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February 8th Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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Close to 1.50 of liquid on euro for NYC. More then half I would think is snow. More on Long Island

 

 

Not a bad run at all. But I was expecting the Euro to cut snow amounts by 25%, not by 50%. 

 

Looks like perhaps 7-10" for NYC, a perhaps a tad less for western suburbs, 8-12" for Nassau County and 12-18" for E LI based on a quick glance. 

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Not a bad run at all. But I was expecting the Euro to cut snow amounts by 25%, not by 50%. 

 

Looks like perhaps 7-10" for NYC, a perhaps a tad less for western suburbs, 8-12" for Nassau County and 12-18" for E LI based on a quick glance. 

Yeh and with wind out on LI

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Not a bad run at all. But I was expecting the Euro to cut snow amounts by 25%, not by 50%.

Looks like perhaps 7-10" for NYC, a perhaps a tad less for western suburbs, 8-12" for Nassau County and 12-18" for E LI based on a quick glance.

Yeah I'm happy with the run, just would hate to see amounts cut as we go forward. This run looks a lot like 00z euro ens. Orhwx was correct in saying he felt the phase happen to early in this pattern.

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Not a bad run at all. But I was expecting the Euro to cut snow amounts by 25%, not by 50%. 

 

Looks like perhaps 7-10" for NYC, a perhaps a tad less for western suburbs, 8-12" for Nassau County and 12-18" for E LI based on a quick glance. 

Believable though, given the progressive tendencies this winter. This is still one that can definitely escape most of us. Any further east or a later phase and we're looking at the glorified cold front again. If we had any kind of blocking regime in place I'd be honking like crazy.

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A little slower on the Phase than the same map from yesterday.

 

attachicon.gif f48.gif

 

attachicon.gif f72.gif

yeh but its prob 75 miles east , so 850`s a little better , and as it is , it still may be close to 1.50 qpf and its a little colder . - I dont know how keep the qpf , with a slower phase and a slighty less deep storm than at 0z

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yeh but its prob 75 miles east , so 850`s a little better , and as it is , it still may be close to 1.50 qpf and its a little colder . - I dont know how keep the qpf , with a slower phase and a slighty less deep storm than at 0z

 

Either way, the Euro still gets the points in my book for seeing the southern stream development potential

while the GFS was flat. But the Euro's weakness is in exactly this type of pattern when it tries to phase

to quickly.

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Either way, the Euro still gets the points in my book for seeing the southern stream development potential

while the GFS was flat.

Its embedded in the model SE bias , cant be helped ...

Euro and JMA 1.50 ish over NYC - mostly frozen , insane considering where we came from with this .

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We still get a nice snow event. That's all that matters.

It still has to be monitored very closely-the Euro was quite close to having this be too progressive for much snow here at all and going back to an exclusively New England event. 0z tonight should hopefully give us all more clarity, if the Euro trends east again I'd be about ready to write it off given how insanely progressive this winter has been.

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One thing on this run that popped up that i saw - and maybe its ticky tacky but its a little swing wide right - small only about 75 miles east of the 0z guidance , then it gets captured so its a cold run with that solution .

lets hope thats not a trend , The GFS will cool . It`s all in the timing , mayb its nothing , but im just looking

at what can go wrong thats all .

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