Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NOUS42 KWNO 070259ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0256Z THU FEB 07 2013THE 00Z GFS MODEL STARTED ON TIME. IN ADDITION TO GOOD NORTHAMERICAN RAOB COVERAGE...10 GULF OF MEXICO DROPSONDES AND 13FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE FOR MODEL INGEST COURTESY OFA USAF RESERVE WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE MISSION.HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP thanks http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Im going to light a candle for the euro to keep showing 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NOUS42 KWNO 070259ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0256Z THU FEB 07 2013THE 00Z GFS MODEL STARTED ON TIME. IN ADDITION TO GOOD NORTHAMERICAN RAOB COVERAGE...10 GULF OF MEXICO DROPSONDES AND 13FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE FOR MODEL INGEST COURTESY OFA USAF RESERVE WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE MISSION.HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP This gives me more reason to favor the GFS personally. Always good to get good sampling of active convective areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well, that's a little extreme, but top 10 storm lol. Yeah, I know but extreme is my middle name lol. We shall see. Would feel a whole lot better if the Euro phases earlier and kills that primary quicker than what the rest of the 0z suite shows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So it won't be a megastorm, big whoop. Be happy to get a solid event. The gfs looks good for that, the Nam is still being the Nam. I'm hoping the Euro clears everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This gives me more reason to favor the GFS personally. Always good to get good sampling of active convective areas. Eh, depends on where in the gulf of Mexico they dropped them, if they dropped them in the right area of the convection if at all and when they dropped them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Models will wobble back and forth dramatically with such a vigorous southern stream diabatic anomaly and the deep, moist convection that forms it. IMHO, the NAM/CMC/GFS will wobble more given their convective params than the ECMWF (especially the non-hydro 12 km NAM), and under similar events the past few years the ECMWF was most reliable with respect to moist convection and the related synoptic feedback with vigorous southern stream lows. from the new england thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NOUS42 KWNO 070259 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0256Z THU FEB 07 2013 THE 00Z GFS MODEL STARTED ON TIME. IN ADDITION TO GOOD NORTH AMERICAN RAOB COVERAGE...10 GULF OF MEXICO DROPSONDES AND 13 FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE FOR MODEL INGEST COURTESY OF A USAF RESERVE WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE MISSION. HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Bingo. We are within a critical timeframe where we might see NAM, GFS, and EURO align on time and location of the phasing. UKMET hinted at an out to sea scenario and other models moved east. I think the trend is a shift east in the Euro that will roll out tonight with lower snow totals but better distribution north and east of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 from the new england thread Models will wobble back and forth dramatically with such a vigorous southern stream diabatic anomaly and the deep, moist convection that forms it. IMHO, the NAM/CMC/GFS will wobble more given their convective params than the ECMWF (especially the non-hydro 12 km NAM), and under similar events the past few years the ECMWF was most reliable with respect to moist convection and the related synoptic feedback with vigorous southern stream lows. That is an excellent post and explanation. I now happily am comfortable discounting the GFS and NAM 0z solutions (and I mean hook, line and sinker) even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So far, I don't think this night has gone all that bad, minus the euro doing something crazy (pretty sure it won't), like i said before, this is a solid, 3-6/4-8 event for nyc which we can't complain about right now. The only total miss was the ukmet, the nam was a little freaky looking, but the nogaps, gfs, rgem, and canadian are pretty much all showing the totals I just mentioned. They phase a little late east for us, yes, but it still means a decent snow event for the city itself. I think areas west and northwest of the city get less, as I said before, but a good event for the city anyway. Just a guess, I think the euro moves toward the other solutions presented tonight with similar totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bingo. We are within a critical timeframe where we might see NAM, GFS, and EURO align on time and location of the phasing. UKMET hinted at an out to sea scenario and other models moved east. I think the trend is a shift east in the Euro that will roll out tonight with lower snow totals but better distribution north and east of LI. Lol, just because they dropped 13 dropsondes in the Gulf of Mexico? No one can know where and when they dropped them exactly and if good readings were ingested into the model to prevent convective feedback issues that could lead to incorrect solutions down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS Ensembles a hair SE of BM per ORH..that's all I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There is such a fine line with the phase that a slight mishandling in the intensity of the southern stream will throw the models off so I'm not surprised the models went east all of the sudden. They could easily shift back west tomorrow, there's still plenty of time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 gefs looks wetter than 18z for us. mostly frozen too. 0.75-1 for NNJ/NYC east edit: looks like most of NJ is 0.75+. Also just saw 18z gefs and it was wetter than 00z. not by much though, maybe 0.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ensembles: Not bad at all http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep72096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS Ensembles a hair SE of BM per ORH..that's all I know http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12048.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS really makes me question the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 gefs looks wetter than 18z for us. mostly frozen too. 0.75-1 for NNJ/NYC east edit: looks like most of NJ is 0.75+. Also just saw 18z gefs and it was wetter than 00z. not by much though, maybe 0.25 um no...not close - here is 18Z, 18z was much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 um no...not close - here is 18Z, 18z was much wetter Ya I was looking at the wrong map. corrected my original post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone agree with me that despite the fact of any big storms this winter, this it has still been awesome? especially this week. It basically snowed everyday and kept the dusting fresh. Now we're going to top it off with a nice 4-8+? I can dig it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone agree with me that despite the fact of any big storms this winter, this it has still been awesome? especially this week. It basically snowed everyday and kept the dusting fresh. Now we're going to top it off with a nice 4-8+? I can dig it Without question, blows last winter away IMHO from a boredom-excitement standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The ukmet despite its furthest east scenario still throws back some snows to nyc/n-nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Being that it was gone by morning, it was kinda worthless. Anyone agree with me that despite the fact of any big storms this winter, this it has still been awesome? especially this week. It basically snowed everyday and kept the dusting fresh. Now we're going to top it off with a nice 4-8+? I can dig it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Whatever falls from this event will be gone in a few mornings. Being that it was gone by morning, it was kinda worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GGEM gets EPA some moderate snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Without question, blows last winter away IMHO from a boredom-excitement standpoint. That isn't saying much, but yes it certainly does. I would hardly call this winter "awesome" though, these dustings have been far from exciting and have melted by the next day, and in some cases we were expecting more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That isn't saying much, but yes it certainly does. I would hardly call this winter "awesome" though, these dustings have been far from exciting and have melted by the next day, and in some cases we were expecting more. Agreed, JImmy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro time!!!!!! Who is going to do the play by play for the 0z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The Euro appears to be showing much more vorticity with the southern stream wave so far compared to 12z. (Through 12 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So far the Southern stream looks stronger at 12 hrs compared to 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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