RI Rob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The storm could still be epic, let's just see what the EURO gives us tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For Boston? Yeah I'd do it. I mean, it depends what your own threshold is. The models are going to wobble a lot here in the final 48 hours with the convection in the southern stream. Thanks dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It was only epic on a few clown models/maps. I won't be disappointed if I see less that 20', but I would be a bit let down with 7" or so. Yeah, which is why I brought up Jan '05 earlier. It's worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Go see Ray he needs a man hug. he might have to come south to the good totals muhaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Would love to see euro but I took tylenol pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RGEM 500 mb heights at 48 hours over Lakes looks like it would try to capture the low and keep it close to the coast, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Models will wobble back and forth dramatically with such a vigorous southern stream diabatic anomaly and the deep, moist convection that forms it. IMHO, the NAM/CMC/GFS will wobble more given their convective params than the ECMWF (especially the non-hydro 12 km NAM), and under similar events the past few years the ECMWF was most reliable with respect to moist convection and the related synoptic feedback with vigorous southern stream lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GGEM also snows most of Saturday. End result is plenty of water. My guess is euro holds serve. I am agreeing with your thinking. There is a ton of moisture available with this system and I think this ends up being a very slow moving system which should really help out with higher end totals. As always mesoscale features will be big, especially when it comes down to the axis of higher totals b/c this is looking significant no matter what. So what if this turns out to be 8-16'' instead of 18-24'' or more...considering with what we've dealt with the past winter and a half nobody should be complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, which is why I brought up Jan '05 earlier. It's worth noting. 30"+ in Cambridge and Somerville from that storm yet much less a few miles W or E. The banding was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 One thing I've noticed in these bigger later season events with ageo flow is models often bust warmer. Definitely a good argument for someone near the canal to be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 30"+ in Cambridge and Somerville from that storm yet much less a few miles W or E. The banding was nuts. I was 14. Such an epic night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The storm could still be epic, let's just see what the EURO gives us tonight.. It def could be. Could be just merely a major storm too. People need to keep both options still on the table. I do have a gut feeling that the non-hydrostatic models will handle this the best in the final 48 hours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd be dissapointed with a foot....only because I'm ready for spring...go epic, or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd like a LATE capture to catch Kev, too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It def could be. Could be just merely a major storm too. People need to keep both options still on the table. I do have a gut feeling that the non-hydrostatic models will handle this the best in the final 48 hours here. Which ones are non hydrostatic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It def could be. Could be just merely a major storm too. People need to keep both options still on the table. I do have a gut feeling that the non-hydrostatic models will handle this the best in the final 48 hours here. I guess I was thinking the opposite, especially the NAM 12 km. More interesting to see what the 4 km products suggest. Also the RGEM which is a brand new update to 10 km and is now running non-hydrostatic physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd be dissapointed with a foot....only because I'm ready for spring...go epic, or go home. Agreed, I got my hopes way up with those model runs. Really excited for the EURO tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It def could be. Could be just merely a major storm too. People need to keep both options still on the table. I do have a gut feeling that the non-hydrostatic models will handle this the best in the final 48 hours here. which are the non-hydro models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So what is the meteorolgical reasoning, if any in this set up, that we end up with a tug W in the next 12-24 hours? Could make a big difference for the biggest population centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I was 14. Such an epic night. I was living in Inman Sq in Cambridge and could only see the antanae on my wife's Subaru that morning. That storm rivaled 78 and April Fools for me personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 when are GEFS out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Gotta wonder whether the NAM and EURO are handling the convective situation the best...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I guess I was thinking the opposite, especially the NAM 12 km. More interesting to see what the 4 km products suggest. Also the RGEM which is a brand new update to 10 km and is now running non-hydrostatic physics. Well I recall in the last very dynamic storm with a lot of convection, Jan 12, 2011, the non-hydrostatic models like the NAM/SREF did better. But they have generally been so awful this winter that perhaps they aren't worth trusting. The ECMWF has been the most consistent with this storm thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Gotta wonder whether the NAM and EURO are handling the convective situation the best...... This is just my personal opinion, but the NAM is just way too sensitive to moist convection over the Gulf Stream. It is likely a multitude of factors, but it was tuned more for severe convection over land. Not sure if it is the BL air-sea fluxes combined with the 12 km non-hydrostatic physics running convective params...but it always seemed much too sensitive to deep convection in these events. dtk would know much more even thought he doesn't work on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS are just a shade SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 when are GEFS out They're out now. No change qpf wise for our area. Overall similar to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NCEP diagnostic THE 00Z NAMAND 12Z ECMWF TUCK IN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND A POWERFUL DEFORMATIONZONE CLOSER IN TO NEW ENGLAND VS THE 12Z UKMET/GEM GLOBAL SOLNSAND NOW THE 00Z GFS WHICH ARE A TAD FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE TRENDON THE GFS TO SHIFT THE LOW TRACK A BIT TO THE RIGHT...WILL FAVORA ECMWF/GFS BLEND WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS are just a shade SE of the BM. I think we're getting slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Here's Will's non hydro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well I recall in the last very dynamic storm with a lot of convection, Jan 12, 2011, the non-hydrostatic models like the NAM/SREF did better. But they have generally been so awful this winter that perhaps they aren't worth trusting. The ECMWF has been the most consistent with this storm thus far. True, but correct me if I am wrong, but that was mainly a Miller B type event, this is a true Hybrid bordering on a Miller A with a very well defined southern stream diabatic anomaly...I think this system will have much more vigorous DMC than the aforementioned event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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