andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ~985 hPa at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 almost like the 18zgfs with secondary qpf max over western long island.. so far don't see the stall however.. lets see what 60 brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On the contrary... Yes I realize the storm at hand is paramount but it all applies really. Also, I am drawn to AK. Not sure why. I like to click on AK via NWS gov, and just see their AFDs and balance them against the various sat channels. There is so much fascinating meteorology up there. I love it. To give you an idea of just how dorky I am, I actually go to Barrow's web cams and enjoy the autumn sea ice advances. Not sure why but maybe its the solitude. Something is peaceful and pure, and pure natural about that. Most importantly, some of the most powerful storms on the planet are tapped into GOA. Can you imagine one of those 50 Mi SE of ISP? Everything is very different up here as you probably noted already. Even the way we do the forecasts is different than the entire lower 48 NWS. ANC AFD''s are also quite rare in that they want us to write them completely from a non-technical point of view...customer driven basically. But you are right on...east coast is blessed with a very dense observational network for systems that track across the lower. You really have none of that here, and intense and/or difficult to analyze events will make even the ECMWF look silly. Toss in that synoptic variability and then try to make local scale forecasts for southern AK (what we cover...plus the entire Bering Sea!) where tiny variations in the local pressure gradients can dramatically alter channeled winds, downslope/upslope, mountain waves, etc etc., and the challenge of forecasting up here becomes ever more apparent. And you are right...the GOA is truly a graveyard for lows. Cold air sweeping down the Bering is completely blocked off by Alaska Range to our N...so it effectively forms a semi-permanent baroclinic zone over the Gulf. I have seen more occlusions this year than in my entire life. A couple sweet SAR images to show the extreme local winds and crazy barrier jets that are commonplace here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 984 sw of BM at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 garbage in, garbage out. But if the euro is really stronger/west AGAIN, I'm all in. First call for back home 16-24". Might be low in all honestly. well I'm being sarcastic, but you figure with all the new data ingested .. but of course the GFS could be right and Euro wrong... right.. btw does the EURo get the same data ingested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Epic for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sounds like it goes right over the BM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 do we get the slow down /stall for a bit still, WIll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Epic for BOS and ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 EXACT same spot at 12z Saturday as the previous two runs. That's pretty amazing if it ends up nailing this. I mean within a few miles. BTW for those in the far NW it did pull the shield SE some at that time point. It's stronger. Doesn't look any different for most of us still awake. Incredible hit. Creeps away a little faster this run. By 66 it's a bit east of the 78hr earlier run but that's splitting hairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Epic for BOS hate to do an IMBY...but how do W LI and NYC do? the plymouth site isnt updating...sorry and thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 stalls 54-60... i dont think it will have as much qpf.. but seems more realistic for a 1.5-2.25" qpf distribution for all which is reasonable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It looks like I picked a good time to make a roadtrip to Marlboro MASS, after seeing 00z EURO not sure if I will be able to sleep. Theres another americanwx brah who is trying to make it up here, but if he can't come I leave it open to anyone who wants to stay. EURO looks absolutely epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Epic for BOS My lord, that is crushing. Between 24 and 48 hrs, nearly 1 mb per hour pressure drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like 2-2.5" inches of qpf for eastern MA this time...not the 3" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Epic for BOS Epic for ORH too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like there is a 3" QPF dot in MA near NE RI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 In the words of Duffman...EUROhhhhhh yeah!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hate to do an IMBY...but how do W LI and NYC do? the plymouth site isnt updating...sorry and thanks they do great.. over a foot i would guestimate.. everyone from nyc to boston gets 1.5-2.5" qpf.. 15-25" with isolated 30"+ throughout the region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hate to do an IMBY...but how do W LI and NYC do? the plymouth site isnt updating...sorry and thanks Looks like LI gets hit hard after some initial mixing issues. OVer a foot for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like 2-2.5" inches of qpf for eastern MA this time...not the 3" amounts. How's it look for this area of CT? Thanks so much for all the updates Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Epic for ORH too? Yes...prob 2.2" of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Note: tons of lightning with the southern stream system in the GoM right now. Pretty impressive http://www.lightningstorm.com/explorer.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 well I'm being sarcastic, but you figure with all the new data ingested .. but of course the GFS could be right and Euro wrong... right.. btw does the EURo get the same data ingested? Could very well be data assimilation, but much of the discrepancy is likely related to the development of the southern low, IMHO, which is related to physics, res, convective params, boundary layer params, etc etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What are we looking at for North Shore BOS? Specifically Beverly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the southern stream distrubance seems to be further SE of mid Nc coast (instead of on mid coast coast) on 0z products. are there any changes on the stuff phil8822 (may be spell'd wrong but he's a met) posted yesterday regarding something that help'd the southern stream disturbance gain latitude better? i think he referred to something tropical. vague i know. I was referring to subtle subtropical ridging that often isn't forecasted well in the global models. Indeed, both the GFS and ECMWF now have just a slight amount of ridging on the DT-Pressure Surface. Note the sharp cutoff in tropopause pressure (100-200 hPa). As the forecast has moved closer and closer in time, this boundary shifted slowly northward, the boundary the disturbance (looking at low-level cyclonic vorticity) was riding along. Once this boundary moved far enough north, boom it was able to interact with the northern stream shortwave and we saw rapid cyclogensis take place. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F054/dtpres/namer/dtpres_namer_dprog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like LI gets hit hard after some initial mixing issues. OVer a foot for them. If you have a moment..just NW of Philly? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pretty much anyone east of the CT River in SNE gets over 2" of qpf...to save time for asking how much. Some high 2s in E MA...maybe a weenie 3" spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like there is a 3" QPF dot in MA near NE RI border. the acordian playing snowman from cumberland, ri just ran threw town nude, belting out "A KU is coming , A KU is coming" great news that euro qpf is still very high. I know will mentioned his link for euro qpf wasn't always as specific as another site (the other day) when thunder posted a higher qpf a bit later so , maybe bos is higher end of 2-2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like 2-2.5" inches of qpf for eastern MA this time...not the 3" amounts. Well in THAT case....lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.