Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow, this run is really cold. 850 0 line doesn't even get close to NYC. and 32 degree isotherm starts in central westchester at 42 and drops swiftly with the beginning of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Doug, could you tell me what it's like around PHL? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow, this run is really cold. 850 0 line doesn't even get close to NYC. Yea, I knew that would be the case eventually, too many things favoring a cold scenario. - Water temp - Climatology - Big strong high - CCB - Heavy precip - Even the ground is frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Over 12 inches of snow on this run for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'll happily take all-snow and less totals than deal with a rain-snow line. Dr. No remains King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The ukmet despite its furthest east scenario still throws back some snows to nyc/n-nj That lends some idea that the GFS idea is not cracked, there is a real odd evolution of the primary being sucked into the NW Quad and giving snow to NYC on both the GFS/UKMET, its somewhat strange but maybe legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ORH_wxman, on 07 Feb 2013 - 01:08, said: Looks like LI gets hit hard after some initial mixing issues. OVer a foot for them. JGNYK03, on 07 Feb 2013 - 01:08, said: they do great.. over a foot i would guestimate.. everyone from nyc to boston gets 1.5-2.5" qpf.. 15-25" with isolated 30"+ throughout the region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 this is an interesting model war, reminds me o i think i twas jan 96, whn the euro nver budged....lets hope the end result in terms of accuracy is right. Yes,. that's correct, Ace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we saw this in dec 2010, euro always has the best handle on the southern stream convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So people say its not better than last night when it was showing 12-24 and on the new england forum they are mentioning 15-25 for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 truly amazing the nam is so far away but trending... watch the 6z match the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we saw this in dec 2010, euro always has the best handle on the southern stream convection Yea tracking that storm was epic, didn't the euro lose it at 12z the day before but the 18z GFS picked it up again (then all the 0zs confirmed it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes,. that's correct, Ace. im not ace, as i am sure he will quickly tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Would someone please post how much precip gets thrown back into the Lehigh Valley on this run? I know I'm in the wrong regional thread, but the other appears dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i mean verbatim nyc does not changeover and its all snow. close to 2.00 (maybe 1.8-1.9) wont know for sure unless someone has bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 truly amazing the nam is so far away but trending... watch the 6z match the euro easy bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we saw this in dec 2010, euro always has the best handle on the southern stream convection Its not uncommon for thr NAM to suffer major convective feedback, there was a storm in either 09-10 or 10-11 when up until 30 hours before the NAM was having 4 low centers off NC. Its somewhat rare though for the GFS to suffer that fate, I'm not sure it did tonight but there was some funny things with its precip shield making me think it might have, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Doug, could you tell me what it's like around PHL? Thx. Looks like about an inch of QPF. I'll look at temps in a sec but this is a pretty cold run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So people say its not better than last night when it was showing 12-24 and on the new england forum they are mentioning 15-25 for nyc 15-25" going by the euro is probably right for NYC, assuming it verifies, which it well might. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Although it is a good sign the euro didn't change, I doubt the weenie suicide threats will stop tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 we saw this in dec 2010, euro always has the best handle on the southern stream convection Yes, exactly. The convection is behaving a very similar way. That storm was how I even learned about the positive feedback process with convection with respect to height rises downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 15-25" going by the euro is probably right for NYC, assuming it verifies, which it well might. WX/PT this made me smile. you've been pretty negative all season on our snow threats and almost always right. I hope you score one here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As has been said in the past, the ETA should have never been replaced...I think it would have done better than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like about an inch of QPF. I'll look at temps in a sec but this is a pretty cold run. Thanks so much..Philly board "dead" tonight!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like about an inch of QPF. I'll look at temps in a sec but this is a pretty cold run. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The Euro Ensembles hinted at this happening all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Its not uncommon for thr NAM to suffer major convective feedback, there was a storm in either 09-10 or 10-11 when up until 30 hours before the NAM was having 4 low centers off NC. Its somewhat rare though for the GFS to suffer that fate, I'm not sure it did tonight but there was some funny things with its precip shield making me think it might have, I read the 0 z runs went off great with drop zone data...no reported issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That is completely ridiculous and asinie to be predicting or even suggesting 15-25 inches of snow with isolated 30 inch amounts for the NYC area. That is WNBC news esque, nothing supports such snow totals, not even this latest run of the euro. Total wishcast and ludicrous nothing supports these amounts, not even the euro, which shows these amounts? not really sure what you're saying. Who knows if it'll happen but that is 12-18 easy on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There is tons of lightning evident in the convection located in the gulf if Mexico someone posted a pic in the NE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As has been said in the past, the ETA should have never been replaced...I think it would have done better than the NAM. The NMM which has some characteristics still of the old ETA has certainly been doing better than the NAM if you assume the Euro is right that is...here is its 21Z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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