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Feb 8th-9th Potential Blizzard


dryslot

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Yeah the coastal flooding aspect of this will be pretty significant as well.  This storm is going to have virtually every impact except severe wx lol.  But yeah...coastal flooding/erosion will be an issue.  

 

 

The December 27th storm featured some of the worst coastal flooding since Patriots Day, according to EMs. That was 25-30 foot waves and a 9.5 ft tide with surges around 3 ft. I have to imagine this equals the seas and storm surge values, only Saturday morning we're expecting an 11.0 ft tide at 9:54 AM.

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At least up this way, the CAR snow algorithm was favoring 15 or 20 to 1. Assume it wouldn't be all that different for your area. There is just so much that plays into it though. For every positive in the snow ratio department, you have things like compaction and wind fracturing that will ultimately cut down on the amounts.

Thanks. Is that algorithm available to gen public? Even lowend of that will make for a great event. Get to the mid and high ranges, nice compensation on lesser moisture. Let it rip.

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I know that the hurricane force wind warning had seas to 30-35 ft from BOX. It will be hell out there.

 

 

The December 27th storm featured some of the worst coastal flooding since Patriots Day, according to EMs. That was 25-30 foot waves and a 9.5 ft tide with surges around 3 ft. I have to imagine this equals the seas and storm surge values, only Saturday morning we're expecting an 11.0 ft tide at 9:54 AM.

 

With the potential for 1-2' (or more) of snow across many spots I hope the aspect of the coastal flooding doesn't get lost b/c this has potential to be about as serious as any other aspect of the storm.

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Thanks. Is that algorithm available to gen public? Even lowend of that will make for a great event. Get to the mid and high ranges, nice compensation on lesser moisture. Let it rip.

 

Man, I was originally thinking 11:1 or 12:1 ratios (which could be given the factors Ocean mentioned), 15:1 would be phenomenal.

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Thanks. Is that algorithm available to gen public? Even lowend of that will make for a great event. Get to the mid and high ranges, nice compensation on lesser moisture. Let it rip.

Yeah, Mike, he makes a good point. Friction will shred some of those delicious dendrites into pulverized powder. '78 was like that. Wind can wreak havoc

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With the potential for 1-2' (or more) of snow across many spots I hope the aspect of the coastal flooding doesn't get lost b/c this has potential to be about as serious as any other aspect of the storm.

 

There is going to be a lot of easterly component to the winds

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Thanks. Is that algorithm available to gen public? Even lowend of that will make for a great event. Get to the mid and high ranges, nice compensation on lesser moisture. Let it rip.

 

Using the Cobb technique. Check this out http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=korh

 

It will be the CumSR column.

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I think staggering might be a better description should qpf approach so

E of the modeled values.

The wind products are very, very impressive. Looking at a several hour period of at least sustained 35-50 knots for at least eastern SNE with gusts exceeding hurricane force winds as well. Still uncertain as to how far inland the wind threat will be but given the potential for a large pressure gradient region wide I would think at least 25-35 mph sustained for much of the interior with gusts exceeding 45-55 mph.

snow drifts will be impressive.

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