SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12 GEFS looks good. Slightly colder, more snow for our area. Still a bit of rain in the beginning however. Can you post the images? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeh thats why I think Long Island will eventually have a BLIZZ warning before its over . Tide wise, it would be better for us for the surge to peak at the Friday evening high tide. That's the lower of the two daily high tides. the Saturday morning tide cycle will be the higher of the two tides during the new moon higher monthly tides. The GFS run would be really rough for the eastern sections up through New England sat am. Will be interesting to see what the Euro shows on the next run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What did that graphic depict for NYC/Long Island? 29 for NYC and 16-ish inches @ FOK or MTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I can't believe NBC4 actually posted that ridiculous accumulation graphic on this morning. I got a frantic phone call from my parents asking about it when they watched. No way imaginable we see anything like that. news 4 nyc are freaking morons for posting that. They caused panic in the NYC area by doing this, it's all over facebook, people think its really going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 UKMET for reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah, I don't care what the precip maps show; that is snow, and lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ya i was just gonna say dsnow...snowgoose was 100% correct, the actual maps indicate this is mostly snow on the cmc. Great trend at play here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The UKMET/CMC have the later phase like the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 uk and cmc both have more snow for us than the gfs and nam though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The UKMET/CMC have the later phase like the GFS and NAM. looking at the e-wall maps, the GGEM is stronger with the northern stream and phases earlier than the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 uk and cmc both have more snow for us than the gfs and nam though.... I wouldn't focus too much on amounts since those models are not always the greatest with surface low development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The later phase is ok assuming the system doesn't escape to the Northeast as quickly, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The UKMET/CMC have the later phase like the GFS and NAM. Cmc looks like a faster phase and rarer snowy regardless what those precip maps show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 looking at the e-wall maps, the GGEM is stronger with the northern stream and phases earlier than the 00z run The CMC closes off a little later than the GFS, but that may be the progressive bias at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The precip type map is grossly off, that's snow. BEAUTIFUL map right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12Z GGEM total snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 MT Holly (usually very conservative) ups the Ante BIG time in special update ' Chances of heavy snowfall have significantly increase' http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 JMA trended colder it appears...cant see prior frame obviously but it looks that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_THK_WINTER-CRITICAL_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Any concerns for LI being all rain or mixing? Storm wraps up so quickly I am worried it pulls in a lot of warm air at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 These models with these straight North/South rain/snow lines are way way out to lunch!!! My gut is we see something similar to November where the dynamic cooling goes to town as winds switch North and totals are much more East/West based then North/South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EURO anyone? I would think it will trend closer to the rest of the guidance which all is in pretty good agreement we get in on some snow, but not big amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 euro is out to 30. Without comparing side by side there doesn't appear to be any MAJOR differences between 00z and 12z yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EURO anyone? I would think it will trend closer to the rest of the guidance which all is in pretty good agreement we get in on some snow, but not big amounts... It's out to hr 30. Will start posting when we get closer. Everything through 30 looks the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 36 digging the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12Z GGEM total snow. ggem_total_snow.jpg Judging by the temp maps, that map is totally wrong for the southern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 42 1012 in se Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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