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Feb 8th-9th Potential Blizzard


dryslot

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This post is nonsense ... The 36 hour differences between this run and the 12z's 48 hour are almost meaningless.   wow is right.

 

People, we need moderation in here  haha.    

 

It's almost as though people took a few model cycles and got entitled, spun them selves up - 

there were enough model cycles to make box okx and alb all rather bullish and they tend to generally be conservative.

i tend to be very skeptical, esp living here in spfd but i did start to think a foot to a foot in a half of snow was a decent shot.

i never bought anything over 20 inches, heck the 78 storm couldnt get that done here and look what a monster that was with a track closer than what is being advertised here

 

the only storm i know of to clobber this area was the 1888 storm which is prob a one in five hundred year event.

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Will be interesting to see if the Euro holds.

 

If it holds then we will be fine.

i'll start with the 0z GEFS . the gfs is a solid model, and unless there is convective feedback issues, i would hope it is a tick or so west of OP.

 

When do 0z gefs come out, i still think ens are within their useful period (barely)

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I'm good if I see a foot or so. After that, it's all icing on the cake. The fact that some models have been showing 4-5' at times makes people a bit crazy. Just a bit.

 

1-2 feet is the expectation that NWS has set for much of the region. The 3 foot totals are fun to look at, but we need more evidence to take them seriously.

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There is gonna be a sucker zone somewhere between the old primary and the coastal. Best candidates right now ENY below Albany down to NYC.  < 6" in that zone probably.

The GGEM at 12z was further west by quite a bit versus tonights 0z RGEM, I'm not sure what he's talking about there.  It's really not that close, it's further east.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=048

 

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=054&fixhh=1&hh=060

 

Even RGEM to RGEM it's further SE from even the 18z.  It's 4 for 4 so far on the later phase.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNM&hh2=042&fixhh=1&hh=048

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=042

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Yeah I'm just not sure (any of us) do the public favors by tight ranges and deterministic forecasts at the "watch" phase. 

 

I agree. At least in discussion with media and EMs today it was all in reference to 6+ and 12+. But within 3 days, whether through the zones, P&C, etc. those totals get out.

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