OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Further evidence of the banding potential for this storm. Pay attention to the orientation of the yellow dashed lines, that's deformation at 700 mb. Just to the cold side of that maximum, within the area of strongest frontogenesis will be the most favorable area for a strong deformation band. This just rots over this area for 12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Devil Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://www.fcc.gov/guides/commercial-mobile-alert-system-cmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 15z SREF for PSF ... MBP3 ... that's 22.42" in 3 hours LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I miss the old NWS "Heavy Snow Warnings" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 BOX going 2-3' for all of their jackpot zone (>24") on the map. Unbelievable. Mentions drifts to 5' but I would expect larger drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think most models are overdoing the mid level warmth with a track on the east side of Nantucket, MA. Changeover will happen quicker and we go to all snow quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:35 PM, OceanStWx said: ECMWF1.jpg Further evidence of the banding potential for this storm. Pay attention to the orientation of the yellow dashed lines, that's deformation at 700 mb. Just to the cold side of that maximum, within the area of strongest frontogenesis will be the most favorable area for a strong deformation band. This just rots over this area for 12 hours or so. Looks good for this area I think but gosh that's a lava lamp short of an acid trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is about 20 miles west at hr 27. Maybe a touch slower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:38 PM, radarMan said: Looks good for this area I think but gosh that's a lava lamp short of an acid trip. Next frame really sharpens that gradient, but it holds through central Mass up through NH and the foothills of ME. All the guidance shows this signal too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I live in Harwich, MA. I know we will mix with rain and it will be an issue, just how much could really impact our snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:33 PM, Rollo Tomasi said: Mixing or even plain rain is still a potential issue/is going to happen for some of us in the CP down this way. Too early to tell much. you're fine. whether you get 12 or 30"...just hope you still have a roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 8:31 PM, CoastalWx said: There will be huge banding on the NW side. That's a given. On 2/7/2013 at 8:41 PM, CoastalWx said: 3"near Bob and up close to BOS. For those out west with less QPF, banding from heaven. With that in mind, I'm really curious about the BOX map. I'm going to toss it based on things Mitch and Mike have posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS still not getting prolific like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:45 PM, moneypitmike said: With that in mind, I'm really curious about the BOX map. I'm going to toss it based on things Mitch and Mike have posted. qpf worries out there in the boondocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:46 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS still not getting prolific like the euro Not buying into the big qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:46 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS still not getting prolific like the euro Yeah it's awfully far southeast with those mid level lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i think the area from about Scooter's folks....maybe a bit north of there...right on the shore, SE to the Cape/MVY/ACK are fooked power outage-wise. i don't really see what's going to save this area from that other than the 12z NAM running the low into CCWXAIRFORCE's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 wait what does this have Boston at? On 2/7/2013 at 9:42 PM, bboughton said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS has been last to the party the whole time. Adding more confusion right up until the very end lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:49 PM, RI Rob said: wait what does this have Boston at? Not buying that ktol snowhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 7:34 PM, sbos_wx said: About to hit 95 north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS literally is half the euro QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:52 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS literally is half the euro QPF. lol I know. It bumped NW a little bit from 12z particularly around NYC and W CT. But it's still not prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charleskoz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm jealous of you eastern NE guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:42 PM, bboughton said: Just curious as to what causes that lower (pink colored) needle of snow forecasted from Hartford up to the NH (New Hampshire, not New Haven)border, sandwiched between the lighter pink, heavier snow fall forecasted on either side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:52 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS literally is half the euro QPF. I don't think we can toss the GFS at all. With those mid level low tracks that's the type of precip you'd expect to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:52 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS literally is half the euro QPF. Epic storm bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:44 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: you're fine. whether you get 12 or 30"...just hope you still have a roof. Heh, my poor neighbors just had it replaced AGAIN. Now it'll get ripped off from the other direction. Those SW winds a few weeks back stripped parts to bare wood. This one is going to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On 2/7/2013 at 9:55 PM, CT Rain said: I don't think we can toss the GFS at all. With those mid level low tracks that's the type of precip you'd expect to see. I think those GFS tracks are fairly unlikely. I would trust most of the other guidance (particularly the Euro) to handle this almost mesoscale phase more correctly than the GFS. But the GFS does show that its not a total slam dunk to get a uber wrapped up west solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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