Absolute Humidity Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anybody have any estimates on Euro for Philly? 4"+? Per Wunderground snowfall animation looks like Philly has 4" - 8" based on 1-2" per 6hr x 4. As for Northern Ocean and Monmouth, 9 - 16" with a thin slice of 12"- 18" right along northern coastal Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 just for a party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 just for a party! Yea my moms best friends son. Lol Want my flight to be cancelled so bad!! I cannot miss the biggest storm in 2 years! I live in central LI which is currently projected to have about 2 in more than NYC because of qpf as the low develops. Also a very strong possibility of a heavy band of snow across western Suffolk, where I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Areas in LA have received up too .60 of an inch in 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 interesting... the 4km NAM and EC models, both superior handling of convection, but the 0z outcomes are pretty different the 0z 4km Nam runs this thing much deeper and closer to coast, would raise more taint issues than we're currently thinking: cld60.gif They are quite different, and to a degree, you can not expect a perfect simulation from any model at this time frame given the sensitivity, but they are actually not far off in how they develop the southern stream low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I highly recommend you guys look at the wundermap snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am taking American and have talked to a person who works as a dispatcher. He said airlines have pre planned cancellations for a situation like this. I hope it gets cancelled, I want the snow! Going with my family to Cali for only a day and a half for a party. Some future radars showed light snow in the area by that time. i believe most carriers have already announced they're waiving rebooking fees (not sure though if there's a time criteria) so you should call American soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If the Euro verifies, do you think NYC will get a Blizzard warning - I'm not sure winds will be that strong (I could Nassau, and Suffolk being under one) - We have however seen countless storms where a blizzard warning was issued without the minimum wind conditions. Ultimately I don't think so, but the 21z SREFs were damn close to criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yea my moms best friends son. Lol Want my flight to be cancelled so bad!! I cannot miss the biggest storm in 2 years! I live in central LI which is currently projected to have about 2 in more than NYC because of qpf as the low develops. Also a very strong possibility of a heavy band of snow across western Suffolk, where I am HA...be careful though, they could just rebook you an hour or two later, no guarantee if they cancel it they'll push you to the next day, especially since flight loads are somewhat light this week because the vacations are not for another week or two so there will be empty seats probably on other flights for them to move people on if they cut some others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sorry for the imby post, on mobile and driving to moms house in Belmar nj Friday after work from Lancaster. Is there a particular "safe" hour to pretty much be where ya have to get to (accordin to this models run?) I know sometimes coastal Monmouth does quite well in situations like this especially with a defo stubborn band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I highly recommend you guys look at the wundermap snowfall maps. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I highly recommend you guys look at the wundermap snowfall maps. I'm on Weatherunderground. Where do I go to view the maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LI'm on Weatherunderground. Where do I go to view the maps? go to wundermap and then look for models (euro) and you can change to 3 hour snowfall http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=40.70286179&lon=-73.87973785&zoom=8&pin=Ridgewood%2c%20NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LI'm on Weatherunderground. Where do I go to view the maps? http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Then go down to model data, click the settings icon, and change model run to ecmf, and map type to snowfall This is 3 hour snowfall, not sure how to get total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Honestly, I have not been looking as closely as I had during Boxing Day. I have been pretty busy up here in AK with our own crazy weather and have mostly been glancing at times the last 24 hours for this storm. IMO though, this storm has all the classic challenges Miller A type events usually have...and that is the formation and development of that southern anomaly. I strongly favor the ECMWF solutions mainly due to superior handling of convection (it is definitely "down-tuned compared to the GFS...likely due to its higher resolution) as well as its past performance in similar situations. The NAM and GFS seem very odd developing what looks to be substantial frontal convection...which then races northeastward and forces/forms the low in that direction. It seems especially odd considering no models are forming a well developed/elongated warm front...which would tend to result in moist convection forming along the nose of the LLJ then propagate eastward along the front. The reason I mentioned the 4 km NAM is mainly because it is not running convective parameterizations, and it will "potentially" have a better handle on how the diabatic anomaly forms as thunderstorms/convection blossom. Thanks for taking the time. As always, you make some very interesting points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Heat Island in effect tonight, low was supposed to be 21, been steady at 29 now for 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro maps on wundermap not so impressive for me, but LI, dayum. Actually, 12-18 for me too. Double that out on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And the Mass 3 hour snow maps are INSANE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro maps on wundermap not so impressive for me, but LI, dayum. Hour 63 in MA is just about the craziest thing I have ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hour 63 in MA is just about the craziest thing I have ever seen 16-20" in 6 hours there. 10-12 from hour 63-66. Ridik. I actually get 12-18". Not too shabby. The island gets double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And the Mass 3 hour snow maps are INSANE. 4 inch an hour rates maaan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hour 63 in MA is just about the craziest thing I have ever seen I though that too but it turns from a 3 hour map to a 6 hour map after hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I though that too but it turns from a 3 hour map to a 6 hour map after hour 60 Are you sure about that? Goes from hr 60-63-66 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 03z srefs out a little drier than previous run still 1.5+ NYC east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 03z srefs out a little drier than previous run still 1.5+ NYC east Basically looks like the Euro. 1-1.5" for all with the mslp a bit east of 21z. Very cold and all snow after some light rain/drizzle initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow up to 1.15in now In LA in 2:45 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 3z SREF http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&cycle=03ℑ=sref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_051_mslp.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&cycle=03ℑ=sref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_054_mslp.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=03ℑ=sref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_057_precip_p24.gif Nice hit. Colder on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFs are a good bit east of the 21z run with the surface reflection...and not just a tick either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Are you sure about that? Goes from hr 60-63-66 for me. Hmm yea, now theirs an extra frame in there, maybe its a glitch idk, it was missing before (it goes from 13" to 1" in one frame so idk lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It isn't exactly surprising they ticked eased based on most of the 00z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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