Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm curious if that has to do with how the GFS/GEFS handle convection versus the NAM, Euro and SREFs. I would think yes, but we'll know come verification time. It might. But it's also probably good to keep in mind that the NAM is a little whacky, the SREF's have been horrible this year, and the GFS on the other hand has been pretty good. I just plain don't understand the late explosion just after the min-loop on the Euro... possible, but not a feature to bank on. I feel like for widespread 2 foot-plus amounts, you need the longer duration of heavy stuff that the GFS just isn't showing. I'm not saying it's right, but that it should at least be given a good amount of weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Product of their further east track...but its coming back west again. If you recall when the GFS had a further west track yesterday, it was spitting out the 2.5" qpf totals. Yes, but also you just don't see those one or two explosive frames that the Euro and NAM have been hinting at for Saturday when the GFS seems to wind things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 yea I'm currently stationed in a motel on Marlboro, big parking lot, should be fun to watch I'm so excited to be part of this Seriously, for a truly unique experience you should go to Boston. I mean what the hell are you going to do in Marlboro besides say yup that's a sh*tload of snow all right. A walk around downtown ripping horizontally is something you'll always remember OTOH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes, but also you just don't see those one or two explosive frames that the Euro and NAM have been hinting at for Saturday when the GFS seems to wind things down. The GFS and other similar solutions like the GGEM are not really deepening the 5h low as rapidly as the Euro and some of the meso models. I would prob lean prettty heavily on the Euro in this setup as it is a very nice compromise between the non-hydrostatic, uber hi res models and the lower res global models. Euro has a hi res, but also some ability to be more consistent than a hi res NAM. The phase is quite mesoscale in nature and not a larger scale phase like we might normally see in a big storm...so I do have some skepticism in leaning too hard on the globals minus the Euro in this setup. That said, I also wouldn't go around forecasting 45 inches of snow based on some of these NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Seriously, for a truly unique experience you should go to Boston. I mean what the hell are you going to do in Marlboro besides say yup that's a sh*tload of snow all right. A walk around downtown ripping horizontally is something you'll always remember OTOH True, I mean how big of a difference in winds am I realistically looking at being in Marlboro instead of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's uncanny how the folks in GC always are convinced that they'll be on the outside looking in for these huge bombs yet always manage to get completely owned by deform bands. Every single time the GC folks are so nervous about every shift and tickle left or right but inevitably they get the deform. Maybe this will be the storm that the deform just misses them to the east but I highly doubt it lol. How they forget how far west some of these set up as they bank up against the foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 True, I mean how big of a difference in winds am I realistically looking at being in Marlboro instead of Boston Are you on Rt 20 near 495 there? Thats kind of up on a hill. You'll prob get pretty good winds there. Right on the water in BOS would prob see stuff that is 20mph harder, but downtown maybe would see 10-15mph higher winds? Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 So who gets the subsidence zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 They are trending higher over the E areas. Wouldn't wanna live on the Rehoboth back roads off 44, trees will be down, no power feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yea I'm right off 495 and on Lakeside Avenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's uncanny how the folks in GC always are convinced that they'll be on the outside looking in for these huge bombs yet always manage to get completely owned by deform bands. Every single time the GC folks are so nervous about every shift and tickle left or right but inevitably they get the deform. Maybe this will be the storm that the deform just misses them to the east but I highly doubt it lol. They got whiffed in November...also in the Dec '09 storm. Nobdy in SNE is getting shutout though in this. That has been obvious for days now, despite MPM's QPF fear fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The GFS and other similar solutions like the GGEM are not really deepening the 5h low as rapidly as the Euro and some of the meso models. I would prob lean prettty heavily on the Euro in this setup as it is a very nice compromise between the non-hydrostatic, uber hi res models and the lower res global models. Euro has a hi res, but also some ability to be more consistent than a hi res NAM. The phase is quite mesoscale in nature and not a larger scale phase like we might normally see in a big storm...so I do have some skepticism in leaning too hard on the globals minus the Euro in this setup. That said, I also wouldn't go around forecasting 45 inches of snow based on some of these NAM runs. There have been enough runs on enough models of 3+qpf, that if I were forecasting I might say a general 15-30 inch snow storm with isolated amounts around 3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daninline Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wouldn't wanna live on the Rehoboth back roads off 44, trees will be down, no power feet of snow. I know someone who lives there and thinks this is a big joke.... I'll wait for him to cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 clskinsfan, You still headed here to Marlboro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wouldn't wanna live on the Rehoboth back roads off 44, trees will be down, no power feet of snow. Seems like Rehoboth roads are always a disaster after every severe weather event....Flooding, bridges out, trees, power lines. Don't know what it is about that town. Every town has trees and bridges, yet theirs always seems to get hit worse. Their cops sure do love to set up speed traps on 44 though....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Are you on Rt 20 near 495 there? Thats kind of up on a hill. You'll prob get pretty good winds there. Right on the water in BOS would prob see stuff that is 20mph harder, but downtown maybe would see 10-15mph higher winds? Not sure. Who wants to come to Top of the Hub with me for drinks?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the gfs always looked odd with this system. seeing the euro and its ensemble mean come west last night sealed it for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Who wants to come to Top of the Hub with me for drinks?! Is that far from me on Rt 20? I have no clue where I am lol, but I'd possibly come out 2night for a pre-storm pregame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 E MA is going to make up for lost time after getting porked the past couple of seasons....wow. Crazy year....earthquake, cane, now epic blizzard...only in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sorry for the OT but with all the blizzard talk I'm wondering how does the pattern look going ahead? Warm up? Snow chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 E MA is going to make up for lost time after getting porked the past couple of seasons....wow.Crazy year....earthquake, cane, now epic blizzard...only in sne. If this beast delivers anywhere close to how it's modeled this absolutely makes up for our snow hell we've been in. This region rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 the gfs always looked odd with this system. seeing the euro and its ensemble mean come west last night sealed it for me Yup. I think the NAM is off it's rocker to a degree but it's not too far off from the Euro in the SE MA area wrt to qpf. I think the GFS qpf totals will bump up this afternoon/evening runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is that far from me on Rt 20? I have no clue where I am lol, but I'd possibly come out 2night for a pre-storm pregame. Top of the Hub is on the 52nd floor of the prudential tower in the Back Bay area of Boston. I wouldn't be going there tonight. It would be tomorrow night if I made the trek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Charge up the cameras! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So pumped, will be charging up the phone and cameras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 would you think the governors would declare a state of emergency for any of the states in southern New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Lets rock wooohooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how does CON look for precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is that far from me on Rt 20? I have no clue where I am lol, but I'd possibly come out 2night for a pre-storm pregame. Good luck to you from Philly forum. I think think you're about to have the experience of a lifetime. Almost left yesterday, but my wife talked me out of it. Will be looking forward to your reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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