RU848789 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Assuming the Euro doesn't fizzle, I'd expect Upton to post winter storm watches with the afternoon package (and even the northern part of the Mt. Holly AFD), since watches are done largely to raise awareness about a potential major snowstorm and we potentially have a major snowstorm coming and no new important data will be coming in until tonight's 0Z runs. Watches are usually posted 24-48 hours in advance of arrival and we'll be within about 36 hours of arrival at 4 pm today. Of course, I could be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Most big events in the NE US end up having a sharp cutoff and somebody ends up getting screwed. I was highlighting the primary dying out in the OV Miller-b type rather than the miller A miss that portions of the MA saw with boxing day. The antecedent warmth that the OV primary will bring complicates things even more as there would be warmth to overcome rather than starting out cold from the beginning. If this was a miller A, we wouldn't have to worry about the timing of closing off as much since we would have more time to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The models appear to still be trending, I don't think they are done trending just yet. Based on what I'm seeing, I'm fully aboard now (fingers crossed). I think the Euro will stay the course and not back off because like I said, I think the other models are still trending towards it. I think what's important to note is that now that the GFS has improved, a compromise between the Euro and GFS is actually a very snowy solution for us. Whereas previously, a compromise between the two models was not necessarily a snowy solution for us. This is why I'm more confident now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Slightly off topic, but I am extremely concerned about the areas, especially in the coastal communities, that were the hardest hit by Sandy. Many areas have not even halfway recovered as of yet. The new moon coming up means we would see higher than average tides, and the wind potential would certainly be high. Hopefully the maximum potential from that stays in areas that weren't as heavily damaged as we were, but in Long Beach alone there are many people still living in homes with no heat. Flooding is always another concern as well given the beaten up shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 that is almost a complete rain event It's better than the 0z run. Trends my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The New Moon will also be a big issue with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 that is almost a complete rain event It is verbatim but the GEM looks to phase everything 6 hours or so before the GFS and as we know while the RGEM pytpes are often very accurate inside 24-36 the GGEM's are warm in a situation when you're in the CCB portion of a storm, I'd say by this point below NYC/LI are snowing and there is plenty to come after.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Slightly off topic, but I am extremely concerned about the areas, especially in the coastal communities, that were the hardest hit by Sandy. Many areas have not even halfway recovered as of yet. Winds will be North at the time they are strongest hence a lessened chance for coastal flooding. Plus largest seas will be directed away from the area. Kind of like the November noreaster when there was much fear and little if any damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Waiting on Euro (don't expect any changes) then pulling the trigger and going to Boston tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's better than the 0z run. Trends my friend. yah but say that then, not that it is on board because it isnt re: a snowstorm in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The GEM is now likely snowier than the GFS here and closer to the Euro, it may not show that but it likely is, the GGEM has major issues showing ptypes 1 or 2 categories too warm often on these bombing coastals. not according to that link Snow88 posted.... sans the precip type maps, i always find it difficult to read the GGEM maps... are you assuming that the GGEM is snowier or have you analyzed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro is pulling a Sandy. Welcome back, old friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Take a MACRO view of this , there is not 1 MODEL warmer than 24 hours ago . EVERY model has trended better , the question is when does that stop .... Lets see if the Euro is locked on here . But how can anyone not see that as many times we see stuff break down , this has coming closer to what we want . As is , if we blended all the models its our biggest storm since NOV . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 not according to that link Snow88 posted.... sans the precip type maps, i always find it difficult to read the GGEM maps... are you assuming that the GGEM is snowier or have you analyzed? Using experience more than anything, I think by 63 hours its snow on the GEM even though it shows the R/S line sitting just north of the Metro area...its just not likely once the coastal has taken over and is sub 990 that we would not see the R/S line into at least central-eastern LI...the GEM for whatever reason likes to be too warm on ptypes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It is verbatim but the GEM looks to phase everything 6 hours or so before the GFS and as we know while the RGEM pytpes are often very accurate inside 24-36 the GGEM's are warm in a situation when you're in the CCB portion of a storm, I'd say by this point below NYC/LI are snowing and there is plenty to come after.... thanks for the explanation - ignore my last post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Using experience more than anything, I think by 63 hours its snow on the GEM even though it shows the R/S line sitting just north of the Metro area...its just not likely once the coastal has taken over and is sub 990 that we would not see the R/S line into at least central-eastern LI...the GEM for whatever reason likes to be too warm on ptypes. much appreciated, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 not according to that link Snow88 posted.... sans the precip type maps, i always find it difficult to read the GGEM maps... are you assuming that the GGEM is snowier or have you analyzed? He posted that he sees that the GGEM phases earlier than the GFS (6 hours or so) which is in line with the 0z Euro so correct for the poor precip depiction known to plague the GGEM as a huge bias in these types of storms and bam you have a snowier result than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Waiting on Euro (don't expect any changes) then pulling the trigger and going to Boston tomorrow night. Hopefully you won't have to go anywhere is the Euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39203-feb-8th-9th-potential-significant-coastal-storm/page-26? my bad prob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 thanks for the explanation - ignore my last post And as a result you can ignore my last one as well lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the models which show ccb overhead and precip type issues from experiences we've all had it should bring us pause that it will unfold like that. If the phase occurs too late, a la the NAM, then we get crappy warm air advection form the northern stream s/w and rain. In basically every other situation, unless the low tucks into the coast too much (which no model shows), we have a healthy development of the CCB at least overhead, if not slightly earlier. What that means to me at least is that we should still manage significant accumulations UNLESS the trends reverse and we get a late phase. A phase on top of us or further south should yield healthy precip amounts with crashing temps, dynamic cooling and heavy precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The latest RPM has over 20 inches of snow for our area. I can't believe NBC4 actually posted that ridiculous accumulation graphic on this morning. I got a frantic phone call from my parents asking about it when they watched. No way imaginable we see anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Twin exit regions post phase with a strong high to the north would probably mean gusts approaching hurricane force out toward CC and the Islands on the GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the models which show ccb overhead and precip type issues from experiences we've all had it should bring us pause that it will unfold like that. If the phase occurs too late, a la the NAM, then we get crappy warm air advection form the northern stream s/w and rain. In basically every other situation, unless the low tucks into the coast too much (which no model shows), we have a healthy development of the CCB at least overhead, if not slightly earlier. What that means to me at least is that we should still manage significant accumulations UNLESS the trends reverse and we get a late phase. A phase on top of us or further south should yield healthy precip amounts with crashing temps, dynamic cooling and heavy precip rates. Right-I think if we get a good amount of the CCB overhead it's likely to be very heavy snow. Places might struggle initially but the same process in developing that banding will also crash the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I can't believe NBC4 actually posted that ridiculous accumulation graphic on this morning. I got a frantic phone call from my parents asking about it when they watched. No way imaginable we see anything like that. What did that graphic depict for NYC/Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Twin exit regions post phase with a strong high to the north would probably mean gusts approaching hurricane force out toward CC and the Islands on the GFS run. GFS_3_2013020612_F66_WSPD_300_MB.png Yeh thats why I think Long Island will eventually have a BLIZZ warning before its over . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What did that graphic depict for NYC/Long Island? 29 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12 GEFS looks good. Slightly colder, more snow for our area. Still a bit of rain in the beginning however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 29 inches 29 inches for NYC proper? for long island too? surreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the 4.9in of liquid and 50 something inches of snow for boston reminds me of dec 09 in DC and baltimore where the NAM came in one run all of a sudden with a snow bomb and something like 60 inches lol. Reality was still almost two feet. Although qpf was not nearly as high as what is currently predicted, maybe only 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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