N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the gfs is about 20-30" here IMO you may be in a increasingly better spot if my concerns are correct. looking forward to 0z gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm actually chuckling about this situation. Here we are, some of us with Blizzard Watches over our heads, and the 0z models throw us a curveball. Mets from the NWS to local media give us 1-2 feet of snow to have it cut in half in some cases. And poor BOX is really screwed now with their 18-24" over almost the whole CWA. The NAM just gave me 40 inches of snow, what other 0 Z runs are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And nobody even wants to talk about the 0z Hi-res run of the NAM. That was an epic run tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 72 hour GFS qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So nobody even feels there could be convective feedback in the models tonight? Seriously have you not seen the radar down south tonight? This thing looks very convective. Yeah there certainly could be, especially with those models (hmm...RPM, NAM) that have ridiculous amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is downright awful. Wow. northern stream is weak as hell... This post is nonsense ... The 36 hour differences between this run and the 12z's 48 hour are almost meaningless. wow is right. People, we need moderation in here haha. It's almost as though people took a few model cycles and got entitled, spun them selves up - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well it really did make a huge difference here. Boston still looks to get destroyed though, and I don't think much will prevent that from happening. ya the gfs is just not being consistent at all.. went from 20-40" over all of western CT.. to 8-12" in the matter of 6 hours.. crazy.. disconcerning.. lets see what the EURO has to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 WOW the bridge jumping here is unbelievable, relax people. It's like overreacting to a wobble in a hurricane, just one small piece...relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This post is nonsense ... The 36 hour differences between this run and the 12z's 48 hour are almost meaningless. wow is right. People, we need moderation in here haha. It's almost as though people took a few model cycles and got entitled, spun them selves up - I was talking about in terms of sfc reflection in NNE and making an ob. Jeez Chill out dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Where are these folks in CT getting .2 QPF from the GFS? Gosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Righteous 8-12 on the GFS for out here. Glad I rushed home to see that! lol Off to bed momentarily. Hopefully the rest of the suite doesn't suck and the 06 look is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Model huggers galore jumping ship. All you need to do is open a tab and pull up satellite and your fears will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's a red flag for prolific totals. But an interesting trend for cape. This is an eastern mass centered event prolific or not. The changes of less than a foot over eastern areas are pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Where are these folks in CT getting .2 QPF from the GFS? Gosh Idk if that was directed at me, but I'm in VT? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah it's a very dynamic system. Convection is going to give the models fits lol. We may have to watch the non-hydrostatic meso models carefully here. We saw this in Jan 12, 2011 and also the October snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Still a solid 12-18" for me, but hopefully Harvey talks me off the bridge. He still has his old map out, but already seems to be leaning to more snow on the cape.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I disagree with whoever said RGEM is east, it looks real good to me. Its east of 18z...but still very amped. 18z was just mega-amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Model huggers galore jumping ship. All you need to do is open a tab and pull up satellite and your fears will be gone. It's the phase that is concerning. The primary seems to hold on longer, and a late transfer leads to less snow for all except the providence/boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Screwed as usual, I'm still thinking a solid 15-20 for the CT river valley and there is that stripe right up the river valley as usual 15 to 20 was the most i thought we could get here anyways, maybe more towards bdl and hfd but for spfd mid to upper teens would have been the max i had thought was quite possible...well until recently i hope i am so wrong but i feel like this has March 2001 written all over it and frankly jan 2005 wasnt much better in these parts but the obscene totals in that one were forecasted right up to start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I really would suggest to tone down the disaster. The H7-H5 VVs are nuts in ern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We may have to watch the non-hydrostatic meso models carefully here. We saw this in Jan 12, 2011 and also the October snow bomb. Is the NAM Hi-Res that runs out to 60 hours a non-hydro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pete mentioned my city by name when talking about where the possible isolated close to 30" totals set up. This pleases me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 sums it up.. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi GFS east, RGEM now further west. Nam with 30 inches BOS pvd.. never a dull moment eh? pic.twitter.com/n4TFpfI9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This situation reminds me of Dec. 26-27 2010... Blizzard Watches were issued, most Boston TV forecasts were for about 2 feet. We ended up with 14.5" in Atkinson, Logan had 18.2" (at the time it was the 10th biggest storm on record -- not sure if that still stands). Just sayin', it's happened before, can't discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's all so typical and predictable. When someone gets 12" instead of 30" they will deem in a failure...even though no sensible met ever Forecast those extreme amounts. People, Rollo ...etc... These are not red flags really. No one has "spiked footballs" this early; the conversation has been primarliy around what the NAM has shown at 00z - I don't think anyone is actually planning on 34" of snow. The 18z NAM wobbled, then came back. Why can't the GFS do the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I really would suggest to tone down the disaster. The H7-H5 VVs are nuts in ern MA. Yeah deformation delight on that...that's the MPM band when he isworried about qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hopefully the GFS has just gone from one extreme to the other. Somewhere in between the 18z and 0z would be a significant storm for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still good .. that's a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah deformation delight on that...that's the MPM band when he isworried about qpf. Yeah--but I need that band out here. Even in the worst scenario, I think we all get decent warning criteria in the hinterlands and the Boston/PVD metro still rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still good .. that's a lot of snow. Some people want 30" on every run, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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