Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFs are a good bit east of the 21z run with the surface reflection...and not just a tick either. Still end up getting a similar amount of precip into our area, and colder as well since its further east. Also looks slightly stronger? That Seems to be the trend tonight...now lets just hope this stays put and stops trending east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 06z NAM digging the northern stream energy farther south by a good bit once again through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 More digging with the northern stream, and more height rises in North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And the Mass 3 hour snow maps are INSANE. Hour 63 in MA is just about the craziest thing I have ever seen You can tell there is a plotting error there. That is a 6 hr qpf/snow plot. if you zoom out a little, note the precip along both the occlusion/warm front and its total lack of movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM is still kinda shearing out the southern stream again, but big improvements with the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 EC ensembles are a hair NW of the OP Euro per Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 The Euro ensembles are extremely exciting...closer to the coast, much stronger..and colder than the 12z Euro ensembles which were good enough as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow, check out the HPC's winter page. They give for NYC: 40-50% of >8" 20-30% of >12" 5-10% of >18" And their experimental 95th-percentile maps show 18-24" for most of NYC metro. Not sure what this new product means though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The Euro ensembles are extremely exciting...closer to the coast, much stronger..and colder than the 12z Euro ensembles which were good enough as it is. Fabulous 3am news right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I tell you, the NAM gives an impressive snowstorm for the synoptic desert of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Fabulous 3am news right here They look like well over 1" liquid anywhere from Newark east/northeast and I see no reason to believe it isn't all snow north of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The Euro ensembles are extremely exciting...closer to the coast, much stronger..and colder than the 12z Euro ensembles which were good enough as it is. It's consistency has matched that of sandy. This model doesn't blow big ticket items. Its a wrap for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If the NAM didn't shear out the southern stream again we would have seen a wild solution, that northern stream vort is very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At the very least this run of the nam should have backlash snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM is trying really hard to tuck this N stream feature in south of Long Island now...you can see it trending that way over the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 They look like well over 1" liquid anywhere from Newark east/northeast and I see no reason to believe it isn't all snow north of Trenton.blizzard ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Actually it's more QPF than that on the Euro ensembles...the CCB is still sitting overhead at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 blizzard ? Hard to say really...New England, NYC east...Long Island..CT..etc are essentially looking at a historic winter storm on this ensemble mean. Pretty simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM just a tick closer. The surface low is much more tucked in when compared to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM closing off H5 in SE PA. LIke i said, if the southern stream was stronger like the euro we would have seen a monster solution. We are trending this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hard to say really...New England, NYC east...Long Island..CT..etc are essentially looking at a historic winter storm on this ensemble mean. Pretty simple. And this is deadly range for the Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Light to mod snow on nam at hr 48. . 988 se of the tip of Long Island 06z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Huge trend as the NAM is taking the northern stream vort and slipping it underneath us now into PA and the Mason Dixon Line. We were a hair away from seeing a Euro-esq solution on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Huge trend as the NAM is taking the northern stream vort and slipping it underneath us now into PA and the Mason Dixon Line. We were a hair away from seeing a Euro-esq solution on this run. At this point there is no doubt in my mind the tri-state area sees a hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 51 mod snow for city and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 54 continued mod snow for city. Euro showing us who is still king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like the NAM is just playing catch up at this point. Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Boston might get like 4" qpf this run..no joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like it phased just a hair to late for us, but its definitely on board now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The vortmax continues to shift further south, and our storm closes off earlier. The vortmax is in northern Virginia now. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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