Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pretty much anyone east of the CT River in SNE gets over 2" of qpf...to save time for asking how much. Some high 2s in E MA...maybe a weenie 3" spot. hot damn! any warming issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yup. I've done that every NAM and EURO run. Bring on 3 Feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It looks like I picked a good time to make a roadtrip to Marlboro MASS, after seeing 00z EURO not sure if I will be able to sleep. Theres another americanwx brah who is trying to make it up here, but if he can't come I leave it open to anyone who wants to stay. EURO looks absolutely epic! Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hot damn! any warming issues? No except maybe some boundayr layer problems on the cape in the early stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yup. I've done that every NAM and EURO run. Bring on 3 Feet. yes it was on the news, i salute you. lol man i had big concerns tonite wrt euro, smiling wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We've seen this before. Euro has the best handle on these southern stream convective blobs. This has major impacts down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 thanks will sleep now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 No except maybe some boundayr layer problems on the cape in the early stages. Will, Can you give me a number for here? I can't see exact qpf on the weenie SV map Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Thanks Will! As Always. Um - What was on the news cpick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BOS ends up right around 2.90" liquid ORH with 2.35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the other thing... let's talk ratios; at 20:1, 2.2" ...um, 44"? come on? Maybe compaction - even at 20:1, weight starts to compress at some point - wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 One more day to go, but wow. Does anyone have any feel for coastal flooding in scale? Ie compared to other major events like 05, 78 etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 bufkit for knyc anyone? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BTV WRF 0z thru the roof! and only runs thru 7am saturday click run total precip accum http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ you can see central and east mass still getting bomb'd at 7am so plenty more qpf to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 u running thru town was . 2.90 QPF BOS , alright baby. 4 runs in a row near 3qpf for boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the other thing... let's talk ratios; at 20:1, 2.2" ...um, 44"? come on? Maybe compaction - even at 20:1, weight starts to compress at some point - wow. Who was suggesting this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 KLEW, Thanks 1.22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 un-f'n-believable is about right... snowfall, hour 57-63, 0z Euro 02/07/2013: top 10er incoming great job today all. thanks for the pbp will. pace yourselves and get rest people, this is gonna be a long next 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone have an educated opinion/guess at snow ratios at the height of this storm? For ORH we're looking at 15-20F surface temps Friday night into Saturday morning. This would ROUGHLY translate to 20:1 ratios. What's more realistic, 15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Who was suggesting this? The Euro run? what's the question - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone have an educated opinion/guess at snow ratios at the height of this storm? For ORH we're looking at 15-20F surface temps Friday night into Saturday morning. This would ROUGHLY translate to 20:1 ratios. What's more realistic, 15:1? there more important factors then surface temp for ratio's. I heard there maybe a warmer toungue around 700mb but not sure about ratio's for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 J.B beens ranting lindsay storm showed the comparison in maps from that storm and what the models are for fri their very similar eerily same date to pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The Euro run? what's the question - I don't think he understood you were speaking rhetorically John. Storm of the century. Hard to not be excited. One question. Seeing some of the über high res stuff. Is there any chance this wraps up so fast it ends up off jersey instead of cape cod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I hope this comes to fruition for y'all. I was out plowing in the Boxing Day storm in Coastal NJ. Was in the 32"-34" bullseye...all in 14-16 hours. Rates of 4+"/hr along with thundersnow. Just an incredible experience, y'all have something magical to look forward to. And this looks like it could go well beyond that locally. Safety first for the storm chasers, it's no joking matter being out in those conditions, especially on unfamiliar roads. The NWS warnings often get scoffed at, "bring blankets, etc.", but they are not kidding. Hopefully this time tomorrow nite we'll be watching the Radar with incoming precipitation (at least down this way, maybe a few hours longer for y'all). And go Patriots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't think he understood you were speaking rhetorically John. Storm of the century. Hard to not be excited. One question. Seeing some of the über high res stuff. Is there any chance this wraps up so fast it ends up off jersey instead of cape cod? I've been entertaining that chance - yeah. Not ready to post, but... this has got meso contamination issues, and sometimes, the end end result of that is just where the best thermal gradient axis is. I was just looking at the Euro's vorticity fields and comparing to the position at 48 hours, and the low is situated oddly S of the best geostrophic forcing - even it could be suffering some c feedback. I'd go with the 00z NAM honestly, and bide time and be ready to pull the trigger against when it gets more obvious. But I don't think it will.. I don't know if that means Jersey but a compromise between that and the NAM might be okay. I just don't like it when a thunderstorm 200 mile NE of Cape Hat dictates low positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't think he understood you were speaking rhetorically John. Yeah, that wasn't exactly clear. Oh, and that 6 hr period there that wxsniss posted is pretty amazing. That would certainly be an incredible six hour period for virtually anywhere, let alone a major city/metropolitan area like Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I've been entertaining that chance - yeah. Not ready to post, but... this has got meso contamination issues, and sometimes, the end end result of that is just where the best thermal gradient axis is. I was just looking at the Euro's vorticity fields and comparing to the position at 48 hours, and the low is situated oddly S of the best geostrophic forcing - even it could be suffering some c feedback. I'd go with the 00z NAM honestly, and bide time and be ready to pull the trigger against when it gets more obvious. But I don't think it will.. I don't know if that means Jersey but a compromise between that and the NAM might be okay. I just don't like it when a thunderstorm 200 mile NE of Cape Hat dictates low positions. I think it starts pretty early too, Ie there are signs of potential contamination in the next 24 hours. Going to be a fluid situation. I'm just wondering what would stop a runaway train of it developing left. We saw the result with the ukmet when it picked a random complex too Far East and zipped out to the east. Will's 4km runs the low almost or onto the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the other thing... let's talk ratios; at 20:1, 2.2" ...um, 44"? come on? Maybe compaction - even at 20:1, weight starts to compress at some point - wow. This is very true. During PD II we had about 25" I witnessed and heard as the snows weight compacted at least 4" soon after the major snow fell. It was pretty cool though. At higher ratios 30" might stay stable but 15:1 I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 had similar concern Rollo... I actually just asked BI in the NYC thread he mentioned the 4km NAM and EC superior handling of convection... not sure which of the 2 is better because they have pretty different outcomes my guess is to lean EC given it's incredible consistency, but i'm not sure here's the 0z hi-res Nam solution, quite a bit deeper and closer, and could raise more taint issues than we're currently thinking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like most of the 00z models shifted SE enough to knock my area from a historical event to a more typical monster. 3z SREF mean appears to have pretty much held serve though. Still waiting on the ec ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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