Metsfan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I still think some rain is on the table for LI, but it's slowly dwindling, because each model came in colder. Also model text outputs have more of a northeast comp to the wind today than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is faster with the precip compared to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Blizzard watch for Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is faster with the precip compared to the Euro. That's because of the handle of the Southern S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Blizzard watch for Suffolk. It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wonder if they extend that watch to Nassau later was a bit surprised it was just for Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Blizzard watch for Suffolk. And there it is!! They were mentioning blizzard conditions since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wonder if they extend that watch to Nassau later was a bit surprised it was just for Suffolk Same wording as the WSW except for visibility, which is odd given it describes the same snow and wind forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just amazing that we are pulling another KU event out of our collective rears in a bad pattern. What a decade!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Blizzard watch for Suffolk. Just saw that - as of 627AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just amazing that we are pulling another KU event out of our collective rears in a bad pattern. What a decade!! Thank the mjo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wonder why not for rest of area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Didn't Uncle W show that KU events happen in a -Neutral ENSO more than a +Neutral ENSO which we are in right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wonder why not for rest of area Strange given the nearly identical discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This remains a storm where I'm still uncertain how much snow ill get. The WSW is 4-10 inches yet various models range anywhere from 6-12+, latest euro was over a foot but gfs was prob 4-8. I hope this finally gets sorted out by the next model cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Didn't Uncle W show that KU events happen in a -Neutral ENSO more than a +Neutral ENSO which we are in right now? We are "technically" neutral negative right now, if you go strictly by ENSO region SSTA's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That Euro snowfall map makes me want to puke here in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We are "technically" neutral negative right now, if you go strictly by ENSO region SSTA's... ssta_c.gif My point exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 My point exactly. Yeah, I was a little unclear on your point, sorry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That Euro snowfall map makes me want to puke here in DC. Don't worry. You're next, I think in a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Upton says they might extend the blizzard watch further West to include NYC and the Hudson valley based om future model runs...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Whatever rain falls is going to turn into a sheet of ice under the heavy snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This remains a storm where I'm still uncertain how much snow ill get. The WSW is 4-10 inches yet various models range anywhere from 6-12+, latest euro was over a foot but gfs was prob 4-8. I hope this finally gets sorted out by the next model cycle NYC is most likely 10" out of a potential 14" max. (ratio of 10 * 1.4"QPF) In other words we waste about a third of the QPF in sleet, ice etc. This is from the Plume Viewer, Lga, 03Z. Boston progged at 31" with little wasted QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think a call for 6-12 in. from C NJ to NYC is a good call. As you head out towards LI, 12-16 in. SREF's show that we don't have much wiggle room for big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 My point exactly. February 1967 and February 2006 had ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies in the -0.75°C to -0.25°C range. February 1967 also had teleconnections similar to those forecast for the upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 February 1967 and February 2006 had ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies in the -0.75°C to -0.25°C range. February 1967 also had teleconnections similar to those forecast for the upcoming storm. Thanks for the information. I learn something new everyday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Blizzard watches won't make it this far west unless the Euro Ens mslp placement is right. Need to be closer to the low. I do still think a general 12-18" is coming with lollipops of 24+" N&E of NYC. That was my first and will be my only call. The Euro/Ens have decimated the other models with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Blizzard watches won't make it this far west unless the Euro Ens mslp placement is right. Need to be closer to the low. I do still think a general 12-18" is coming with lollipops of 24+" N&E of NYC. That was my first and will be my only call. The Euro/Ens have decimated the other models with this system. Fully agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think a call for 6-12 in. from C NJ to NYC is a good call. As you head out towards LI, 12-16 in. SREF's show that we don't have much wiggle room for big snows. Good call. Conservative if the Euro Ens win. I think the wild card will be the deformation zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6z GFS Bufkit outputs give 6-10" for the NW burbs and about 4-6" for the city into western Long Island. Actually gives KMMU the most at 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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