jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 70 mph wind gusts and 3 feet of snow on the GFS for Boston Look how sharp the gradient is between that low and the high in Canada. It would be an epic scenario for them, for sure. Pending the Euro, really thinking we may have something here. I doubt we get the kind of snow Boston gets, but most of us could have a good few hours at least as the low really gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When does accumulating snow begin for NYC/LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 based on what? Well, DT has been saying that since last night. Also, it's a combination of the ECMWF/GFS/UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I bet many on here would still be mad if we got a foot and Boston and parts of SNE got 2-3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I bet many on here would still be mad if we got a foot and Boston and parts of SNE got 2-3 feet. Why?..that happens sometime..they get twice as much snow as us for a winter on average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 At least we are not talking another measly dusting per an alberta clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro and GFS now close off the 500mb low at the same time (06z Saturday). However, the Euro does it in Maryland, and the GFS pretty much does it right over our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why?..that happens sometime..they get twice as much snow as us for a winter on average Because a lot of weenies on here want as much snow as possible even though they should be happy with a 6" storm in a winter like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GGEM is finally on board. Rain to snow on the model. It really bombs out the low inside of the benchmark. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro and GFS now close off the 500mb low at the same time (06z Saturday). However, the Euro does it in Maryland, and the GFS pretty much does it right over our heads. My concern in this regard stems from the Euros poor handling of the N stream in a few events this year. If it's too energetic with that feature and backs off today, the playing field changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro and GFS now close off the 500mb low at the same time (06z Saturday). However, the Euro does it in Maryland, and the GFS pretty much does it right over our heads. Which makes at least 1 foot difference in total accumliations because of the later phase.right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro and GFS now close off the 500mb low at the same time (06z Saturday). However, the Euro does it in Maryland, and the GFS pretty much does it right over our heads. and that there is a difference between an all snow event and what we see on the GFS. A compromise between the two would probably be a beautiful event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro and GFS now close off the 500mb low at the same time (06z Saturday). However, the Euro does it in Maryland, and the GFS pretty much does it right over our heads. That will be the difference between a widespread areal 1-3 feet of snow from the NYC to Boston/SNE and what the gfs shows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 My concern in this regard stems from the Euros poor handling of the N stream in a few events this year. If it's too energetic with that feature and backs off today, the playing field changes. Right. But we are in a pesudo split flow regime, which I think plays into the Euro's strengths a bit more. Plus, there is energy diving into the western states which pumps up the ridge to begin with, and I'd think the Euro would be handling that better than other guidance -- it always seems to handle that better than other guidance. Plus, all other guidance keeps trending stronger with the northern stream. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro backed off today, but I'd be much more surprised if the GFS was done trending with its northern stream digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 one thing I've noticed is that while models (minus the euro) have persistently indicated this in the least a rain to heavy snow event, the GGEM, UK and GFS (and I guess NAM as well to a degree) have all been trending more or less to the northern stream s/w digging more and an earlier phase. I wonder if this trend continues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Which makes at least 1 foot difference in total accumliations because of the later phase.right? Most likely. Though I'd be inclined to think that the GFS might be a bit snowier than what its verbatim thermal profiles would indicate, as it may not have the resolution to handle dynamic and evaporational cooling from heavy precipitation. If we have heavy precipitation and are 850s are around 0, our sounding will most likely become isothermal, and a change over might occur quicker than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This a textbook set up for someone to end up on the wrong side of a sharp snowfall cutoff. and as usual the further E and/or NE you are the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 My concern in this regard stems from the Euros poor handling of the N stream in a few events this year. If it's too energetic with that feature and backs off today, the playing field changes. Agree. Euro must hold serve from 0z or if possible even improve it's depiction for us to be snowier than what the GFS and now it seems the GGEM depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I wouldnt be shocked too see the euro back down to a degree, but I also wouldnt be shocked if it holds it self together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 and that there is a difference between an all snow event and what we see on the GFS. A compromise between the two would probably be a beautiful event too. Yeah, you definitely gladly take the compromise. Which is why I'm much more enthused after seeing the 12z GFS. It has continued to trend towards the Euro, making me believe it is somewhat realistic for a compromise to actually occur. What I should say is that now that the GFS has made this shift, a compromise between the Euro and GFS is a very snowy solution, whereas previously, a compromise between the Euro and GFS was not a very snowy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Agree. Euro must hold serve from 0z or if possible even improve it's depiction for us to be snowier than what the GFS and now it seems the GGEM depicts. I'd think even a slightly watered down version would be okay, considering how rapidly the other guidance is shifting the northern stream energy southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 This a textbook set up for someone to end up on the wrong side of a sharp snowfall cutoff. Most big events in the NE US end up having a sharp cutoff and somebody ends up getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 and that there is a difference between an all snow event and what we see on the GFS. A compromise between the two would probably be a beautiful event too. A couple of degrees cooler on the 850-surface temps as the low bombs would likely double the snowfall output on the GFS, which is doable in my opinion due to the strong high, and dynamics. The NAM would likely handle this better but it phased later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Right. But we are in a pesudo split flow regime, which I think plays into the Euro's strengths a bit more. Plus, there is energy diving into the western states which pumps up the ridge to begin with, and I'd think the Euro would be handling that better than other guidance -- it always seems to handle that better than other guidance. Plus, all other guidance keeps trending stronger with the northern stream. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro backed off today, but I'd be much more surprised if the GFS was done trending with its northern stream digging. This right there is why I am hugging the Euro hard in this situation. Excellent point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Slightly off topic, but I am extremely concerned about the areas, especially in the coastal communities, that were the hardest hit by Sandy. Many areas have not even halfway recovered as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A lot of SNE are already under Winter Storm Watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Boston folks must be shattin their pants ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The models appear to still be trending, I don't think they are done trending just yet. Based on what I'm seeing, I'm fully aboard now (fingers crossed). I think the Euro will stay the course and not back off because like I said, I think the other models are still trending towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The GEM is now likely snowier than the GFS here and closer to the Euro, it may not show that but it likely is, the GGEM has major issues showing ptypes 1 or 2 categories too warm often on these bombing coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GGEM is finally on board. Rain to snow on the model. It really bombs out the low inside of the benchmark. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html that is almost a complete rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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