SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think we're getting slammed. I tend to agree, this is looking fantastic for our areas, want to stay up for euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think we're getting slammed. looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS are just a shade SE of the BM. west of the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS are just a shade SE of the BM. in regards to op is it West a tad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Off to bed. Fully expecting to wake up to a euro qpf of 1.5-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think we're getting slammed. Yup, in Arlington tonight and almost wish i could stay through the w/e. lol I'll be happy w/ whatever falls E of the Berks. Snow = good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think we're getting slammed. Looking likely. Always good to have some wiggle room and BOS does in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And here's the 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Guys raleighwx is back up for the GEFS at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 rollo that image cuts off in OHIO for me , cant see east of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 in regards to op is it West a tad? It looks very similar to the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Snow not the only issue for Coastal SNE 4 km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The great thing is that everyone not in the "epic" zone still gets solid warning snows all the way to Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 rollo that image cuts off in OHIO for me , cant see east of that You can grab from Alan's site. It's up. Roughly though the 0z OP has Bos to Fall River SE 1.5 to 3" or so, GEFS is 1.25 from around the canal SE to about 2" on the tip of the Cape. Probably some members in there not quite as robust. I didn't see the earlier runs no idea how this compares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve04074 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looking likely. Always good to have some wiggle room and BOS does in this setup. New poster here. And a complete layman (so please be kind!). "ensemble" runs versus "operational" runs, like GEFS vs. GFS: which is more accurate? Or is that not even the right question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 You can grab from Alan's site. It's up. Roughly though the 0z OP has Bos to Fall River SE 1.5 to 3" or so, GEFS is 1.25 from around the canal SE to about 2" on the tip of the Cape. Probably some members in there not quite as robust. I didn't see the earlier runs no idea how this compares. Slight cut back, but not a huge difference between 0z and 18z ensembles(at least for your area) http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Snow not the only issue for Coastal SNE 4 km NAM The 4 km NAM verbatim would absolutely demolish portions of SNE minus Cape Cod perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GGEM also snows most of Saturday. End result is plenty of water. My guess is euro holds serve. I looks to me like: The NAM is the most discrete/finite grid of the 3, with the GGEM 2nd, and the GFS...a bit of a distant 3rd. There is going to be a tremendous amount of complexity in handling this thing during the stream contact/phase, between 48 and 60 hours. It is in that time frame that we see the GFS make a rather abrupt and odd jump - it has a sharp N stream trough with an axis in PA, and a southern stream v-max ripping N some 150 naut mile S of ISP, but then ...curiously, at 60 hours, the two have merged some 300 naut. miles ESE of ACK. That's one hell of a 500mb result given these leads. The GGEM is half way between the GFS and NAM solutions, and interestingly, it is also somewhere in between in its grid. This statement is NOT to emphasize the more impacting solution, merely for being the more impacting. But the NAM, despite it's reputation, is a much more fluid union and may own to having superior convective parameterization schemes, which despite it's tendencies for error, that is true. Personally, it struck me as interesting that the 12z run earlier today had a solution more akin to this 00z; the 18z run appeared to lose a lot of the southern stream component to this, and when it "re"detected that presence in this 00z run, it came back so prodigiously. It tells me there is a transitive continuity there; when then considering the convective discussion points, it's worth considering this GFS run as in somewhat of an error. That all said, it's cold and getting colder folks. That in its self could play a role in this, that isn't related to the GFS' odd mid level center jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here's Will's non hydro Would you mind providing a link to this? Would like to see what it does a few hours earlier. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 4 km WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW through 35 hours. Vast differences in how they handle the moist convection and development of the diabatic anomaly. They accurately depict the sensitivity models have in these types of setups. There will be large wobbles for another 24 hours, at least. No solution is off the table yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 B.I, post more in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 off to bed, I know it's gon' snow friday and that in itself is sweet. hope the overnight runs of Euro and GFS are still wound up and hold serve come the morning becuase in the end the big storms always seem to tick a little closer to the coast when it's go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Would you mind providing a link to this? Would like to see what it does a few hours earlier. Thanks I'm not signed in ATM but it's right on the ncep model page...look for 4km NAM it's the third one down from the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Would you mind providing a link to this? Would like to see what it does a few hours earlier. Thanks http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam-hires_area_param.php?model=nam-hires&cycle=20130207+00+UTC&area=namer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 B.I, post more in here. I am happy to be here for a nor'easter...probably still my favorite synoptic storm (tied with Colorado Lows through the Plains), and I have seen some epics already in AK this winter. Glad something is finally happening after another boring winter. Best storm of the year in AK thus far was a 950 hpa flat trough in confluent flow cyclogenesis event which developed into one of the most photogenic marine cyclones I have seen in years. See image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam-hires_area_param.php?model=nam-hires&cycle=20130207+00+UTC&area=namer Hour 60 is beautiful http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=00ℑ=nam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_060_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Someone mentioned the GGEM earlier. Hard linking the old and new. It is east some, not a huge amount. Picked up 5mb strength in the shunt east. 978mb is the new 0z. These maps are available on the meteocentre website. But it's late, for those looking for the differences, here you go. Hard-linked so they won't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lol, the GGEM has another coastal later in the period that slams the Mid Atlantic/skirts Eastern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am happy to be here for a nor'easter...probably still my favorite synoptic storm (tied with Colorado Lows through the Plains), and I have seen some epics already in AK this winter. Glad something is finally happening after another boring winter. Best storm of the year in AK thus far was a 950 hpa flat trough in confluent flow cyclogenesis event which developed into one of the most photogenic marine cyclones I have seen in years. See image. Yeah, the confluence N of the system forced it to roll into itself, transforming an open wave into a closed one, but when that happens, there is a lot of momentum that has to be conserved, so when it curls in it gets exotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Would you mind providing a link to this? Would like to see what it does a few hours earlier. Thanks Man, if you guys get that then God bless ya. 50mph winds and 2-3"ph snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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