ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here is total GGEM QPF...how much of this is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here is total GGEM QPF...how much of this is snow? 1-1.25" of liquid and all of that is suppose to be Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When does the Euro Control come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1-1.25" of liquid and all of that is suppose to be Snow. That is so not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1-1.25" of liquid and all of that is suppose to be Snow. No it isn't. I think whatever most of us receive outside of the developing coastal low will be rain or slush unless you're well inland. The initial shot of precip will be dependent on the primary low, and it will bring with it warming at the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1-1.25" of liquid and all of that is suppose to be Snow. i know how to convert mm to inches... and im fairly certain its not all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When does the Euro Control come out? Who cares. It's just a pipe dream run, probably will show a ridiculous storm as if we were Boston. It is ironicwe were so worried about the nrn s/w and it end up being the srn that messes it up for us on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Anyone get a Euro snowfall total for boston on this run yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 No it isn't. I think whatever most of us receive outside of the developing coastal low will be rain or slush unless you're well inland. The initial shot of precip will be dependent on the primary low, and it will bring with it warming at the low levels. and I assume all models show this... unless there is a much earlier phase this is going to be like xmas 2002...some lucky areas in the immediate NYC area will see 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That is so not right. Remember what SnowGoose69 said? GGEM warm bias in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i know how to convert mm to inches... and im fairly certain its not all snow. Do you guys even see the previous post? Don't take the P-Types seriously from the GGEM when there's a 1046 mB HP over SSE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Who cares. It's just a pipe dream run, probably will show a ridiculous storm as if we wIts still no s Its still not set in stone, we have to keep an eye out for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here is total GGEM QPF...how much of this is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What you don't want to see is that southern stream wave continue to trend weaker. If that happens, we're going to be in trouble. Right now we're still in good shape for a solid warning criteria snowfall and I would expect winter storm watches with the afternoon package for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 and I assume all models show this... unless there is a much earlier phase this is going to be like xmas 2002...some lucky areas in the immediate NYC area will see 4-7" The progressivity of the pattern is still worrisome to me, and if anything screws it it will be the lack of any mechanism to slow the pattern down in time for us. The model agreement on at least a decent solution for us is encouraging, but the Euro backed off a little more than I would have liked. It doesn't have to much more before the phase is too late for people outside of CT. I do think the GFS was too warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What you don't want to see is that southern stream wave continue to trend weaker. If that happens, we're going to be in trouble. Right now we're still in good shape for a solid warning criteria snowfall and I would expect winter storm watches with the afternoon package for sure. The northern stream actually dug more and did more of the work. If that wave were the same strength as prior runs, it would have been even less of a solution for us. The faster flow also caused more separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Do you guys even listen? Don't take the P-Types seriously from the GGEM when there's a 1046 mB HP over SSE Canada. my man - every single model shows the same thing, and now, even the EC, show a later phase, not a particularly great combo for us...the 1040hP cell in QUE means nothing with a closed h8 low in western NYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here is total GGEM QPF...how much of this is snow? warm bias.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i looks like everyone north of m/d line gets some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Something that might be getting overlooked is the freezing rain threat. HPC has a moderate risk of greater than 0.10" of ice for a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The progressivity of the pattern is still worrisome to me, and if anything screws it it will be the lack of any mechanism to slow the pattern down in time for us. The model agreement on at least a decent solution for us is encouraging, but the Euro backed off a little more than I would have liked. It doesn't have to much more before the phase is too late for people outside of CT. I do think the GFS was too warm though. yeah, this. I hope the EC doesnt take it that one step further...or slower with the northern stream (faster southern stream) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The northern stream actually dug more and did more of the work. If that wave were the same strength as prior runs, it would have been even less of a solution for us. The faster flow also caused more separation. Right, you want the northern stream to dig more and meet up with the strong southern stream wave like the 12z run showed yesterday. When that happens, she goes boom much further SW. The reason she blows up is because of the phase, if you lose that, you lose your big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What you don't want to see is that southern stream wave continue to trend weaker. If that happens, we're going to be in trouble. Right now we're still in good shape for a solid warning criteria snowfall and I would expect winter storm watches with the afternoon package for sure. I'd say confidence is too low for Upton to issue any watches at this point. They'll probably want to wait for tonight and tomorrow morning's models first. Mt Holly could go with watches for the poconos/NW NJ however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 From a timing stand point overall based on blend of the 12z runs Snow should start between 1AM and 3AM Fri morning. Snow changes to rain between 5AM and 7AM. Rain back to snow Fri afternoon (between 2PM and 5PM) .. Heaviest snows fri evening (between 7PM and 4 AM) Snow ends Sat morning by 7AM. At this time blend of latest guidance about 0.75 - 1.25 liq snowfall projections 3-6/4 -8 from about Trenton to Woodbridge 4-8/6-10 N-NJ into NYC (higher as you head east) 6 - 12 LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'd say confidence is too low for Upton to issue any watches at this point. They'll probably want to wait for tonight and tomorrow morning's models first. Mt Holly could go with watches for the poconos/NW NJ however. Upton can go with watches areawide.. They can always downgrade the city/coast to advisories if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'd say confidence is too low for Upton to issue any watches at this point. They'll probably want to wait for tonight and tomorrow morning's models first. Mt Holly could go with watches for the poconos/NW NJ however. C'mon dude, they will go with watches area wide. If anything Mt. Holly would be cautious because north west sections will probably see the least amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton can go with watches areawide.. They can always downgrade the city/coast to advisories if need be. For up here at least watches are coming this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton can go with watches areawide.. They can always downgrade the city/coast to advisories if need be. I would be shocked if Upton didn't issue watches area wide, and I would think Mt. Holly will also issue watches for its northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The progressivity of the pattern is still worrisome to me, and if anything screws it it will be the lack of any mechanism to slow the pattern down in time for us. The model agreement on at least a decent solution for us is encouraging, but the Euro backed off a little more than I would have liked. It doesn't have to much more before the phase is too late for people outside of CT. I do think the GFS was too warm though. We were able to close off soon enough for the early November storm, but everything since then has just been a little progressive for the best results here. I can remember the late December storm really blooming over New England. Hopefully, we don't get a 12z day of storm precip shift east like that one. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm12292012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Was just in a webinar with Upton, they said "likely" to issue winter storm watches for the area with the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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