dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Got another analysis thread started before the 0z runs come out, Need to keep the juju going, Good luck all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I mean bomb ba da bomb ba da bomb ba da bomb about sums things up. obvisously there is still room for this to come a bit east, so watching 0z runs tonite, is definitely nail biting for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks beautiful on the radar already. This thing is really cranking in the Gulf right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nice look on WV http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim16wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is freaking insane! for BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 A little play by play of current analysis as we wait for the 21z SREFS and then the 00z suite to come in. Our two players are both on the board now. Our southern piece looks rather nice moving through northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma. Has been firing showers and storms all day today. Our northern piece is now moving into Southern Montana and Northern Wyoming. This piece appears to be on its way to digging through the midwest. Actually looks like it has a southerly component to its track already. Things still look great. This is going to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't think it's an issue of not having an extreme storm. It's just whether or not a lot of us get 12-15 vs 18+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 I don't think it's an issue of not having an extreme storm. It's just whether or not a lot of us get 12-15 vs 18+ If only we had the answer to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The more I look at this the more I think I'll probably head back to ORH tomorrow...Plymouth might get 14" but honestly...ORH could get 20-24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 The more I look at this the more I think I'll probably head back to ORH tomorrow...Plymouth might get 14" but honestly...ORH could get 20-24". I don't think you will regret that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nice map http://wxedge.com/articles/20130206quincys_snowfall_forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I suspect Kevin wants to toss the Noyes map. It only has him, most of CT along with western Mass outside of Berkshire County (that line is badly drawn imo) in the 12-18 range. I doubt this will beat October 2011 for me, but should be the best once since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The more I look at this the more I think I'll probably head back to ORH tomorrow...Plymouth might get 14" but honestly...ORH could get 20-24". yeah man I defintely would .. Im going back tmrw from lowell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nice map http://wxedge.com/articles/20130206quincys_snowfall_forecast You'll be dreaming of that one tonight, I think. You are in a pretty good spot for this....not for the jackpot but certainly for being on the higher end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yeah man I defintely would .. Im going back tmrw from lowell All my friends up here are telling me to stay haha...and I do have two classes that might not be cancelled. I want to experience it at home though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If tonight and tomorrow's runs look as solid as they do now I am definitely going with a major swath of 18-24'' of snow along with a small area of 24-30''+ somewhere. It's one thing to have some hefty QPF totals (1.5''+) but it's another to have them with ratios possibly as high as 15:1 and the vigorous lift we're looking at. I suspect we see the heaviest banding (3-4''/HR totals) setting up somewhere for a solid 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The more I look at this the more I think I'll probably head back to ORH tomorrow...Plymouth might get 14" but honestly...ORH could get 20-24". That would be a wise decision. ORH is always a good spot to be in, but especially for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Number 1 CIPS cold season analog for the 72 hr 12z GFS is January, 2005. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Number 1 CIPS cold season analog for the 72 hr 12z GFS is January, 2005. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg= Was just talking about January 2005 on the phone with someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Was just talking about January 2005 on the phone with someone. While the northern stream H5 trough was quite a bit deeper initially with that storm, the end result was rather similar to what some guidance is showing...as, of course, are some of the projected snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I have no idea how the ratios might play out across the region. Any ideas for different regions would be welcome. I'd like to think that dynamics causing good qpf (whole region) would lend to decent ratios outside of arras with temp issues. But I really don't know how the qpf plays into quality if snow growth. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 While the H5 trough was quite a bit deeper initially with that storm, the end result was rather similar to what some guidance is showing...as, of course, are some of the projected snowfall amounts. Not to mention the wind potential, especially along the Cape. We're talking about the potential for some very serious winds here, which could rival Sandy or perhaps even slightly exceed there...and that is significant given the fact we will have much more precipitation here, and in this case snowfall and a significant amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not to mention the wind potential, especially along the Cape. We're talking about the potential for some very serious winds here, which could rival Sandy or perhaps even slightly exceed there...and that is significant given the fact we will have much more precipitation here, and in this case snowfall and a significant amount. New moon, Astronomical High tides as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not to mention the wind potential, especially along the Cape. We're talking about the potential for some very serious winds here, which could rival Sandy or perhaps even slightly exceed there...and that is significant given the fact we will have much more precipitation here, and in this case snowfall and a significant amount. Oh yeah, if some of these verbatims verify (which is becoming more and more likely, tbh), this is a blizzard of pretty epic proportions for a large chunk of SNE, without a doubt, with potentially significant storm surge/coastal flooding/erosion due to the tidal cycle and very strong/persistent winds (remind you of anything?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 New moon, High tides as well Yeah the coastal flooding aspect of this will be pretty significant as well. This storm is going to have virtually every impact except severe wx lol. But yeah...coastal flooding/erosion will be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 [i was in Maine then. Dud that storm have ad great a reach across sne ad this one? I thought it was primaril east of ct river. quote name=andyhb" post="2081452" timestamp="1360199521] While the northern stream H5 trough was quite a bit deeper initially with that storm, the end result was rather similar to what some guidance is showing...as, of course, are some of the projected snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I have no idea how the ratios might play out across the region. Any ideas for different regions would be welcome. I'd like to think that dynamics causing good qpf (whole region) would lend to decent ratios outside of arras with temp issues. But I really don't know how the qpf plays into quality if snow growth. Opinions? At least up this way, the CAR snow algorithm was favoring 15 or 20 to 1. Assume it wouldn't be all that different for your area. There is just so much that plays into it though. For every positive in the snow ratio department, you have things like compaction and wind fracturing that will ultimately cut down on the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 [i was in Maine then. Dud that storm have ad great a reach across sne ad this one? I thought it was primaril east of ct river. Snowfall totals for some areas, especially Central/Eastern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Oh yeah, if some of these verbatims verify (which is becoming more and more likely, tbh), this is a blizzard of pretty epic proportions for a large chunk of SNE, without a doubt. The wind products are very, very impressive. Looking at a several hour period of at least sustained 35-50 knots for at least eastern SNE with gusts exceeding hurricane force winds as well. Still uncertain as to how far inland the wind threat will be but given the potential for a large pressure gradient region wide I would think at least 25-35 mph sustained for much of the interior with gusts exceeding 45-55 mph. snow drifts will be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The wind products are very, very impressive. Looking at a several hour period of at least sustained 35-50 knots for at least eastern SNE with gusts exceeding hurricane force winds as well. Still uncertain as to how far inland the wind threat will be but given the potential for a large pressure gradient region wide I would think at least 25-35 mph sustained for much of the interior with gusts exceeding 45-55 mph. snow drifts will be impressive. I know that the hurricane force wind warning had seas to 30-35 ft from BOX. It will be hell out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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