OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah the coastal flooding aspect of this will be pretty significant as well. This storm is going to have virtually every impact except severe wx lol. But yeah...coastal flooding/erosion will be an issue. The December 27th storm featured some of the worst coastal flooding since Patriots Day, according to EMs. That was 25-30 foot waves and a 9.5 ft tide with surges around 3 ft. I have to imagine this equals the seas and storm surge values, only Saturday morning we're expecting an 11.0 ft tide at 9:54 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At least up this way, the CAR snow algorithm was favoring 15 or 20 to 1. Assume it wouldn't be all that different for your area. There is just so much that plays into it though. For every positive in the snow ratio department, you have things like compaction and wind fracturing that will ultimately cut down on the amounts. Thanks. Is that algorithm available to gen public? Even lowend of that will make for a great event. Get to the mid and high ranges, nice compensation on lesser moisture. Let it rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 New moon, Astronomical High tides as well Where do you see this being the biggest issue? SE Ma? Coastal NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I know that the hurricane force wind warning had seas to 30-35 ft from BOX. It will be hell out there. The December 27th storm featured some of the worst coastal flooding since Patriots Day, according to EMs. That was 25-30 foot waves and a 9.5 ft tide with surges around 3 ft. I have to imagine this equals the seas and storm surge values, only Saturday morning we're expecting an 11.0 ft tide at 9:54 AM. With the potential for 1-2' (or more) of snow across many spots I hope the aspect of the coastal flooding doesn't get lost b/c this has potential to be about as serious as any other aspect of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks. Is that algorithm available to gen public? Even lowend of that will make for a great event. Get to the mid and high ranges, nice compensation on lesser moisture. Let it rip. Man, I was originally thinking 11:1 or 12:1 ratios (which could be given the factors Ocean mentioned), 15:1 would be phenomenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks. Is that algorithm available to gen public? Even lowend of that will make for a great event. Get to the mid and high ranges, nice compensation on lesser moisture. Let it rip. Yeah, Mike, he makes a good point. Friction will shred some of those delicious dendrites into pulverized powder. '78 was like that. Wind can wreak havoc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 With the potential for 1-2' (or more) of snow across many spots I hope the aspect of the coastal flooding doesn't get lost b/c this has potential to be about as serious as any other aspect of the storm. There is going to be a lot of easterly component to the winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks. Is that algorithm available to gen public? Even lowend of that will make for a great event. Get to the mid and high ranges, nice compensation on lesser moisture. Let it rip. Using the Cobb technique. Check this out http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=korh It will be the CumSR column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I know it's kind of superficial, but I'd love to know what some of these solutions would rate on the NESIS scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think staggering might be a better description should qpf approach so E of the modeled values. The wind products are very, very impressive. Looking at a several hour period of at least sustained 35-50 knots for at least eastern SNE with gusts exceeding hurricane force winds as well. Still uncertain as to how far inland the wind threat will be but given the potential for a large pressure gradient region wide I would think at least 25-35 mph sustained for much of the interior with gusts exceeding 45-55 mph. snow drifts will be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 guys first off good luck i hope you get your a**es handed to you . second make sure the batteries charge and the camers are ready to go, i want to see some goood videos chris langhorne pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I know it's kind of superficial, but I'd love to know what some of these solutions would rate on the NESIS scale. probably a 3....possibly a 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 guys first off good luck i hope you get your a**es handed to you . second make sure the batteries charge and the camers are ready to go, i want to see some goood videos chris langhorne pa Yup... I wish digital cameras were around in 1978. This could be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 probably a 3....possibly a 4. Yeah that's what I was thinking generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 21z SREFs are out. 2" 24h QPF for SE MA. 1" for the rest of SNE/CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this is insane: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREF's look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we do realize a 6-8 hr delay of the phase on the euro tonite wrt to 12z would cause bridge jumping in sne right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm planning on an Alfa Romeo photoshoot in the snow friday. Hopefully it's even safe enough to drive at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFs ticked back SE a bit it looks like....15z was really amped, so not shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 TWC just flashed a graph of Boston's five biggest snowstorms. 1) Feb 17-18 2003 2) Feb 6-7 1978 3) Feb 24-27 1969 4) March 31- April 1 1997 5) January 22-23 2005 It seems like most of of biggest storms come in this four week window were in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this is insane: gfs_bufkit_02_06_13_a.jpg Good kite flying weather right there! BTW, SREF's look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we do realize a 6-8 hr delay of the phase on the euro tonite wrt to 12z would cause bridge jumping in sne right. Undoubtedly, but even then it should be a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Undoubtedly, but even then it should be a good event. yes it would be a "good event". But at this point most are betting on a bomb. Not locking, but betting on. I'm betting but not sold. Not this year, not with out a ton of wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 bob u have a link to 21z srefs, i use ewall and they are not out yet. Although i think we all await the 0z guidance (and not meaning the nam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 bob u have a link to 21z srefs, i use ewall and they are not out yet. Although i think we all await the 0z guidance (and not meaning the nam) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esmango Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Where do you see this being the biggest issue? SE Ma? Coastal NH? Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFs ticked back SE a bit it looks like....15z was really amped, so not shocking. Just anecdotally, it seems that the SREFs follow the previous NAM as oppose to predicting what the new one will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 bob u have a link to 21z srefs, i use ewall and they are not out yet. Although i think we all await the 0z guidance (and not meaning the nam)NCEPhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/sref_area_param.php?model=sref&cycle=20130206+21+UTC Mean SLP right over BM or a hair inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFs seem to throw uber banding all the way up here to CA border. This is no longer just a SNE special it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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