IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM has more snow for the area than the GFS - 6z NAM for KSWF 130208/0900Z 27 09009KT 24.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0130208/1000Z 28 08008KT 23.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0130208/1100Z 29 08008KT 23.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0130208/1200Z 30 08008KT 24.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z 31 08008KT 25.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0130208/1400Z 32 08010KT 27.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0130208/1500Z 33 08010KT 30.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0130208/1600Z 34 09011KT 31.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0130208/1700Z 35 09011KT 31.7F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0130208/1800Z 36 08011KT 31.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040 9:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z 37 07013KT 30.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 9:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0130208/2000Z 38 06014KT 29.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 8:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0130208/2100Z 39 07012KT 30.1F SNPL 3:1| 0.2|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.056 7:1| 2.2|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.31 63| 37| 0130208/2200Z 40 07011KT 30.5F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 7:1| 2.5|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0130208/2300Z 41 06012KT 30.1F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 7:1| 2.7|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0130209/0000Z 42 06014KT 29.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 7:1| 3.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z 43 05014KT 29.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 7:1| 3.5|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.50 100| 0| 0130209/0200Z 44 04014KT 28.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 7:1| 4.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0130209/0300Z 45 03015KT 27.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 7:1| 4.5|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.60 100| 0| 0130209/0400Z 46 02015KT 26.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 8:1| 5.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0130209/0500Z 47 01016KT 25.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 8:1| 5.9|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.71 100| 0| 0130209/0600Z 48 01018KT 24.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 9:1| 6.6|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.76 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z 49 36020KT 21.3F SNOW 16:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 9:1| 7.5|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.82 100| 0| 0130209/0800Z 50 36020KT 18.6F SNOW 20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 10:1| 8.5|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.87 100| 0| 0130209/0900Z 51 35020KT 16.8F SNOW 19:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 10:1| 9.8|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.94 100| 0| 0130209/1000Z 52 35019KT 16.1F SNOW 20:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089 11:1| 11.6|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.03 100| 0| 0130209/1100Z 53 35018KT 16.4F SNOW 21:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088 12:1| 13.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.11 100| 0| 0130209/1200Z 54 35018KT 16.6F SNOW 16:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 12:1| 14.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.18 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z 55 35019KT 16.8F SNOW 16:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 12:1| 15.3|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.23 100| 0| 0130209/1400Z 56 34019KT 17.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 12:1| 15.8|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.27 100| 0| 0130209/1500Z 57 34020KT 17.5F SNOW 17:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 13:1| 16.2|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.30 100| 0| 0130209/1600Z 58 34019KT 17.5F SNOW 18:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 13:1| 16.7|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.32 100| 0| 0130209/1700Z 59 35019KT 18.4F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 13:1| 16.9|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.34 100| 0| 0130209/1800Z 60 35020KT 20.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 13:1| 17.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.34 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1900Z 61 34021KT 22.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 17.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 1.34 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone want to hazard a guess for Brooklyn's weather at 6 AM tomorrow, then at 2 PM, before a drive to Philly or Amtrak ( if running ), at 4 PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Latest map from Upton as of about an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone want to hazard a guess for Brooklyn's weather at 6 AM tomorrow, then at 2 PM, before a drive to Philly or Amtrak ( if running ), at 4 PM? Not a met but based off a blend of the guidance. 6AM light snow, 2PM wintry mix, 4PM Heavy Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6z GFS Bufkit outputs give 6-10" for the NW burbs and about 4-6" for the city into western Long Island. Actually gives KMMU the most at 8". Lots of hints at deformation/secondary max zones in the Great NW. Short range models may help us start to pin that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Convection continue to look great down in the gulf http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MOB&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Would you be able to point out the hints you are seeing? (Not being sarcastic, I'm just not skilled enough to see it). Lots of hints at deformation/secondary max zones in the Great NW. Short range models may help us start to pin that down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think a call for 6-12 in. from C NJ to NYC is a good call. As you head out towards LI, 12-16 in. SREF's show that we don't have much wiggle room for big snows. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 @BigJoeBastardi: The ghost of the Lindsay storm lurks with NYC ground 0 for the biggest forecast headache. could see my 4-8 winding up 10-15 short there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's getting to be crunch time now. I fully expect the American models to come around at 12z and for the Euro to hold serve or improve. With that being said 6-12" will end up being a conservative forecast. Not a bad forecast, just conservative, with 12-18"+ likely anywhere away from the immediate city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Please try to include images with model interpretations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREF >0.25" really shows where the best deform banding is expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Please try to include images with model interpretations My bad. I am mobile. Looking at the north to south orientation of heavier precip fields N and W of NYC, there seems a gap between that and the rest of the CCB to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Those srefs were not exactly the best for us lol. Need them to come much closer to the coast, which most of the 6z suite did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 9z SREFS pushed totals to 1.75-2" west back to CT/NY border with 2-2.5" out on central and eastern LI. Looks like the city is in the 1.75"-2" area first cut of yellow is 1.75"-2" second cut is 2-2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 09z SREF's are in. Tracks the low right over the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 09z SREF's are in. Tracks the low right over the benchmark Is that better, worse, or simialr to the last set of SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 New SREF mean is everything you could hope for...more precip and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 New SREF's get some of the better deform banding much further NW. Good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39234-february-8th-9th-potential-bomb-part-iii/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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