be too amped up Agreed, but more realistic than its previous runs. The speed of the low up the east coast is suspect, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RPM has nearly 3 feet for all of eastern Mass haha (edit * save Cape / extreme SE areas) The RPM has had this solution for like 4 or 5 straight runs. Its pretty entertaining to look at. Its likely too juiced up though with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Might have to plan on 30+ thanks meteorologist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think that's a more ideal track for Kevin to ORH than it is for Boston. You can see the best banding setting up to the west. But it's the NAM and it's probably a bit too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Forky is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Jay, go look at the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM may be too amped up no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Key to the rgem and nam was the slight shift north at 12z this am which probably had something to do with the convection to the north. Carries thru and by 24-30 the nam/rgem are very similar. Rgem does not pull the low west from there. Ends on the euro spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LOL...just having some fun... You all in now? Or still skeptical? Not yet, actually. There's more to shove, so bite down hard and keep quiet. But in all seriousness, it's pretty clear it's going to snow. The taint/mix/changeover issue seems to be relatively out of play for my neck of the woods, and dry slotting has not reared its ugly head. Do we get a really nice snowstorm (14-18) or a historic whooping (24+)? That's where I'm not all in yet. I still subscribe to the "there's a reason these types of totals are rare" school. I think this is the most confidence I've had in getting to that 2 foot mark in my lifetime, and I'm pretty conservative in that regard. I still think things have to break *just right* right over my area for us to really cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM Bufkit really not as bad down here as I expected. Was expecting a prolonged period of sleet...but really only spits out ~0.5" as sleet...2"+ all snow. Still would be surprised if any of the other major guidance came in that amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Key to the rgem and nam was the slight shift north at 12z this am which probably had something to do with the convection to the north. Carries thru and by 24-30 the nam/rgem are very similar. RGEM is def east of the NAM by 36h though...its bringing it out to the east near 70W...it will probably try to hook it back north, but its definitely a wider turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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