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Feb 8th-9th Potential Blizzard


dryslot

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A little play by play of current analysis as we wait for the 21z SREFS and then the 00z suite to come in.

 

Our two players are both on the board now.  Our southern piece looks rather nice moving through northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma.  Has been firing showers and storms all day today.

 

Our northern piece is now moving into Southern Montana and Northern Wyoming.  This piece appears to be on its way to digging through the midwest.  Actually looks like it has a southerly component to its track already.

 

Things still look great.  

 

This is going to be fun.

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If tonight and tomorrow's runs look as solid as they do now I am definitely going with a major swath of 18-24'' of snow along with a small area of 24-30''+ somewhere.  It's one thing to have some hefty QPF totals (1.5''+) but it's another to have them with ratios possibly as high as 15:1 and the vigorous lift we're looking at.  I suspect we see the heaviest banding (3-4''/HR totals) setting up somewhere for a solid 3-4 hours.

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Was just talking about January 2005 on the phone with someone.  

 

While the northern stream H5 trough was quite a bit deeper initially with that storm, the end result was rather similar to what some guidance is showing...as, of course, are some of the projected snowfall amounts.

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I have no idea how the ratios might play out across the region. Any ideas for different regions would be welcome. I'd like to think that dynamics causing good qpf (whole region) would lend to decent ratios outside of arras with temp issues. But I really don't know how the qpf plays into quality if snow growth. Opinions?

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While the H5 trough was quite a bit deeper initially with that storm, the end result was rather similar to what some guidance is showing...as, of course, are some of the projected snowfall amounts.

 

Not to mention the wind potential, especially along the Cape.  We're talking about the potential for some very serious winds here, which could rival Sandy or perhaps even slightly exceed there...and that is significant given the fact we will have much more precipitation here, and in this case snowfall and a significant amount.  

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Not to mention the wind potential, especially along the Cape.  We're talking about the potential for some very serious winds here, which could rival Sandy or perhaps even slightly exceed there...and that is significant given the fact we will have much more precipitation here, and in this case snowfall and a significant amount.  

 

 

New moon, Astronomical High tides as well

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Not to mention the wind potential, especially along the Cape.  We're talking about the potential for some very serious winds here, which could rival Sandy or perhaps even slightly exceed there...and that is significant given the fact we will have much more precipitation here, and in this case snowfall and a significant amount.  

 

Oh yeah, if some of these verbatims verify (which is becoming more and more likely, tbh), this is a blizzard of pretty epic proportions for a large chunk of SNE, without a doubt, with potentially significant storm surge/coastal flooding/erosion due to the tidal cycle and very strong/persistent winds (remind you of anything?).

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[i was in Maine then. Dud that storm have ad great a reach across sne ad this one? I thought it was primaril east of ct river.

quote name=andyhb" post="2081452" timestamp="1360199521]

While the northern stream H5 trough was quite a bit deeper initially with that storm, the end result was rather similar to what some guidance is showing...as, of course, are some of the projected snowfall amounts.

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I have no idea how the ratios might play out across the region. Any ideas for different regions would be welcome. I'd like to think that dynamics causing good qpf (whole region) would lend to decent ratios outside of arras with temp issues. But I really don't know how the qpf plays into quality if snow growth. Opinions?

 

 

At least up this way, the CAR snow algorithm was favoring 15 or 20 to 1. Assume it wouldn't be all that different for your area. There is just so much that plays into it though. For every positive in the snow ratio department, you have things like compaction and wind fracturing that will ultimately cut down on the amounts.

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Oh yeah, if some of these verbatims verify (which is becoming more and more likely, tbh), this is a blizzard of pretty epic proportions for a large chunk of SNE, without a doubt.

 

 

The wind products are very, very impressive.  Looking at a several hour period of at least sustained 35-50 knots for at least eastern SNE with gusts exceeding hurricane force winds as well.  Still uncertain as to how far inland the wind threat will be but given the potential for a large pressure gradient region wide I would think at least 25-35 mph sustained for much of the interior with gusts exceeding 45-55 mph.  

 

snow drifts will be impressive.

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The wind products are very, very impressive.  Looking at a several hour period of at least sustained 35-50 knots for at least eastern SNE with gusts exceeding hurricane force winds as well.  Still uncertain as to how far inland the wind threat will be but given the potential for a large pressure gradient region wide I would think at least 25-35 mph sustained for much of the interior with gusts exceeding 45-55 mph.  

 

snow drifts will be impressive.

 

I know that the hurricane force wind warning had seas to 30-35 ft from BOX. It will be hell out there.

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