ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFs seem to throw uber banding all the way up here to CA border. This is no longer just a SNE special it seems... It still is, dude lol...trust me..if you temper your expectations you won't be disappointed. think 8-12" right now, tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Man, I was originally thinking 11:1 or 12:1 ratios (which could be given the factors Ocean mentioned), 15:1 would be phenomenal. Absolutley. Yeah, Mike, he makes a good point. Friction will shred some of those delicious dendrites into pulverized powder. '78 was like that. Wind can wreak havoc Sometimes it's nice being away from the coastal winds. Using the Cobb technique. Check this out http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=korh It will be the CumSR column. thanks! 21z SREFs are out. 2" 24h QPF for SE MA. 1" for the rest of SNE/CNE. Seem a bit more reasonable than earlier--congrats Bob and Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nice map http://wxedge.com/articles/20130206quincys_snowfall_forecast Yeah, seems reasonable, 6-12" on south coast bumped up to 9-15" maybe? Both EURO and GFS have 9"+ for entire state... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFs seem to throw uber banding all the way up here to CA border. This is no longer just a SNE special it seems... We won't touch the totals in SNE, haha. But why worry about comparing it? Everyone gets this jackpot fetish...it's going to snow on Friday and that's awesome. The big storms come around, sometimes you get it good, sometimes you are on the outside. SNE does these big blizzards well, while NNE is good at cruising along with 6-12'ers and the occasional whopper like Valentines Day, March 2001, St Patty's Day '06, March '11, etc. Personally it's fun when SNE gets big snows because of the analysis and posting on here. When its NNE, most of these folks don't really care so we don't get as good lead-in analysis on the storm. I love that part of it. Should be a doozy and very fun to watch. I remember the feeling before my two biggest events in the past 6 years (Valentines Day 30", March 2011 27") and thinking that the 2-3.5" QPF maps couldn't possibly be right. But after a couple days of those runs, you just gotta go with it and realize its the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I put some thoughts up on my blog but the 700mb evolution on the 18z GFS is just remarkable for many areas. We even manage a little loop-de-loop as the 700mb tightens/matures just off Long Island. That's a SICK setup. Beautiful coupled jet streak too... I mean wow. The trick now is getting a more impressive solution like the 18z GFS to verify. The 12z Euro... with a slightly slower phase... is a big storm just not historic like the GFS. Here's what I came up with for a probabilistic forecast for CT More here.... ryanhanrahan.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think the NAM through 30 is looking good...but I will let others confirm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yeah, NAM should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Latest RPM...just awesome. Pick cities: Important to note (It may still be snowing here!) Portsmouth 41.8" Lawrence 38.3" Providence 34.3" Boston 32.8" Worcester 31.8" Concord, NH 24.8" Hartford 20.8" Hyannis 17.3" Just insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I actually think GON has the best chance of the higher snowfall amounts. Not sure what you're seeing, temp problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah the coastal flooding aspect of this will be pretty significant as well. This storm is going to have virtually every impact except severe wx lol. But yeah...coastal flooding/erosion will be an issue. This is one of those rare times where I'm perfectly fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like it will be west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 People need to hop off the RPM's D haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I actually think GON has the best chance of the higher snowfall amounts. Not sure what you're seeing, temp problems? All sorts of issues... plus climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is one of those rare times where I'm perfectly fine with that. haha...I will actually second that! People need to hop off the RPM's D haha You know how it is...any source of data that goes extreme people jump on the D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I actually think GON has the best chance of the higher snowfall amounts. Not sure what you're seeing, temp problems? Yeah, GFS hinted at a prolonged IP threat in southern CT with warming between 800-850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM should be a big hit...definitely further west just through 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nam looks pretty nice. Expected though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I actually think GON has the best chance of the higher snowfall amounts. Not sure what you're seeing, temp problems? Mixing issues could be a problem there. A Euro-esque solution also puts the best snows to their northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 wouldn't it be a something if BUF went to IP and BOS stayed all snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Mixing issues could be a problem there. A Euro-esque solution also puts the best snows to their northeast. My typical rule of thumb for SE New London County is take what you think and divide by 2. But yeah... getting them to jackpot is exceedingly difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM actually shows a semblence of a southern stream vort this time. So this should be a more robust solution compared to that 18z disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Norther stream s/w 4mb stronger then 18z 1012mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Noyes did a nice job with his broadcast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 My typical rule of thumb for SE New London County is take what you think and divide by 2. But yeah... getting them to jackpot is exceedingly difficult. They usually need something like a gravity wave....ala Mar 2009, lol. They got smoked too in the 12/19-20/09 storm too IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 One thing with GON and SE CT is even if you don't think they will mix...they will, especially in setups like this...there are, of course times where they won't but more often than not they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Noyes did a nice job with his broadcast... Only calling for 12" in Boston, he is heavy on the mix train along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for such a crappy model...it sure takes a long time for the NAM to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for such a crappy model...it sure takes a long time for the NAM to run. Very hi-res crappy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 for such a crappy model...it sure takes a long time for the NAM to run.Taney 1000s are hard to push...give it time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Norther stream s/w 4mb stronger then 18z 1012mbwhat are you thinking for totals upyour way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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