weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For people pimping Americas model...GEFS still a major crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol at people scared.... I'll admit that during the Jan 05 Blizzard I was a little intimidated when I first looked out at dawn and it was still horizontal sn+ with most cars no longer identifiable on our street. Scared? nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The trend this evening is not kind for me, expecting the EURO to continue. Still think I verify a warning snow, but probably a low end 6-10" instead of the 12"+ that I was expecting before this GFS. We are about 30 hours out from the start, these were key runs if the snowier trend was to continue, and it looks like at least for me it will not. So, with that, I retire for the evening, and with all you EURO watchers the best of luck. Think snow! -skisheep Well, it looks like I will be eating crow. 0z EURO all snow or close to it 18"+, and GFS all snow or close to it 10"+. Just goes to show how much models can bounce around, and that you can't become wedded to one solution. Something that I'm still working on, but, very encouraged by the trend in the overnight hours. Now, to wait until 12z, 24 hours out, it's do or die... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS def put a small dent in my excitement. I know from looking at it like others said, it can often go too far east right before an event. So pretty common I guess. I bet it comes pretty far west at 12z. NAM is just beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For people pimping Americas model...GEFS still a major crushing. Looks great for eastern mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS def put a small dent in my excitement. I know from looking at it like others said, it can often go too far east right before an event. So pretty common I guess. I bet it comes pretty far west at 12z. NAM is just beautiful. Look on the bright side, in a winter full of $hit, you're only issue is how much, not if*, it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Look on the bright side, in a winter full of $hit, you're only issue is how much, not if*, it will snow. Yeah, but the GFS takes amounts of 20+ from NAM and gives me maybe 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS def put a small dent in my excitement. I know from looking at it like others said, it can often go too far east right before an event. So pretty common I guess. I bet it comes pretty far west at 12z. NAM is just beautiful. gfses were west so I would expect a tick west, I think we are nearing consensus, warnings will go up after 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 euro was actually closer, but colder as it was deeper/more wrapped up. intense storm modeled there. vs. 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, but the GFS takes amounts of 20+ from NAM and gives me maybe 10 inches.Stick with the euro at this point, it sniffed this out almost a week ago. Clearly has the best idea.However has anyone seen the meso models today? I think they become relevant tonight correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, it looks like I will be eating crow. 0z EURO all snow or close to it 18"+, and GFS all snow or close to it 10"+. Just goes to show how much models can bounce around, and that you can't become wedded to one solution. Something that I'm still working on, but, very encouraged by the trend in the overnight hours. Now, to wait until 12z, 24 hours out, it's do or die... -skisheep I don't think we're getting 18 on the shore. NWS has snow to snow/rain mix here tomorrow with any accumulation only around an inch which means zero on roads with highs in the mid-30s. Then tomorrow night any rain changes to snow for good, so I would think 8-12 or 10-14 will do it for coastal lower Fairfield county. Not going to be that bad down this way. Depending on how much of a northerly vs. easterly fetch there is to the wind, the coastal flooding and winds may be the bigger deal. Plus with the sun and upper-30s Sunday a lot of melting will occur especially for the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Possible but trucks/equipment are a lot better then 78. Cavat being Highways like 84 that can jam with traffic and block the plow trucks 84 jams on clear days, throw in a little snow and.... disastah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Stick with the euro at this point, it sniffed this out almost a week ago. Clearly has the best idea. However has anyone seen the meso models today? I think they become relevant tonight correct? Only runs that matter are the ones coming up All the players are on the field. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130207&endTime=-1&duration=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 He went from 15+ to 8-12 in one GFS run? No, I think he mentioned it was possible we only see 8-12 out here not that he was dropping his forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 euro was actually closer, but colder as it was deeper/more wrapped up. intense storm modeled there. vs. 12z. Whatever it takes, as hard as it might be, to keep this all snow here on the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Stick with the euro at this point, it sniffed this out almost a week ago. Clearly has the best idea. However has anyone seen the meso models today? I think they become relevant tonight correct? Euro and nam are a whomping of the mesos. Srefs also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Everyone in SNE is fine. No worries. Euro is great for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Love seeing the 06z NAM/GFS as well as 03z SREFs basically holding serve from the 00z/21z runs. Amazing seeing ~3" of QPF being spit out from the NAM/Euro and ~2" from the GFS. I'm fully on the 18-24" for interior SE MA but I think the ceiling may be higher 30-36" in some localized areas. Want to see what the 12z runs do today to be sure of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nobody knows where the jackpot will be probably somewhere in maine there the stepchild that gets no attention and usually hits home runs see ya peace, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Spc analysis has a broad area or low pressure on the gulf coast. Similar to the earlier models. Only thing of note was the precip appears to be heavier to the north than perhaps modeled. I see a couple or inches south of kdgx where most/all models had some tenths Ill to back to something I've said in years passed. Once the convection fires models seem to have a better handle on things. Ie 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Man, there is going to be one heck of a deform band to the west, and as the LP stalls whoever is under that is going to rack up unexpected numbers compared to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Spc analysis has a broad area or low pressure on the gulf coast. Similar to the earlier models. Only thing of note was the precip appears to be heavier to the north than perhaps modeled. I see a couple or inches south of kdgx where most/all models had some tenths. You still holding caution flags or are you all in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS def came west/juicier from 00z....Euro ensembles are sickening. I don't think there is much to worry about for the E MA folks. The place that seems to have a higher bust potential is SW New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Man, there is going to be one heck of a deform band to the west, and as the LP stalls whoever is under that is going to rack up unexpected numbers compared to forecast. Strongly agree. We should post mpm's qpf face on him standing waste deep in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Strongly agree. We should post mpm's qpf face on him standing waste deep in snow. I am loving what some of the maps showed last night...3 hr snowfall of 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS def came west/juicier from 00z....Euro ensembles are sickening. I don't think there is much to worry about for the E MA folks. The place that seems to have a higher bust potential is SW New England Can I pull a 20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Can I pull a 20? Its def possible. Prob pulling at least 15 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You really have to forecast 2-3 feet for all of Sne. Except maybe far south coast. And even those spots are well over 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I looked at 3z plumes for BOS....only 2 under 20 with the mean a tick over 30...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.