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Feb 8th-9th Potential Blizzard


dryslot

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Man, I was originally thinking 11:1 or 12:1 ratios (which could be given the factors Ocean mentioned), 15:1 would be phenomenal.

 

Absolutley.

Yeah, Mike, he makes a good point. Friction will shred some of those delicious dendrites into pulverized powder. '78 was like that. Wind can wreak havoc

 

Sometimes it's nice being away from the coastal winds.

Using the Cobb technique. Check this out http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=korh

 

It will be the CumSR column.

 

thanks!

 

21z SREFs are out. 2" 24h QPF for SE MA. 1" for the rest of SNE/CNE.

 

Seem a bit more reasonable than earlier--congrats Bob and Phil.

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SREFs seem to throw uber banding all the way up here to CA border. This is no longer just a SNE special it seems...

We won't touch the totals in SNE, haha. But why worry about comparing it? Everyone gets this jackpot fetish...it's going to snow on Friday and that's awesome. The big storms come around, sometimes you get it good, sometimes you are on the outside. SNE does these big blizzards well, while NNE is good at cruising along with 6-12'ers and the occasional whopper like Valentines Day, March 2001, St Patty's Day '06, March '11, etc.

Personally it's fun when SNE gets big snows because of the analysis and posting on here. When its NNE, most of these folks don't really care so we don't get as good lead-in analysis on the storm. I love that part of it.

Should be a doozy and very fun to watch. I remember the feeling before my two biggest events in the past 6 years (Valentines Day 30", March 2011 27") and thinking that the 2-3.5" QPF maps couldn't possibly be right. But after a couple days of those runs, you just gotta go with it and realize its the real deal.

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I put some thoughts up on my blog but the 700mb evolution on the 18z GFS is just remarkable for many areas.

 

post-40-0-55218800-1360202794_thumb.png

 

We even manage a little loop-de-loop as the 700mb tightens/matures just off Long Island. That's a SICK setup. Beautiful coupled jet streak too... I mean wow. The trick now is getting a more impressive solution like the 18z GFS to verify. The 12z Euro... with a slightly slower phase... is a big storm just not historic like the GFS. 

 

Here's what I came up with for a probabilistic forecast for CT

 

chart_1.png

 

More here.... ryanhanrahan.com

 

 

 

 

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Yeah the coastal flooding aspect of this will be pretty significant as well.  This storm is going to have virtually every impact except severe wx lol.  But yeah...coastal flooding/erosion will be an issue.  

 

This is one of those rare times where I'm perfectly fine with that. :P

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Mixing issues could be a problem there. A Euro-esque solution also puts the best snows to their northeast.

 

My typical rule of thumb for SE New London County is take what you think and divide by 2. 

 

But yeah... getting them to jackpot is exceedingly difficult. 

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My typical rule of thumb for SE New London County is take what you think and divide by 2. 

 

But yeah... getting them to jackpot is exceedingly difficult. 

 

 

They usually need something like a gravity wave....ala Mar 2009, lol. They got smoked too in the 12/19-20/09 storm too IIRC.

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